Member Info for Indy0105

DD, why don’t you start balancing your post you Moron! Fernan raised a valid point. As soon as anyone posts anything slightly negative you accuse them of being a shorter. Instead of mouthing off, why don’t you actually tell us why Alma Galia production is so crap! At least some posters provide some information to back their opinions! You just spout crap.

DD, I actually wrote that I invested here because I believe we are in for a period of sustained higher oil prices. The value and performance of highly indebted Oilies are determined predominantly by oil price. Yes production does help but oil in the 50s and 60s will not do much for this share as we have witnessed from recent performance. So yes of course I’m holding because of oil price! Who would stay invested if they thought oil price was going to fall back over the long term. MO is an glass half full type of guy, I’m not. Oil in my opinion is artificialy high. A build today had surprisingly no impact. But no or light sanctions on Iran and another build next week could hit the price especially with the record number of longs. So I think it’s worth being on the cautious side. However I could be wrong. So to cover my bets I’m still in but not all in. This shouldn’t mater for long term as I think oil is will average 70 this year and 80 next. But I hope to accumulate as many shares as I can by buying on the dips. As for Alma, I hope MO is right. And by the way it doesn’t take a genius to see that PMO has increased by nearly 50% from its lows even with dilution from convertibles! Volume is well up and shorts are down. This generally signals more interest and confidence from MMs, but what to I know. I’ll try and refrain from posting in the future. Good luck all

No point venting on this BB Squif, your only be shot down for being negative! As you pointed out there are a lot of assets that hold very little value. Alma is the equivalent of PMOs Solan field. Expect a big write down this year for this asset. Crathes is an expensive fix and there is nothing more that can be done to prevent natural declines at other assets. Oilies like PMO have got all their bad news out the way and are on the up. Market still thinks AB is hiding issues. Everyone is banging on about paying down debt but forget about decommissioning liabilities for assets that produce 1k or less a day. Enquest need prolonged period of high oil prices. That’s what I’m banking on and that’s why I’m invested. But I am beginning to wander if I picked the right horse. Patient is key but if I had been waiting for years like some I would have missed out on some serious Benjamin’s! I sold 50% of my holding yesterday and put it in Kaz. Sold out of that today and will wait to get back in at some point. Most Oilies are overbought and should head south I’ll be sprites if this doesn’t follow.

What’s going on at Heather? I thought the new well was online and producing? Why has production dropped?

The fact that it’s down again today more than most of its peers shows that the market is expecting further bad news. They don’t believe anything that comes out of ABs mouth. Some on this BB blow smoke up his backside for his great performance yet oil is near $75 and this is languishing in the mid 30s. Worst performing company in the sector says it all. Although I’m 20k up I’m annoyed at myself for not selling up at 38 like it did at 42 earlier in the year and move into PMO and HUR. Both are now overbought so hopefully this dog can catch up.

I’m beggining to regret picking this share ahead of PMO and HUR. I’m not sure how you LTHs have held for so long.

What are you on about! When was the last time there was an update that didn’t disappoint? The share price improvement is due to oil price not the performance of the CEO. As I’ve said before his credibility is at an all time low for failure to deliver is own targets. I own these shares because I believe oil price will continue to rise not because I believe in the CEO.

Fat cats paying themselves with obscene amount of performance related shares. No wander this has been hammered down today!

Anyone else wandering if theres something up with AK? Should of had an offload by now.

What’s interesting about AK sign off is that full capacity is not defined by 50k stabilisation but on the capacity of the wells and what they can produce. We know the wells are performing better than expected so don’t presume that just because sign off has not been confirmed, AK is not producing at 50k a day. I believe by Q3 we will be seeing production rates close to 55k maybe higher. They are also looking exploit the same reserve base from 2 less wells at DC4. The other 2 slots are potentially going to be used to exploit the western flank. the FPSO is designed for 80k a day capacity so this shouldn’t be an issue.

Tiny sells don’t bother me, nor does the SP position at this moment. I’m more interested in what going on behind the scenes. This is a good opportunity to hedge as much production as they can to protect themselves from oil price volatility. AK finally looks like it’s close to being signed off and production is only going to improve. Investing is about patience. If you want a quick buck then change your strategy. I waited for 18 months for KAZ to make its move and it was well worth the wait!

We are not being shorted! Total short positions as of the end of last month were 4.63%. That’s only 0.3% up from the previous month. Compare that to PMO who had shorts of 10.87% up 2.3% from previous month. Momentum will start picking up once q1 production figures have been released.

I think production by the end of the year will be close to 80k all being well and if they decide to hold on to AK stake. Include the rest of Magnus and we could be nearing 100k early next year! At current oil prices that’s a lot of Benjamin’s! I’ve got a load if these at an average of just over 31 and I think that’s cheap! I will be topping up over the next few weeks. I’m hoping to pick a few more up in the low 30s if I’m lucky, but I have a feeling I may miss out as this baby is about to pop!

Including lease cost OPEC is around $29/b @ 60k a day

Hard to explain why this got hammered today. Looks like this is heading back to 24p. I’ll be topping up next week via ISA. It’s annoying it’s been taken so low but then again I get a chance to buy more. I was reluctant to get back in a few weeks ago after reading the final year results, but production figures in Jan are surprisingly good.

Can’t resist at these prices. January’s production figures look good with plenty of upside in the coming months! A lot of production hedged at a floor price of $62 which should cover any further downside in the oil price. No issue making debt payment in Q3, debt interest, Capex on AK and other assets and the 100mil payment to BP for the rest of Magnus this year, as long as they can maintain 60k a day production. Its fill your boots time!