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Deal dependent but if 25% /75% bpc/ major ———35p!

Possibility:

Simon is now seen to have done his BPC job (bring in a deal) and this is now the first step of his new contract under the new deal.
Also if/when the share price booms any future options etc will be bad PR for the new deal as it would look excessive.
GLA.

I agree SS + BG want major involved all the way as indemnity insurance.

Ok lot being said about 87p party:

Long term holders (who hopefully do not by now have alchzema) will remember that approx 8-9 years ago the sp and prospects were looking amazing.
Alan Burns who was reckoned to be one of the top if not the top oil finder in the world said “drill here” - it is massive.
Shares in issue were about a third - half less of those now, however many recent increased share issues are on the back of recent activity - 18 months -300 mill ish - quarter + ...not checked figs don’t be pedantic folks this is a serious investing board not a place to score points please.
When the 87 p party was first promulgated the share was looking good and achieved 20p+.
Macondo “do your worst” and it did - it killed all interest from any govt anywhere in the world inc Bahamas.
Alan’s original estimates were on 2D seismic which frankly are dead in the water tech wise - pun intended.
BUT still he said “world class”
Today’s 3D seismic is SOTA - and if you can’t fig that out I give up.
I don’t think that many folks realize that this is either a dead duck - if the tech is wrong - however if it is right this is the equivalent of the California gold rush for small prospectors.
GLA.

Come on guys we’ve all been playing nicely lately - let’s keep it that eh?

Kap I say this lightheartedly but worth bearing in mind particularly if 1st drill is high end of estimates (Moyes) :

Top estimate is 28bn boo for the 5 wells so factor of 17.5 x your calls.
Also most serious oil analysts believe that oil goes one way I.e. up. With some predicting $200 p.b in 5 years.
GLA.

BB if I cud ask the BOD a ? There is not one that they cud reply to without going to jail.
I am so convinced of this coming good I do not mind how long it takes.
To put this into some sort of perspective, the vast majority of share holders here are long term.
They are battered, bruised and battle weary.
However the game is finally afoot and I believe we will succeed.

What a surprise a decent buy - 10,000 quid buy appears after the bell.
I tell ya this aim game has got to be regulated better it is a joke!

Always the cynic Laalee but hey ho each to his own.
GL.

Kap - Keith is right there are so many unknowns here that we are left guessing and wisdom is almost impossible to apply.
However reiteration of historic precedent can be useful in analyzing potential value.

I believe the $100 mill to date costs will be paid as a bullet payment on signing. - a sign of good intent.
I believe the deal will primarily be for first drill with Major paying the bill.
I believe future drills on the following 4 sites will be JV/equal costs and I have no idea how that will be negotiated but 50/50 possible.
The above is all said with humility + deal making experience + old age -which might = a monoculture of wisdom or senility!
Anybody’s guess and I guess that’s where we are at.
Keep up the good work Kap it all adds to the fun of investing.
GLA.

From my dd I have summissed that 20/30% is the usual junior partner share of net profitability.
> deal costs I.e. approx $100 million (in this case) are refundable by “major.”

‘Appen ya right lad!

If this comes in we should do a discount deal for 2 mate!

28th August 2018 (day after uk bank holiday) @07.00hrs.
25% BPC ........12.5%-25% tax Bahamas...........Rest for major.
Effectively BPC and BG have = influence with Major in the event of top end estimates.

By the way Davie I’ve been in since 2010 so empathize with the impatience - I want a new car!!
X

Davie you are right in the context of a new deal from scratch.
However as I mentioned I believe that90% is agreed (and has been for some time).
The rig issue I believe is already sorted and awaiting implementation.
If I was in the mix of the deal I would have built the rig issue into things along time ago when rates were low.
However as I said the major will have its own gear that can be called on whenever.
Yes you may think I am wearing rose colored specs but I do believe the deal has been a long time in the making.
Just look how long the board have been taking deferred salaries/shares.
Good luck mate - hopefully we are nearly there. - and yes I know we ain’t @ 8p yet!!!

Several of the management are ex BP including CEO & Chairman.
This is one of the reasons I favour Shell as they needed to ring fence the game from correlated parties with the exclusivity deal.

Kap - if I may call you that please- you are right to push the boundaries of accepted trading standards.
Hard work and due diligence will win in the end.
I believe that the SP is being depressed by “someone” to prevent an explosion.
Politics may be at work here pre a float on BISX as JC and I mentioned the other day.
Also the depression is possibly in order to stop institutional investors coming on board which would create the “explosion”/breakout.
IMO
This deal is already 90% done and the 3 parties -Major/BPC/BG are just waiting for the right timing.
They actually have plenty of time as 3months takes us past hurricane season, so no rush needed.
If it’s Shell or one of the super majors they may already have one of their own rigs earmarked.
Good luck my friend and nice to have you contributing - A true pro!

Kapkira you are obviously a very intelligent guy and I mean that.
However we have no facts only speculation and guesses at the mom.
My thoughts are dead simple - 20p on ANY deal + pound + on first successful spud
Remember the rule of thumb in my investing experience is NEVER go with the crowd.
Good luck mon ami.
I think this will be a Good one but I am one of a crowd!

JC I’ve been thinking the same thing for some time.
How do you get everyone on board. -give em a chance to share in the action.
The conspiracy theorist in me also says the SP is being held down to that end.
Prob BS but that’s politics!