RE: No surprise29 Nov 2024 21:11
CM, Hi.
Couple of failed attempts to reply. Good to hear from you and hope all is well.
When you talk about Portugal’s battery industry I would be inclined to broaden it out to European. It’s only a few years when we were hearing of new gigafactories being developed and we were questioning as to where the raw materials supply were to come from, and the processing. The European options are so limited, if they are to have any industry to speak of, Portugal will have to feature.
This was a reply from HK Lithiumionbulll to a message about Galp’s withdrawal. I found it quite interesting.
“EU is ahead of USA a bit with AMG and Keliber and hopefully both of them will succeed and grow. Unlike peer oil companies Exxon/Equinor etc GALP chose conventional hydroxide process from spodumene rather than speculate on DLE oil brine - a not unreasonable strategy. But the "merchant converter" model they pursued is very hard. If you own your own rock you may no longer be God, but if you don't own or lock in supply to any rock you don't have a business. Watching their JV partner Northvolt go bankrupt and watching lithium price volatility result in the opposite of "software margins/money printing" to quote Elon, it is understandable why GALP ended this project.”
Europe seems to want all hoops completed before licence rather than licence subject to hoops being completed. As he says Galp lacked the underpin of resource as a merchant converter. Not many options in Europe and AMD managed to get their feet under the table with their tie up with Sav, in Galp’s backyard.
Sav are now dry much in the latter stages of the hoops and the link will hopefully help both companies thrive. One might have thought that with the demise of the NV/Galp venture that had been notionally allocated almost 1bn from the recovery fund, that financing for both mining and processing on AMDs modular system to increase production will be available, especially if Strategic Project status is awarded from the EC in December. Something to look out for, even in this dire market. Meanwhile there are other planned battery makers in Portugal, Iberian peninsula and Morocco
This has had the gestation of a prehistoric elephant if not a brontosaurus so can well understand looking at other options in what have been severe headwinds. It’s getting closer, and I can’t see viable or better alternatives in Europe. Could do with Portuguese Gov and EC commitment