Member Info for in4cedros

Briggsy - I hope you were able to source the incontinence pants in time, perhaps you got in a supply when you lost heavily on the failed Bahamas drill - that certainly brought on Niagra Falls levels of whinging , whining and gnashing of teeth from you!

Difficult to judge how the SP will settle down on this news, as usual scaremongers believe they can influence matters! The indication of drilling in 2026 focuses eyes on rapid field development which has funding cost implications as well as huge potential product from a field with results.

I’d be interested to hear what Eytan has to say about it as he was well aware of the possibilities of farming out part interest to achieve free cover on drilling ( GALP are getting 50% cover from Total as part of the deal).

Briggsy - great to hear from you again!

I’m impressed with your path to recovery, you resisted the temptation to suggest that Galp wouldn’t get a deal and you’re implicitly talking up intrinsic value of CEG assets by your comment shareholders are “ being done over in this merger “!

I’m going to have to study the Galp deal in more detail but I can say that more diversification is a stand out which, from a textbook viewpoint, normally suggests a lessening of risk.

Briggsy believe it or not there are some investors who don’t like risking 100% on a wildcat drill - I think latterly you’ve been able to empathise with such people since you crystallised your loss on the Bahamas drill!

Picst - many thanks for the information - very comforting - that’s a “ Sirius “ wad LOL!

Marc - you could be right, always room for well argued views!

Incidentally at the 26/11/25 CEG shareholder meeting those voting against amassed total votes of less than 1% of shareholders voting so it doesn’t suggest a mass exodus of the disgruntled is likely but we’ll see!

Replies Restricted to Responsible Rampers only LOL!

Rascal - I’m posting below a paragraph from 2025 half yearly report. Just selling remaining holding in VALT would release significant percentage of Woodsmith future development costs but balls are currently up in the air and have to be juggled carefully to optimise results.

"We have made further good progress towards our simplified portfolio. In May, we completed the demerger of the majority of our interest in Valterra Platinum to our shareholders and we expect to monetise our residual 19.9% interest - currently valued at $2.6 billion - responsibly over time. We are also continuing to progress the agreed steelmaking coal and nickel business sale transactions. We expect a material strengthening of our balance sheet flexibility upon receipt of proceeds from these transactions. The work to separate De Beers is well under way, with action taken to strengthen cash flow as we position De Beers for long-term success and value realisation. “

Rascal - you’re closer to the potash face than me but I sense they are slowing it down, in this phase, rather than mothballing.

I agree the financial potential of Woodsmith project is superb, I’m thinking goose laying golden eggs for most investors lifetimes! But like the fable there are dangers for impatience, which must be guarded against.

To power ahead they need cash - if it’s not from earnings within AAL they need to borrow or ask shareholders. The latter would give a would be takeover bidder a good opportunity to step in who may mothball project. Borrowing that much may be problematic- you’d have to run it past the analysts- I’m suspecting terms might not be as keen as normal AAL borrowing.

Borrowing past certain levels sometimes attracts negative market attention, particularly if there happened to be a downturn in the commodities AAL produce. Market agitators can bang away at the company in conjunction with shorting to undermine SP.

Commentators on this board are relatively few given the company size and I feel we are only scratching the surface compared to the knowledge depth of the analysts and more importantly the stewards at AAL. I believe there is plenty of agonising going on behind scenes but they seem to run a pretty tight ship so we don’t get to hear about it, which is commendable, but a tad frustrating for those on the sidelines who believe in the winning formula but are having to witness some low scoring draws in the meantime!

Not sure what’s driving the recent SP surge but any positive news on Woodsmith would certainly warrant a significant uptick!

SaintBaklava - apologies the analyst visit was 03/10/2023! Well worth reading.

Santina - most investors ask themselves the same question on a daily basis, particularly with AIM high risk oil exploration plays!

You could take the advice of Briggsy who’s just returned to the board after a period of wound licking!

He says “ This share is a dog - many would be wise to cut their losses or for a very very luck few, sell their small gains “. Unfortunately Briggsy doesn’t have a good track record here - seemingly over exposed himself to the Bahamas drill and blinded himself to potential of Uruguay with that iconic statement just before the transformational Chevron announcement:-

“Why on earth would anyone want to give their money to a company with no credibility and run by amateurs and most importantly who on earth would want to partner with them. “

Never gets old that one!

Santina - the upside here is huge but the potential reward comes with high risk - arguably the merged company diversifies the risks but it doesn’t remove them. This will be an exciting ride, whether you’re 18 or 80!

Good luck with your decision!

SaintBaklava - you mention your “ suspicion “ there’s very little left to pay back the CapEx and create long - term value.

I understand your use of that term as there is room for many viewpoints on a project of this type with many unknowns. AAL is a big company and the share is covered by serious analysts who were invited to the mine in October 2024. Interested readers can access the detailed Q&A which took place which gave a good insight into the mining, marketing and financials for the project.

The numbers are huge, both for investment and return - potential investors have to make their own mind up about ROCE and the likelihood they can find a partner with deep pockets. Casting my eye over more than a few broker reports I’m not seeing any that are saying AAL are being unrealistic in thinking a partner will be interested but until something happens it’s obviously fair game for observers to be sanguine.

AAL can’t ignore the market and the recent takeover bid - I believe they want to finish the Woodsmith project but they can’t be cavalier with financing so have adopted current policy. I don’t believe there’s any organised agitation for a change of policy and they have been successful with implementation of other aspects of the plan.

Sinking cash into a long term project often creates an element of vulnerability if it’s being funded from profits, they’ve done well to get this far without significant grief for shareholders.

I’m inclined to think most shareholders are happy with stewardship here and accept the risk/reward scenario - potential investors should DYOR and act accordingly.

I do applaud this company for its willingness to successfully undertake large CapEx projects.

Eldwick - you raise an interesting point. Looking at the dates mentioned in RNS it appears to me CEG have tried to make the transition seamless but they can’t promise what they can’t control.

Almost certainly CEG/Sintana have discussed the dual listing with AIM and have been encouraged to believe it’s likely to be agreed but clearly unless it’s set in concrete they can’t say that in RNS, hence the choice of wording.

It’s new business for AIM, which means fees for them, so little chance of it being declined as the compliance requirements are known.

Your CEG shares will be suspended if the matter proceeds as per timeline so there are practical difficulties in your ISA provider selling and hopefully by the time they get around to dealing with the foreign market shares issue the AIM trading will be approved and they won’t have to!

Quite frankly I’d be surprised if your broker wouldn’t wait for the AIM listing given the circumstances - have you asked them ?

I’ll keep my fingers crossed for your smooth transition as I can understand why you wouldn’t want to be forced out of the market at this particularly exciting time for the share!

Hurrah!

Anybody think it’s gone to a recount?

Santina - respect for grabbing that moniker - remarkably prescient for a CEG shareholder!

Have a read of RNS dated 03/11/2025 - subject is mentioned.

SamManbi

Posted in: CEG

Posts: 235

RE: Major Shareholders27 Oct 2025 11:21

Since I originally posted this, some naughty people who missed the deadline of filing an RNS last week have filed theirs since.

In the post last week I estimated that the people listed owned between 55 to 60% of the company. With the additional RNSs published since then (including the big American one today), the figure has increased to the 70%.,meaning that Eytan has reached his target of 'sophisticated' shareholding.

SaintBaklava - “ A gamble of epic proportions “ you opine others might suggest it’s a calculated diversification strategy. Yes the price of product in the future is an unknown but the properties of the product are not and farmers will, almost certainly, be prepared to use it as an alternative to existing fertiliser, particularly if there is a cost benefit, not to mention the organic “ halo “!

AAL is well capitalised and has afforded the project expenditure to date without jeopardising financial stability. Latterly there have been takeover threats and BOD have effectively reacted in many ways, including opening the Woodsmith project to partnering.

There are probably some at AAL who believe sharing the project is not necessary but longer term projects of this type can potentially make the company subject to short term SP pressure and the company wish to avoid that, if possible.

Stewart - may I suggest you contact your broker and ask them when they will allow you to trade the converted Sintana shares, bearing in mind they know you’ll actually be getting them - it may allay your concerns.

My own view FWIW is a legal challenge requires time, effort and cash. Venting on a chat board is cathartic enough for most - if the issue is, hypothetically LOL, CEG shareholders are getting a better deal perhaps it’s time to get hands down the back of the sofa and use that cash to buy CEG before the suspension!

Court meeting and General meeting being held 24/11/2025, see RNS 03/11/2025.

All shareholders are encouraged to vote - many have already declared intentions, implications have been discussed, in-depth on here. particular thanks to Sam Mambi.

There was talk that dissenting Sintana shareholders might attempt some form of legal challenge but I’ve not heard much more on that. Perhaps Almost Mongolian can give us the latest.