Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Cybertron

Look back at 19th August around 4/5pm and you'll see plenty of posts discussing CNG concept valuation metrics. Might alleviate confusion.

Carbon Capture pilots currently doing well Sefton the Ph.1 clusters all seem to be generating good interest.

Obvs a deal is contingent on successful flow testing

Ibiza

Don't think the gas has moved since last Sept and think we are targeting the same zones- indeed I think the RNS may even have stated the plan was as indicated although as they went they would flex where needed. They have had the info available to do last year what they are doing now.

Anyway, we should be inching closer to results now and next 2-3 weeks should yield info unless they hold it back trying to strike some sort of deal if terms not already agreed.

Hi Androcles

Hope that's the only impenetrable thing regarding PRD in the near future!!

Was just a counterpoint to Keith's view of those of us who have pushed for testing flow for a long time. Char haven't successfully flowed and remain in the SP doldrums as do we. In essence it seemed a critique of the call for flow testing yet reading the RNS it is a pre-requisite for MOU-3 to be declared commercial and early monetisation to occur.

Had this happened last Sept and some of the potential been converted to reality through a sale of MOU-3 flows think most people would have been pleased with the outcome.

Personally wish Chariot and their SH's well but don't hold, I'm keen to see successful results here.

Keith

Certainly an interesting comparison and interesting reading as ever.

While you mention CHAR not flow testing as a critique of those who have called for PRD to complete it as they've stated many times they will. If CHAR had successfully done so to the level PRD target they would be on a different strata for the SP as we would.

Would I have been happier for the SP to convert potential into reality sooner, of course only a masochist would not be!!!

There is a reason they have been dragged in to doing it despite their insistence it is not required.

Hey Marvin,

Always hard to predict a price as Mr Market isn't easily led.

For the 40m barrels proven I'd say $8 and for the 330m barrels likely from drilling I'd say $4 so I reckon between $1.0-1.5bn but you may only get £1.50 per share (despite the above being more like £2.75 per share).

For me, if no partner Eco should use $40m to drill Guyana.

Yes

Jimmy

Think ops commenced 6th August but the coiled tube insertion and some other works needed to complete before we actually began testing. Think we are around the window though that if there was no gas present ops would be largely complete on MOU-3- which of course is not the only game in town.

Additionally that current MCAP needs only 1-3mcfd to support it and this amount is deemed commercial all bode well.

I asked the other day, what chance MOU-5 is drilled when Sound complete their work before SDX commence theirs as it is probably a short (initial) drill.

Keith

Based on your post earlier in the week, we are 16 days on from initial testing RNS and with clean up mentioned probably 12/13 days in to testing.

By this point or withinn2-3 dats my guess is they'd know if all perforated zones were either inaccessible or not flowing, hence no news beyond the early part of the coming week is likely a good sign.

Interesting on Mou-5 now just for timing

Teardrop

His posts have been instructive and helpful for sure.

TheBold

Being inside does not preclude one from comment but one cannot impart MNPI.

Also, you am be taken and then removed and taken back in for inside periods depending on level of involvement, while others are considered to be permanently inside but have windows in which they can trade as activity isn't deemed material such as between quarterly/periodically financials.

Otherwise management could never.make comment.

Soder

Given your post many might wonder why you are invested.

Regardless of other licences Eco has a confirmed carry on drilling in 3B/4B and has 5.5% of a licence that could be 6-8bn barrels.

The first drill should target 35-50m barrels net to Eco. So let's say it may be 40m barrels proven and 300m barrels likely if the drill is successful I'd guess in March/April so around 6 months away.

I'm willing to wait that out and will be adding between now and then

He has left his wording vague enough to make it sound almost like he is privy to info we are not but imagine the BiD are aiming to keep things pretty tight as it stands. So would expect little news for a couple of weeks or more yet.

Interesting and illuminating post KeithOz - useful to hear about the process and the finer detail of what it entails.

The entry 3 times to test long term flow predictability I'd imagine is prescribed in any deal doc what is needed for commerciality.

Porters

At the pace the BoD moves it may be another 10 weeks. I don't buy into singing Que Serah Serah as prefer timelines even if proximate.

I'll also never understand those who are happy to wait 6-12 months linger than necessary for value to crystallise but we are/should be on the cusp now of knowing if it will so won't quibble over a week or two.

Or there is very little appetite to sell and therefore not much or a market to be made.

Haven't tried sitting on the bid to confirm theory mind.

Ibiza

With an off takers and agreed method of delivery at the wellhead, debt financing such infrastructure is much cheaper anr more realistic than equity.

The BoD have stated they have sought discussions with a PE investor in oil & gas who would be interested in taking some or all of the project for CNG delivery and agree terms for what demonstrates commerciality from MOU-3 flow testing.

Hence, if successful in these endeavours the flow test could trigger the sale based on the narrative in.previous RNS releases.

there are 3 zones in mou-3

two mentioned in june are

middle sequence - 10-20mcf per day from jan itr

lower sequence may allow cng to scale up to 50mcf a day (so i'd read this as likely 30mcf stand alone given middle sequence).

3rd sequence isn't stated.

50mcf a day at $12scf is worth a rerate plenty of people have demonstrated the maths on an npv10 for 10yrs back of *** in excel is $1.3bn.

now if it flows the prize is potentially much bigger and while pe may offer only 30-40% of npv that is still 70c a share without even considering the further potential upside the licence may represent if the gas flows.

so bold i think you're contention of no rerate is bs

Porters

The 6th June RNS states thus:

The early stages of the Sandjet rigless testing programme have commenced with the arrival of some well services equipment at the MOU-3 well site and the preparation of the well for re-entry and perforating.

Extensive operations at MOU-3 are anticipated to last for at least five weeks before moving to the next well in the Sandjet testing programme.

We don't know if the extensive operations of 5 weeks plus included waiting for the arrival and clearance of kit through customs which management knew was needed to progress at that time although we did not.

So the 5 weeks listed in June may have included prep and wait time and some well cleaning may have been done prior to 7th/8th Aug RNS and with 3 zones being tested I think 3-4 weeks is enough time for MOU-3.