The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Bernie, you will always have traders they make up a large chunk of the market, news is not relevant to them only technicals, there are a portion who look at the news flow and sell on news also but you will always get swings up and down pre news. It looks consolidated it may or may not dip a bit further but support should be there now around 9-11p. Any leak or speculation news is about to break will move this quickly. It wont take much volume to get us over 10p. Some company making news is what the market is after re ABT/ BSE that could take us to new highs post 09. We will have to wait and see but not too long, next week looks odds on for news for my money.
Some profit taking yesterday from traders from the move up to 9.5 p fom 7.5. I would expect some buying pressure to start again by close as pressure builds for an imminent rns next week. It has consolidated ready for the next move. A news supported rise could easily take us out of the 10p resistance. With a lucrative Wood Group deal and a BSE update both due any time now, we should see if Minty has done the deals and take this market cap to a completely different level shortly. Lets hope there are no more set backs. But its looking good! for next week and beyond
Bernie, North Sea update option for a deal with the Wood group runs out shortly, a deal must have been finalized pending small details.DECC website changed recently on the fynn to expect first oil q4 2015 so a deal must be advanced with the Wood Group pending finalizing the many small details. It will be an involved complex arrangement with involvement with other parties like GMC to develop the system and employ it according to regs. But news on this is due imminently. BSE progress must be close regarding rig updates permits etc before an Aoril start. They will have to get three drills in this year as 1116 license has to be drilled to keep the license by year end, they paid quarter of a mill last month to keep the license for another year. So things will have to start moving very quickly in the next few weeks on that front. Good time to be in at these levels with major activity ahead on these fronts. The company has never been in this position before.
From comms I hear on the grapevine we will have a couple of rns s shortly One by months end which looks like being next week and another from BSE shortly following, these should give the market a sure indication of the committments made by the various farm in parties and partners in terms of financing the projects and their plans of action and time scales. More certainty should give s firmer valuation. If BSE have secured $40 million that will see off the first few wells. A Wood Group deal could see very big investment going into the marginal field initiative we are talking well over £100 mill, it now depends on what interest percentage abt/enegi secure, but we could be looking at a major re rating of the market cap in a very short space of time. Lets see what deals arrive but the first important piece of news is about to break. Gl all in.
That's the interesting aspect of this company. If a drill or two produces some decent flow rates then a quid and over is within reasonable reach, a market cap of 150 mill isn't massive for two producing wells at around 300 bpd each., then we have another 10 wells paid for so the upside is even greater. We don't know what value a Wood group deal will bring at this stage either, it could be a modest percentage interest. But a modest interest in several proven fields could be worth tens of if not over 100 mill to the company so talking of over a pound may not be so now.
I think with the 150 mill or 144 after the share buy back in issue and a market cap of 15 mill a good result from the first drill could take us over a pound as it will prove up the whole field as commercial and that will include 1116 and 1070 blocks as they are of the same trend, they will then be seen to be viable comnercially. But the value of the marginal field initiative could take us substantially higher before then. So presently anything between £1.00 and £1.50 is possible in 6 months. Presently practically nowt from NF has been priced in. Immediate upside should be from the North Sea followed by BSE updates which we are due in March. The upside is massive on progress but a lot of work to do yet but at these levels the opportunity is looking more feasible with the BSE deal and if a Wood Group deal is forthcoming shortly.
Didn't see you post Danpoe, yes the mail article is very curious, someone has wind of imminent news it seems and the increase in volume underscores that. The next few days are going to be very interesting as I expect news flow from several fronts to come in consecutively. Once 10p is broke accompanied by news flow this could get back to previous highs and above quite easily. This is driven by two elements speculation and news flow and we are expecting a lot of news flow starting by months end. Exciting times for share holders.
Daily Mail article today highlighted in bold, enegi s participation in the North Sea is expecting to release an update on the initiative imminently. Getting more exposure now. Hopefully the final details are being laid down before a release. Any time now. Momentum building
Expect news on a major project by Wed 26th. Could be by weekend. I would expect further buying pressure up to news, something is cooking.
Dan not on ii at mo. But I would expect some significant action here shortly, the recent activity is a bit of position building before expected news. Progress on ABT and additionally NF which is expected by month end should start to give us some bigger rises. I think the market knows what the impact of good news would bring with funding for the marginal field projects and something solid from BSE on permits and rig mobilization, this is what the market has been waiting for as there seems to be no value priced in yet, this could change shortly. A multibag in a few short months is possible and the market maybe just starting to recognize this from the value of projects we have coming on board at a present £13 mill market cap. Its going to be the most significant few weeks and months for the company since 08 and its IPO. Watch the movement.
It looks like stake building over the last two days built by speculation news is about to break next week. BSE granted permits, rig mobilization and a deal involving the Wood Group could be company making. I would expect further rises now up to news, depending how good it is sub 10p could be in a few days/weeks be seen as a give away specially considering the value just three paid for drills has intrinsically before we even hit oil, and a deal to progress the marginal field initiative forward. A multibag from this point is by no means just hope its a real possibility at this market cap, lets see what the next few days bring, I feel we are close to something big happening at last.
Indeed 162, there is no way the 100 mill drill work programme has been priced in, the market simply doesn't believe such a deal until they prove it by starting drilling and rig mobilization will indicate its a real deal. Too many set backs in the past have caused this lack of confidence. As you say this os massive investment a 12 well programme, although I would think they hope to gain income from the first three wells to help find further drills. But NF alone potentially is worth a huge amount at a 100 mill plus reservoir. EL 1116 has not been accounted for if that produces the date from seismic indicates its 10 times larger. So massive potential for such s tidler and I have not mentioned 1070. At the AGM rather ironically the North sea and marginal field projects are seen to be the companies flag ship assets so who knows what's about to happen there with the Wood Group deal but the next few weeks are going to be massive for the company and the market could finally wake up here to the upside this company has at a 13 mill company with these huge assets coming on board
He could have called it right sub 10p with some big company news due, probably the most important for the last 6 years. A Wood Group deal is expected very shortly probably next week so I expect further stake building tomorrow in anticipation of news next week. BSE news on permits funding and rig mobilization could be any time also. Two big drivers here could make a significant impact on the sp. He knows what he's doing by the looks of it. Not sure what he will trade out at though as this could go ballistic on good news as its so sold off.
Some big buys coming in today, we are expecting news by month end on a deal regarding ABT possibly funding news. I read they are looking for new licenses in the North sea on the 28th seaward round. I ask where is the funding coming from to gain these large licenses now already having four big projects in their portfolio. The North Sea project news could see a major re rating here with a cut of these fields using this proven technology. They are high flow rate billion dollar fields. More companies seems to be taking note and want a cut. Wondering what deal will come to pass with the Wood Group. But some news on this front could be company making. Not mentioning BSE news on rig deployment is due imminently. Sub 10p should be short lived now with so much news ahead. The question is what will the market value this at, certainly it has the potential to multibag on each of the projects both sides of the Atlantic when considering bookable reserves from several fields with 20-100 million plus barrels in each is possible within the year, we are not looking then at an 11 mill company but a hundred to possibly several hundred mill company even at 10-50% interest in the assets.
Alright Robin, you still invested? Is this going to be the year with BSE in play with multi wells planned and a deal s to get booked reserves from the marginal field buoy deals or another year of frustration. Things looking better than ever for an uplift but we have been disappointed so many times, will we get delivery or still be chasing the jam next year. It seems different this time lets see.The next quarter will be telling.
Pre drill 15p, hit sweet spot 50p plus, as more successful drills then could release exponential value with just 150 mill shares. 5-12 more drills will then be mobilized. But deals on the marginal field projects which we are awaiting could be equally lucrative before the bit hits the soul in NF.
Although news had to be given within 24 hours good or bad under aim regs. So if the FDA had not been submitted before the deadline we would have heard. Also there maybe some scepticism if an rns was delivered just before the agm as being manipulative, news will come when it comes not because there is an agm. However news is now due any day on various projects not least BSE developments pre drill.
Expected news on DECC projects and funding is I hear due imminently. Watch the news! in the next couple of days! Could be very significant! I will say no more.
Hopefully some positive news within the week. The Fynn submission is due by the end of the month, so thats a cert, updates any time of NF developments, some small consolidating but holding in expectation of news, now it depends on how good the news is. The market cap needs a player committing funds to the projects BSE have started but we need confirmation the rig is on its way and permits are in and a commitment by The wood group could potentially see the sp many factorials higher but its down to the money now and how much is committed to enegi s projects
News due next week on the Fynn project submission to the DECC, also a possible update on the Wood Group tie in. Also any time now news from BSE s plan to drill and submission to the Canadian DNR to approve the drill campaign, already recently deposited $250K deposit so things must be moving. There will be a lot of regulatory hoops to go through along with environmental, but the area already has a production license so should just be a case of getting through the necessaries. News due on many fronts now within a few weeks. Also updates on Helvick and Dunmore field, and an over due update on the Jordan.. Entry at anything under 10p here looks a steal with quite a few drivers looking likely. Next week looks like it will be the start, with the AGM looming they will be looking at putting some important news out to satisfy shareholders after so long in the doldrums and there plan to get the sp out of this bear trap.