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Yes bern, they are targeting a better reservoir area at garden hill as the first well didnt hit the sweet spot, they also intend to extend the present well to improve the communication to the reservoir, then they are going to move to onshore offshore at EL1116 this is purported to be ten times larger than Garden hill estimated at 100 mill so 1116 although early days potentially has a billion in it. Early days but for me this is the time to get in early before the herds arrive, obviously the uncertainty is there like any campaign but that is where the opportunity always is early doors. But with enegi valued at £10-15 mill we can see the upside a successful campaign could bring when these wells potentially are worth well over £100 mill a piece enegi get 50% interest, this is without the buoy projects which could be bigger in value. Interestingly we are entering the phase now where several elements of news flow are expected in the next few weeks on these fronts.
Stephen, Obviously we have to have some success on one or more of the projects, but taking the NF programme its a fully paid for 12 well programme however I would only say that will happen on some success on the first drills. But BSE have financed three wells initially one to improve an already producing well the other to target a better reservoir location. Success on one drill could see 200-1000bpd and in a 100 mill field which would give us a well in value in real terms of up to £150 mill we get 50% interest that on the one well, if we hit oil on the next then who knows where we can go. The Wood group deal relies on some funding and committment from the group to implement and deliver the bouys, if we get news on this we could be looking at very big numbers for enegi in terms of market cap with such a big project on our books backed by such a large organization, the buoys are going to cost over £100 mill but in terms of unlocking marginal fields the value which can be booked for enegi would be worth several hundred million even at 10% we are looking at some very big numbers. I havent time to go into the details of the figures here but enegi will be able to book reserves for already producing fields, raise funds on it nd or farm in to unlock the value. But news is due on the vehicle that will be used to unlock the Fynn, Helvick and Dunmore fields and what sort of role The Wood Group and GMC are going to play along with the farm in partners. A heck of a lot going on, who knows where we are going from here and to what heights but it certainly looks like its up to what degree is the question.
After a few months of non activity and the sp in the gutter, the market is starting to wake up to the activities ahead short term here. I would expect an update on the Fynn field DECC submission within days as it is expected by the end of Jan. Also following, an update on The Wood Group tie in. Also any time now we should get news of rig mobilization and permits for the 3 drill programme this year in NF .Also we have updates from Azimuth Ltd on the North sea blocks due. An update on the Jordan prospect is also over due. My money is on a Fynn update followed by The Wood group. As if there wasn't enough further news on the Dunmore an Helvick field farm in is is also due, so loads of drivers ahead here now, the sp seems to be getting ready for it. EK s £1-2 prediction may be a little over ambitious short term but certainly the potential for a multibag from here short term is feasible on some positive updates.
With the sp sunken to a £10 mill market cap there are rumors of a buy out on the cheap. But will enegi succumb. Companies like to prowl round small market cap opportunities before they realize value and make their move. With enegi s buoy solution technology gaining wider industry interest The Wood group and GMC along with some mid tier players they are looking attractive at this level. When we look at the value of one marginal field of 10-20 million recoverable could be worth up to a billion to the parties involved, even if ABT/ enegi took just 10% cut that gives us a £100 mill valuation on one field alone, remember these are proven producing fields with booked reserves. With enegi targeting several projects we start to see how big this project could be in terms of value for enegi. This along with the Newfoundland project which is reported to be financed initially for 5 wells, the upside value on that project alone is well over £100 million to the company in the initial stages on a successful campaign. However I would not think the company would want to give up its assets for less than 50p a share but even at that level any company looking to take the technology forward could be looking at over ten times that value within a five year period once the projects are installed and running. This is why I think now they are looking vulnerable at this level for a larger player to come in and snap them up. Its a case now of what offer is on the table and what the Directors and shareholders will be happy with. With the Directors holding several million and the CEO several million any offer over 50p will be very temping. Watch this space.
The AGM will be held on the 28th February, see accounts report its states it there for those wondering.
Just seen the latest BSE release, they look to have secured $60-100 mill for their drill programme in NF. The news we have been waiting for. Enegi get 50% of much of that investment in real terms before any upside from delineating the NF play. Enegi s £10 mill valuation is looking a steal now with the upside from bookable reserves from the ABT deals yet to be realized, but this looks close with the Fynn deal closing in for starters in the next month and the Wood Group deal in negotiations.
funding for the projects. That will come once the Wood group put their cards on the table and rubber stamp the project for funding, that will in turn come once the DECC approve the buoy technology for the go ahead which his expected early 2014. Each project will give ABT/enegi significant exposure to large proven resources while the big engineering companies finance and develop the projects. What remains to be seen is what deal can be cut for ABT/enegi s technology, presently the company are looking at between 10-50% interest in each discovery, but I think there will be some hard bargaining, but even if 10% is achieved when we are looking at assets worth in the region of several hundred million each you can see the intrinsic value these projects should add to the companies valuation once approval is granted by the DECC and the projects are funded. The key now is to get DECC approval and a good deal in place with the Wood group this could put the company in a very strong position moving forward and also in a position to acquire further marginal assets in the North sea. I would make a prediction on securing financing on a project and DECC approval would catapult the company to well over a hundred million valuation on the ABT/ enegi projects alone. When you consider the Newfoundland projects and the ABT projects together, a conservative forecast we could easily see the company valued between £100-200 million within the year. Obviously there are hurdles to overcome but they are not insurmountable now and momentum is certainly building in all these projects with crucial news expected within Q1 2014 on progress that could be the catalyst to making this company one of the aim hits of 2014. Watch this space it could be a year to remember for this fledgling oil and gas E&P after many years in development.
The general market skeptics accompanied by the general apathy in aim oil looks like taking a turn for the better in the new year. Sentiment moves in cycles we have been in a bear trap for about a year with small cap resource companies, and with the markets generally showing more stability the aim market will start looking attractive again as so many companies significantly sold off. How will things transpire with enegi oil with this in mind in the new year. We’ll the company have managed over the last year or two to basically develop two companies on a shoe string. De risking all its Newfoundland assets and securing a 3 to 4 well drill programme next year over its Garden hill field and an appraisal well on its EL1116 license. Preliminary data suggests the first well did not hit the sweet spot but is not far off from the target producing formation where it hit the wrong side of a geological partition which resulted in only intermittent flow in the first well. However BSE are drilling three new wells in the area and data shows they know where the oil now is from their analysis of enegi s geologists data. It is hoped 250 bpd from each well is expected however as is always the case it is better to err on the side of caution rather than over expect. It is worth noting the initial analysis on hitting the target formation expected flow rates were to be between 474-5523 bpd. Rns 04/06/13 The original horizontal well report from Petra Physics Ltd. in May 2007 indicated that a suitably targeted well can produce at a range of 474 bopd to 5,523 bopd. If just the one well is successful at achieving the lower forecast that would give the company an asset of over $100 million which would be split at 50%. If the next two targets are successful then we will have three wells running at rates over 400bpd which would give the company assets ranging up to $300 million within the year at 50%. Even a conservative result could therefore value the company at around $150 million £100 million within a few months. Obviously if the higher rates are achieved then this could become significantly higher. The speculative upside from this position is very compelling, at a present valuation of £10 million. The second business which is also in its infancy now has developed into and even more compelling story than its Newfoundland assets. With the Fynn development underway and a report due to be submitted to the DECC for development this could add in real terms bookable reserves P2 of 9.9 million barrels, this could be a company maker on its own at 50% interest. Now with the Wood group expected to show its hand along with GMC regarding further commitment to the projects, also with The Helvik and Dunmore fields now also farmed in to develop along with partners Providence Resources, Atlantic Petroleum, Sosina Exploration Limited and Lansdowne Celtic Sea Limited, the projects look like gaining momentum in the new year. The key to this story now is
The first drill was drilled through winter. The weather doesn't stop professional engineers. I would expect news in shortly on work application submissions to tbe DNR. A production licence already is in place so it is all about logistics now. They are recruiting presently for the programme. But I would expect drill mobilization in the next few weeks as preparations to drill gear up, eneg have onsite staff they could utilized which I expect
We seem to have consolidated at this level. Now for the next step up we need news of rig mobilization or applications submitted to the DNR for drill approval. Pheonix or Malvinio update. To get this away from the 9p resistance. Anytime now this could arrive. I would expect a big uplift on the next piece of news flow.
Who is EK? on a successful drill campain I can't see why not and beyond with several company making wells being drilled in the next few months each potentially worth £50 million to the company. The speculative pre drill upside is significant though. Broker had us at 33p pre drill campain and Fynn news. So who knows what the speculative upside is here.
A big hitter on board with Stephen Baird, this reinforces the belief ABT has significant potential to attract such a big player to undertake commercialization of the technology. With GMC also on board with the buoy platform technology already implemented in Peru things are looking positive here. Baird also has experience in the financial markets fund raising avenues so this could be key in raising funds for the project. Good speak of extraordinary upside, lets hope this is the case and soon this can catalyze into value for enegi. This is the platform http://www.trelleborg.com/.../EN%20_T-Time%201%2013.pdf. With news progressing in NF with BSE it looks like its going to be an active few months ahead whic hshould start being reflected in the value of the company, indeed an active few years.
Sickening last two days, after a long time many months waiting for sentiment to improve. Then it starts to take a turn foe the better with broker buy recs coming in on the back of the BSE press release from over sees as far as Japan, we have been waiting for break out at 9.8p for a long time then its in the mid teens and beyond from the techs and history. This was about to happen, then this diabolical rns of no substance only to say revenue from ABT is an age away. We now go back to square one. Enegi seem to be there own worst enemy, what a disappointment this is and so unecessary. Enegi have to now do something extra ordinary to make amends. Sickened for all long suffering share holders that are enduring torture at the highest level as an investor.
If this was the rns then this is seriously bad! It can only be a prelude to a more detailed BSE rns giving more information than the press release of BSEs plans, drill target and drilling schedules along with financing details. Bad day today but tomorrows another day. Another rns by week end guaranteed, otherwise we are dealing with incompetence at the highest level.
After things were looking to break out to 10p and beyond on the BSE news this lame duck rns had quashed the positive sentiment that was building. ABT upside looks years away if it comes off. NF is the only game on town. 5 wells paid for doesn't get much better than that, but emphasis is on none revenue assets. Nightmare today and also been banned from ii again after three days. Oh dear!
Just had some communication with those close to company developments and operations. They are in the process of progressing quiet a few projects, the grapevine says a BSE update will be certain next week now as they progress plans for a drill in Autumn, also expect details of other project s by months end. But in fact next week looks like it will be a big week here. Then further regular updates into winter. Good time to be in here at these levels with much news flow ahead now. Its been said before but never have the company been in such a positive position yet with such a bombed out sp it seems. Market cap around £11 mill with over £25 million going into the first stage of drilling in just NF, has to be excellent risk reward at this level, with a successful drill that should take this well over 50p and possibly into the over a pound region on updated reserves data as the region proves up. Interesting where we will be in a month or two. Gl all in.
I strongly expect an update this week from recent comms. BSE must be in the final stages of organizing the planned drill. There always is a massive amount of work to do with environmental and safety permits to overcome. Look at the detail needed on the last drill that had to be submitted. Its a big job but they would have been working on it for some time now http://www.nr.gov.nl.ca/nr/publications/energy/volume1_fwr_pap_1_st3.pdf I expect an update this week on where they are with the submission to the DNR and the time line for drilling. Also BSE s plans for further wells. Crucially how much they have raised for drilling. Enegi are in line for the first three or four drills. If they have raised the $50 million that in effect capitalizes enegi at $25 million in real terms on this project alone before the bit hits the rock. This with an ABT update shortly, an update was due from Minty this month from his words. I expect at least two rns s this month. It is looking very intriguing here. ( feel free to post on ii, lod and co)
Again DNR meaning DECC of course.
Re to lods ii comment. Yes lod it is an interesting one. I would have thought regards the Fynn field FDP that obviously the details of implementation would require the means of funding for it to be viable. Antrim s recent interim stated they have assessed the funding vehicle for the buoy and are confident it can be achieved. I think this will have to be forthcoming in the coming few weeks and months. Minty did state this should be sorted within a few months I think it was last June/July. This will be using the present reserves data to raise on the back of the fields value. I am now waiting to see what this funding vehicle is and who is involved. But I would think some sort of secure detail would be required by the DNR to make it a feasible FDP. This could be a big player in my view, and if details are released shortly could have a dramatic impact on the companies market cap, as the funding vehicle is what could add tens of millions to the companies value. Once finance is in place it immediately re capitalizes the company and I believe this is what they have been working on for some considerable time to get the right players involved. These fields have $2 billion plus worth of recoverable oil and proven, so we can see what sort of upside can come from just one deal even if enegi only get 10-20% of the field after farming out to other investors for the financing of the project s. This I think has been overlooked as details as yet have been sketchy. But with all this working in the background and BSE news of the next drill looking like this month. Activity looks like it will be picking up significantly very shortly. 8p? has to be the best price ever, with the upside still in my view in the over the pound region easily short to medium term. Just look at the impact these two projects will have on the sp on a deal secured for implementation on just one buoy project and financing secured by BSE to exploit GH and beyond, it is massive investment for a presently £10-12 mill market cap company, do the maths. (Permission to post this on ii if you wish). Orbit.
I mean the DECC not the DNR