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By NEIL HARTNELL
#Tribune Business Editor
#nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
#A BAHAMAS-based oil explorer has received "a great endorsement" from independent experts who confirmed its chances of success are at least four times' higher than the industry average.
#Simon Potter, Bahamas Petroleum Company's (BPC) chief executive, told Tribune Business that confirmation of the validity of its underwater seismic data "can only be positive" for its joint venture partner search.
#The exploration outfit, whose licence gives it until April 2018 to spud its first exploratory well in waters south-west of Andros, hired Moyes & Co, a petroleum industry consultancy, in August 2017 to assess its prospects of striking 'black gold' in Bahamian waters.The independent analysis, just unveiled by BPC, calculated the company's "probability of success" for each of the seabed oil sources it is targeting as between 25 per cent to 35 per cent.
#Mr Potter said this far exceeded the oil industry's typical 5-10 per cent average, with Moyes & Co verifying that the amount of oil economically recoverable from BPC's southern Bahamian licence fields ranges from a mean of 8.3 billion barrels to "an upside" of 28 billion barrels.
#The consultants' technical audit of BPC's seismic data, and the company's interpretations of such, also confirmed the oil explorer's belief that the project can be economically viable with a field of just 200 million barrels.
#"Moyes independently calculated the probability of success (PoS) factors for each of the major reservoirs assessed, the majority of which were calculated in the 25 to 35 per cent range," BPC said of the consultants' findings. "Though a few are risked at 12-15 per cent.
#"Applying a recovery factor in the range of 20 per cent to 40 per cent to the Moyes [economically recoverable] volumes would result in an unrisked Estimated Ultimate Recoverable (EUR) in the range of 1.6 billion to 3.3 billion barrels (mean), and up to 11 billion barrels (upside)."
#Mr Potter told Tribune Business: "We've always been very excited by the project, and it's very large and of a global scale, but to have independent and technical experts endorse our own numbers is great.
#"It's very reassuring for us, and a great endorsement of the technical work we've done and the work we've asked them to do on our behalf. The economic threshold for a commercial development is somewhere below 200 million barrels, when the oil industry is average is 500 million to one billion barrels.
#"The audit confirms we can be commercial and viable below 200 million barrels, and the technical experts have endorsed multiple thousands of millions of barrels, not just 200 million."
#Mr Potter acknowledged that "the numbers can be eye-watering at times", but also pointed to Moyes & Co's assessment of BPC's drilling success prospects as far higher than the global oil industry's average.
#"They also said the probability of success is between 25 per cent a
garrygraham - before i respond to your post in detail i’m interested to learn why you decided to continue holding shares in bpc during the drill stage bearing in mind the cos had been published by bpc and they clearly indicated there was a much greater chance of failure than success. ( i can probably dig out the detailed information if you can’t remember).
you must remember the drill being characterised pretty much as ' **** or bust ’ and that’s how it turned out, except that the company managed to cling on by the skin of its teeth!
GarryGraham - another example of Timid Trolling - I’m sure we would have heard from Chevron by now if the recent RNS was a pack of lies but sagacious advice not to bank on it until all i’s are dotted and t’s crossed!
I’m still amazed someone like you is purportedly interested in this type of high risk O&G Exploration Company when a Post Office account sounds rather better suited to your apparent risk appetite! ( no jokes about Post Office please - I’m seemingly talking to an old fossil here! ) .
Jilted - if you bothered to watch the Crux video, which states it’s a paid for product, by CEG, you’d note CEO emphasises the high risk involved in investing in O&G Exploration shares.
I’m genuinely ignorant about why you decided to buy shares in CEG in the first place having regard to the risks involved, which were mentioned by many on these boards, including me, at many stages of the company’s development.
You may find whinging on here cathartic and I do note you seem to have less of an appetite for it post the transformational Chevron announcement - let’s hope that, perversely, the good news continues it’s healing for you!
MadMax - heartless you say, about yourself - yes I agree and probably I could add cold, calculating and ruthless in your trading something like Goldfinger in the Bond movie - a formidable opponent for any trader of shares to lock horns with!
I am, however, a bit confused as to why you are spending time commenting on this particular share if you’re not attempting to influence whether readers buy or sell - after all you’ve told us you ' don’t pretend to care about other people who I don’t even know ’ !
Why elapse your time on here giving us your valuable opinion if there’s no benefit in it for you - at least Goldfinger was doing it for money power and influence!
I’m a very simple soul I just see CEG as a plc, owned by shareholders who pay BOD to run it. Shareholders have bought their shares of their own volition, presumably because they want the company to prosper so that their shares might rise in value - I can’t readily see anything wrong with that and I wish them good luck - why would anyone want them to fail unless that person had a financial interest in shares losing value!
There are people who do take these negative financial positions and then seek to infiltrate shareholders to sell out to being about a weaker SP - I call such people Trolls ( they can be lovable but most are inclined to be nasty! ).
I do make a distinction between Trolls and disgruntled current/ former shareholders- the latter are inclined to blame the company for their losses and find it cathartic to whinge and whine on here, Jilted being a prime example but I sense even he is getting close to the end of his mourning period for his losses and is losing some enthusiasm lately in the wake of the stellar Chevron deal!
As for yourself, to your credit, I accept you are careful not to tell people to buy or sell and I find that refreshing as I spend lots of time responding to 12bn on the other channel!
Interestking - informative post !
Madmax - Willec has plenty to excite himself about - what’s wrong with him being enthusiastic about his investment- plenty of posters here gagging to be negative.
I’m happy to wish shareholders good luck with their investment - it’s not a guarantee of success merely a showing of support- all shareholders here know they’re taking a high risk with this stock - if they don’t know that they should take professional advice. Are you prepared to join me in wishing them good luck?
Willec - GarryGraham is an interesting case study on the Trolling spectrum - as the heading suggests he is a Timid Troll - instead of slating the company he pops up from time to time, makes some neutral/ positive comments, whinges a bit then slips in the negative comment.
I remember the pattern from the lead up to the Bahamas drill - found it difficult to believe he’d actually invested having regard to his state of anguish he’d been in then, when it failed, the buyers remorse kicked in big time!
If his posts are genuine it’s difficult to understand why someone with that attitude is prepared to go another 10 rounds with the company on a new drill venture whilst pooping their pants at each stage.
Furthermore in such a scenario why highlight negatives if you are genuinely invested - by way of example I give you fairly recent post where instead of just saying the Chevron deal is not complete until everything is agreed, including Government approval he decided to speculate that Chevron had included last minute caveats in the deal. He may be correct but why introduce that little bit of extra speculation based on zero knowledge - I could easily speculate that Chevron have done so many deals historically they have a rigorous tick box list to complete and want to see all the evidence before they even release the news they’ve done a deal because pulling out at the last moment suggests they didn’t do proper due diligence in the first place which is not great for a Super Major!
I wish all shareholders success in this venture - there’s plenty of proper trolls about - they don’t need your help!
MadMax - I make no apologies for giving Eytan and BOD credit for having insight to acquire Uruguay license and achieving a superb deal with Chevron for the development opportunity. Serendipity played its part but CEO made his own luck.
I tried to present an enormous bouquet of flowers and a huge bunch of chocolates to him at the last seminar but Security wouldn’t let me in - what sort of cult does that LOL!
This is a chat board and I sometimes challenge other views on here particularly when they appear to lack substance as was the case with Jebgooner !
Jebgooner - you’re the one who seems touchy - I replied to your post on the basis you were genuinely ignorant about the history of CEG managing to achieve pole position on the grid.
I then painted a picture of how the possibility of obtaining the Uruguay licence was seen at the time by the trolls/disgruntled and by those who are optimistic for success. I include myself in the latter camp - I can only speak for myself but, at the time, I didn’t see Uruguay reaping $12.5 million, let alone all the potential.
You tell me you’re not in the troll/ disgruntled camp and I’m pleased to hear it although I’m happy to chat to that group cos it’s a chat board and I’m cathartic for them!
I’ve explained the rather fortuitous circumstances of the licences but acknowledged the great work done by CEO - the facts are all in the public domain - I’ve not seen any other poster suggest it was other than serendipity- if you think believe otherwise that’s clearly your prerogative but I’d suggest if you want to convince others you should demonstrate that you’re familiar with how the story evolved and then explain why the company narrative is not what it seems, if that’s what you’re getting at!
Jebgooner - regular readers here are well aware of how CEG were awarded the licences - the disgruntled/ troll cohort predictably pretty much insisted that if CEG were awarded it the value must be close to zilch but Eytan proved them wrong and pleasantly surprised many of his supporters.
The CEO admits he has been a little fortunate with timings of COVID pandemic and the announcement of the Conjugate Orange Basin but he should be heartily congratulated for making his own luck!
If you need to know more about the history after DYOR ask away - there’s no mystery here - info is all in public domain.
Jilted - take time out from wallowing in your own disgruntlement to watch the 2 videos recently flagged up by GMSunshine and Sam - they’ve even included the links for you.
BTW CEO has mentioned they plan to reopen wells on the new licence area in Trinidad but no one is suggesting it’s going to be transformational - just a bit of low cost tweaking to see how it goes - nothing like Uruguay- just calm yourself down!
Druid - I can’t recommend strongly enough the 2 videos which have recently had links posted by GMSunshine and my Monopoly playmate Sam!
Eytan appeared pretty optimistic that the regulatory approval would be granted in the next 3 months, this fits his timeline for eking out remaining cash in the coffers but in the overall scheme of things the cost of arranging a bridging loan to be repaid from Chevron bonanza $12.5 million ( like they did recently on Cory Moruga ) appears a small price to pay to allay concerns of those that worry about such matters!
Regarding Chevron the closest I’ve got to intimate examination is an extremely close shave on a twisty country road some years ago but the company is described as a Super Major and I’m led to believe the Uruguay Government will treat them as a father of 6 girls, past their first flush of youth, would treat the ideal comfortably rich suitor. Seriously having a wealthy, very experienced company in charge is close to best case scenario for the Government.
I see little chance of Chevron pulling out at this stage - they are old hands and must have a pretty comprehensive list of boxes to tick before agreeing to the deal and permitting its revelation. But, of course, those wanting absolute certainty should be wary, although if they worry about that I’m not sure O & G Exploration is something they should be anywhere near!
Re the videos often I’ve marvelled at Malcy’s ability to attempt to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear without crossing that all important boundary of lying or misleading but this latest interview appeared less contrived, more relaxed and massively more informative.
Good luck to all shareholders here!
Will - perhaps the trolls on here heed the FCA warning before posting as I don’t often see the blatant lying and misleading which should come back on 12bn to bite him up the backside.
Jilted is just a disgruntled former shareholder who’s taken longer to get over it than most.
Obviously planted more than he was comfortable with on a high risk Oil Exploration & Production share - was his arm twisted, if so, by whom ?
Jilted - the SP is settling down after the recent excitement of the Chevron partnership announcement ( who was the doubting troll that said, about CEG, ' who on earth would want to partner with them ’ LOL! ) .
Eytan did cover this in recent Q&A and said something like he personally owned around 6% of the equity and wasn’t particularly concerned about any short term weakness in SP as the next 18/36 months will be the news filled development period.
If you’re bothered about short term weakness as a non shareholder I’m obviously very concerned for you as it suggests a huge void in your life - have a look at 12bn on the other channel and think whether you can match his decade of angst and more than 40,000 posts!
JohnBriggs
Posted in: CEG
Posts: 1,064
Price: 0.1075
No Opinion
RE: Deadlines23 Feb 2024 10:37
Hahahaha, ah Luthee you really are the ultimate apologist. You fail to recognise that if a CEO comes out with a deadline such as fam out by Christmas and then that changes to oh now another 12 weeks, by end of Q1 2024 it makes them look naive and incompetent when these deadlines aren't met. All the while tie company is running on fumes.
Why on earth would anyone want to give their money to a company with no credibility and run by amateurs and most importantly who on earth would want to partner with them. The industry and market never forgets those who mislead and default.
Jilted - ' who on earth would want to partner with them ’ - only little old Chevron Jilted!
SamManbi - if we were still playing Monopoly you’d certainly have earned your £200 passing go remuneration for posting that link!
Readers should note that Sam’s link is not associated with yesterday’s chat, where GMSunshine undoubtedly posted the link of the day - Sam’s link is to a Malcy interview with CEO which is hot off the press.
CEO certainly answers many questions about finance both short and longer term that I had been musing over and casts more light on the competing interests for OFF-1 and the appetite of Majors ( Druid et al take note! ) .
Re OFF-3 CEO answered the question which was at the back of my mind, as someone with limited O&G Exploration knowledge - how could the BP existing information be accessed and would that be super expensive? Listen to the interview to get that answer!
SamManbi - thanks for mentioning the presentation earlier today!
I didn’t think there was anyone around who hadn’t ever played Monopoly in their life - perhaps you never played the UK version - if so apologies you didn’t get my little joke!
BTW this is intended to be my last post tonight - wouldn’t want to be accused of monopolising!
GMSunshine - applaud your efforts to share the knowledge - the slides were on the CEG site but I missed that presentation from CEO and the answer to the immediate funds available question was interesting.
Put more colourfully seemingly CEO would prefer to eat his own meat and 2 veg before doing another Placing but if he’s reading this I’d caution against this for obvious reasons! If he believes he can hold out for 3/4 months imo he’d be better spending time now on a sensible contingency plan, such as bridging loan rather than panic in 3 months time and then be forced into a Placing. IMO that would be better for the SP - he did say he was struggling a bit to understand AIM - free advice for him!
CEG have more than their fair share of trolls who will highlight any weakness and some low life scum that lie and mislead to further their aim!
GarryGraham - if you are going to get involved again may I recommend you do proper research this time positives and negatives and if you decide to invest have the courage of your own convictions- if it’s successful allow yourself a pat on the back if it fails blame yourself not BOD or posters on chat boards.
This is a high risk investment for grown ups who understand the risks not for Post Office account holders moving just one step along the spectrum !
Rant over Garry!