Member Info for InJamesweTrust

Ibiza

In terms of first call, it is fair to assume we would serve the Moroccan market first if we have gas. We are on their turf and it is important partnerships work for all.

If there is enough gas the we would be doing Gad to Power as well as CNG and that may be used domestically or further afield.

Pricing wise if we have enough gas to supply the Moroccan industrial market and have a bit left over the SP would be a different beast to that we see today and the differences of gas going elsewhere be marginal enough to make little discernible difference to your investment return - ie you'd be pretty happy either way.

On testing imagine it started we don't know the date of Lonnys pic so the 7th Aug RNS saying rigless testing has commenced seems like start date.

They did use language before to say rigless testings ops had commenced not rigless testing. So I think week 6 on Thu and probably challenging to release interim without some comment.

For UK tax law.which may have been tightened, when an Infrastructure project was in construction it utilised a specific tax treatment to recognise the heavy CapEx producing significant tax losses. It would then flip to an operating model treatment.

Often partners would purchase the tax losses from the SPV to set against their own future profits. They didn't need to even be majority holders just have a share interest.

Keith

The Libya camps comment reminds me of Tom Clancy's Patriot Games - a book I recently had the pleasure of re-reading with my 12yo son as we work through his catalogue. Now on Sum of All Fears. Great for initiating geo politics discussions that aren't too dusty

Not in unison ins sequence - don't want a Deepwater Horizon before even starting out!

Keith

Wonder if the blackout from the satellite may have been to allow flaring of some zones.

If SJ has been successful in perforating and gas has flowed could the zones be opened more easily to flare in unison and does this demonstrate anything useful from a gas property perspective.

My feeling is probably not but flaring may have been a reason for the blackout.

With the signing of the 3B/4B deal when funds clear I think TOTAL become operator. At this point they will be keen to get drill dates lined up so would expect confirmation within 6 weeks of them becoming operator.

For Guyana - the tax losses Eco hold on Orinduik fully offset the value Eco seek to be carried on a drill or two. Agreeing monetisation for Hammerhead could see Eco carried on 2/3 drills for Orinduik in addition to the tax losses so I'd imagine this is the current basis for negs. I wouldn't be surprised if John Hess was interested subject to non-compete.

Bold

I'd check your maths if I was you.

It may add 20p but expectation can be a cruel mistress.

The market is not entirely predictable but I would say 10mmcf/d is still a net positive with many areas remaining to test.

People have answered ad-nauseum so here goes, current SP needs c 3mmcf/d to support so 10mmcf/d theoretically supports 3x current SP without considering what it means for the wider licence.

Kas

Post wasn't having a pop, I've done that enough. We are now in the period of awaiting results and that should be fairly soon.

People are want to say it won't reach this or that on success. However if they can flow 50-100mmcf/d then a rerate of multiples is not unreasonable to expect in the SP.

While many say it's unrealistic, I don't see a reasoned take down to the figures posited to support such pricing possibilities.

For the AG MOU we don't know what's in there but I'd be surprised if there is not an element of upfront payment for proving commerciality but we can't say for sure. The BoD will be aware of their desired next steps and have alluded to sales to monetise. If the tests show what is required for commercial parameters laid down in either the MOU or any other agreements then there is a likelihood of a payment to facilitate further exploration (the BoD possibly having a specific sequence/timeline in mind).

Kas

There is alot of nonsense but there is also just the interminable wait which is inevitable in O&G as testing takes time. That they are still going should bode well, think there is only so many times one would try to sandjet the same damage in the hope of different results.

We have ideas of the potential value, I'd like to know results when testing is complete but alas we don't know when that is or if the company will wait to discuss with other parties/consider options. That is at the company's discretion.

Don't see the benefit of talking down other companies, doing well here should be the focus and enough of a result for anyone if we get the flow rates we think are possible.

CHAR I'm not really bothered about as the global market shows if you can produce the gas there is generally demand for it.

If we get to the point where Moroxoo changes the global price curves (doubtful) then I'm sure that's one of those nice to have problems rather than a cause for concern!

Nigel

You're almost sounding bullish!

Think where testing is located, the crew will be on for the full job and shift changes and this reduced the risk of leaks.

Might be one of the benefits of the E&P being only 3 people as less propensity for loose lips and all are well incentivised so it is easier to keep quiet.

Bold

Multiple runs would not take 40 hours per targeted zone which is the time elapsed through today based on 17 zones.

Not interested in a flare from the satellite pass but would be interested if there was confirmation that the kit is all in situ still at MOU-3.

As we enter the 5th week of testing, if we had not found gas to test I firmly believe kit would gave been moved to MOU-4 by now. Absence of gas would not need to be tested, shut in, tested, shut in and tested again.

Hence the 17 targeted zones would have completed around 2 weeks ago I'd suggest and the kit and crew moved accordingly.

Some of the posters think sending messages saying it could be 18 months to monetise CNG like it is a bad thing.

Confirmed flow rates and an agreement to monetise the CNG will result in a defined value. If that has to be discounted by an extra 1.5 years it is still a specific value that is attached to a company asset.

In terms of first whiff of gas it would be more than a whiff but your linguistic choice makes clear how you wish to characterise things.

I'm pretty sure the BoD can maintain some commercial confidentiality if they deem it appropriate such as payment terms.

Yes if results are due in the next couple of weeks (Week 5 and 6) then there is a reasonable window to secure a rig if they do not wish to use Star Valley.

The requirements for what constitutes commercial flows I'm sure will already be prescribed any any associated documentation if there is a clause requiring an option fee or other such to be paid by AG.

Depends on the cost of SJ and the cost of the rig of course, I think it is probably tight but if rig isn't booked costs erode cash.

The purpose of post was more to say that barring unexpected disaster a raise isn't necessary as cash can be generated elsewhere.

Should the flow testing prove commercial volumes of gas are present, it is entirely sensible to think AG will pay an exclusivity fee for off take allowing PRD to drill MOU-5 without any raise.

On comms, if imagine there aren't too many 5G masts around the site and Internet comms and calls are closely monitored with software so leakage is minimal/zero.

Leakage either way on news would have seen SP move in one direction or another.

The success case waw discussed in detail and I think I pointed to it earlier this week, from memory it was 19th August and a sensible discussion around NPV10 models.

Absence of news should in itself be positive as the company reported the failure of Perforation Gun testing reasonably quickly.

If the kit is still on site it is a good sign as BoD would surely hand back CTU and other in demand kit if no further need and have stood down staff.

The failure case for me is 2-4p as I'm not sure funds are fully available for MOU-5 but thinknthey would perhaps flow test MOU-4 before hand to derisk MOU-5 drill and perhaps then raise privately and announce a done deal.

There hasn't been any forward selling evident and so there is little sign of a raise and believe testing is proceeding and gas has been found to ve flowed. As only 3mmcf/d is needed to maintain SP, the shallow sands alone could likely suffice.

Towards the end of next week, the week after I'd expect some news.