Member Info for in4cedros

Bob - loved Partridge, had to refresh my memory about Bourdain and was led to the recent film review. Here’s a quote from The Guardian article:-

“ We hope this film serves as a reminder that every journey has a start, and that audiences see the beginnings of the man who taught us how to be better explorers on our own paths.”

I’m now taking that as an augur for Uruguay and The PELs - LOL!

LAMS - he’s probably looking out for your contact now, as we speak - unusually for top management he has confided he does read this board and has a GSOH. In fact, he probably enjoys it more nowadays cos historically he’d be lambasted by multiple trolls after every initiative, good or bad, bit like modern day TDS !

With his shareholding he could sell up and live comfortably, pursuing his well documented publishing career but he’s in it to win it here with this exciting O&G Exploration play, ( mustn’t forget, with multiple carried interests! ) - hope we can all profit from his commitment.

LAMS- thanks for link. I mainly listened to it again today so I wasn’t watching- did his tongue actually emerge from his cheek when he was talking about doing due diligence on Chevron when they were waving their chequebook around?

That’d be like me insisting on due diligence if Sofia Vergara propositioned me late on a Saturday night!

Picst - let’s not be hasty here - we’re getting to that time of the year when an outside bar can be a pleasant experience irrespective of whether you’re long on AAL!

BlackBat- I did contemplate extending my rather understated praise of Auctus with the suggestion that the report will be a boon to those that enjoy a bit of provocative ramping from time to time ( guilty as charged m’lud ! ) but you’ve made my point for me !

Oleo & Buffin - thanks for sharing links. Very professional production from Auctus - a comfort blanket for existing investors who understand delayed gratification but like to check in on enormity/progress once in a while!

From the questions it appears there are still some plaintive pre- merger Sintana shareholders around!

LAMY - many thanks, reluctant registration readers can find it on YouTube. Eytan fields questions before being timed out.

Blackbat - many thanks for the link to recent Sintana presentation. Interestingly the example of a farm out on OFF-1 down to 10% on a full carry suggests this is, indeed, the likely stance Sintana will adopt. Obviously percentage will be negotiating factor along with COS based on completed Seismic.

n4cedros

Member since Nov 2014

Posts: 6,310

Price: 31.50

No Opinion

RE: NAMIBIA and URUGUAY et al

10 Apr 2026 12:46

Marunam2 - good question as many long term Sintana holders have been pampered by the comfort of those salivating “ carried interests “ on many of the Orange Basin interests. Regarding OFF-1 Uruguay below is the quote from original CEG rns:-

·    Following the 3D seismic campaign, should Chevron decide to drill an initial exploration well on the AREA-OFF 1 block, Chevron will carry 50% of CEG Uruguay's share of costs associated with that well, up to a maximum of US$20 million net to CEG Uruguay.

My reading of the above is that for a hypothetical drill cost of say US$40 million Sintana’s share is US $16million @ 40% but Sintana would be carried for US$8 million, leaving them to find US $8million. 

Before Sintana merger Eytan posited the option of farming out part of the 40% interest to fund the the cost. Obviously Sintana may have other ideas - will be discussed more after Seismic results known.

SaintBaklava - thanks for your response. We’ll just have to disagree about the merits or otherwise of ‘ devotion ‘ . I believe most shareholders want to see this project through to completion so that they have a fighting chance of achieving ROCE.

As you say final product price is highly significant and you’ve made valid points about competing markets. I do, however, believe the mine construction and smooth transportation to exit port will be a major factor over the years in determining profitability and ability to compete, particularly with alternatives being shipped from the other side of the world.

Various pay back models exist suggesting less than a decade, based on relatively conservative assumptions but the bonus here is the expected life of mine, being a number of decades. Once the mine is producing analysts will be keen to include a ‘ present value ‘ in their target SP for this exceptionally long term resource requiring relatively low production costs. I might not be here to reap all the rewards but I’m reasonably confident the system will reward my perspicacity as well as, as you rightly say, my conviction!

You’ll be pleased to know your comments did stimulate me to revisit the current market for this type of product and I’m not unduly fearful that there will be a price war for fertiliser, IMO price will probably increase in the future but everyone will have their own views on that.

ATB with your investment here and thanks again for your well considered contribution!

Marunam2 - good question as many long term Sintana holders have been pampered by the comfort of those salivating “ carried interests “ on many of the Orange Basin interests. Regarding OFF-1 Uruguay below is the quote from original CEG rns:-

·    Following the 3D seismic campaign, should Chevron decide to drill an initial exploration well on the AREA-OFF 1 block, Chevron will carry 50% of CEG Uruguay's share of costs associated with that well, up to a maximum of US$20 million net to CEG Uruguay.

My reading of the above is that for a hypothetical drill cost of say US$40 million Sintana’s share is US $16million @ 40% but Sintana would be carried for US$8 million, leaving them to find US $8million.

Before Sintana merger Eytan posited the option of farming out part of the 40% interest to fund the the cost. Obviously Sintana may have other ideas - will be discussed more after Seismic results known.

Briggsy - seems like I undersold my ramping skills, SP up around 8% from time of my post today!

Briggsy, hope you are well. You’ve often concerned yourself about my ramping skills but you gotta admit they pale into insignificance when compared to Graeme Bagley, head of global exploration and appraisal at consultancy Westwood Global Energy. In commenting on the Coniacian currently being drilled by Shell in PEL39 he describes it as the ‘ Millennium Star ‘ interval, a reference to a 777-carat flawless diamond found in 1990 by De Beers in Zaire.

I’m not greedy, I’d be happy if Mopane approaches Koh-i-Noor levels LOL!

Stewart - I’ve just read the post about latest Shell venture - can’t follow your logic as it appears positive, to me, they are prepared to continue drilling. The negative historical drills were already known to the market - but may have contributed to weakness of Sintana SP in the 12 months prior to CEG acquisition, although Mopane is more of a focus for SEI and plenty of positive news there.

Obviously everyone has their own priorities, I am more focussed on fundamentals and potential as I believe the SP will ultimately reflect proven asset values when evidence is clear.

IK - good rise today, no doubt unknowns significant- this will really rocket when the unknown unknowns make themselves known LOL!

https://youtu.be/REWeBzGuzCc?si=JU4gQkf7Goth_ViI

Laallee - sound advice mate!

This is a high risk oil exploration share with assets suggesting huge potential - in fairness there may be better or worse high risk shares - most readers will have their own opinion.

I would, however, be very interested to hear about other shares that offer comparable upside to SEI which incorporate such a high level of “ carried interest “ . I wouldn’t compare it to the holy grail but it’s on the lower rungs of the ladder - have a great day mate!

Lots has been said about desirability of expanding market awareness of POLY 4 - have the AAL PR men reached out to famous son of Yorkshire Clarkson who spends plenty on fertiliser and monitors results on the worldwide shown Clarksons Farm programme?

SaintBaklava - many thanks for your reply which appears very genuine to me!

Please accept my apologies if you detected a whiff of scepticism - probably more than 3000 of my posts on LSE have been replies to Trolls and historically if I see a new poster with 18 posts which all seem, IMO a tad negative, I hope I can be forgiven for flirting with the thought that if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck …….LOL!

As you will gather from the above I enjoy a bit of banter with trolls and I’ve done it myself so I know it’s testing but when done well it can be devastatingly effective. Quite often I’ve learned much from trolls and it sometimes has caused me to re evaluate my position.

Getting back to Woodsmith I prefer to take a pragmatic view and look forward to the future, pretty much forgetting about the 5bn already in the hole when evaluating whether to spend another 5bn to achieve a finished project which could produce for many decades. Obviously if Mitsubishi take say 25% and pay 2.5 bn that would be great - it’s not cast in stone what % they will take and it’s also not stated, for me to see, that their possible 25% share would cost 2.5bn or they may get better terms. IMO AAL won’t roll over too much on the deal because AAL can, at a push, wave goodbye to a bad deal - I suggest they would have already pretty much agreed terms and wouldn’t have gone public without a good understanding, but until AAL bank cash and dot i’s and cross t’s it’s a little up in the air.

I am really pleased you have reacted positively to the Mitsubishi involvement, particularly with your experience in the field and your knowledge of end user markets.

AAL are a mega company and the BOD are paid to strategise the business for the future. They don’t know for sure what price per ton they will get for POLY 4 in the future but I suspect they’ve run a model with increasing population and fertiliser demand by farmers, particularly those wanting a “ green “ product. This is a long term punt that diversifies company income stream for the future and I applaud it. Copper’s been great for AAL but things can change as we saw with Platinum where volte face on EVs sent price from the doldrums to stratosphere in double quick time.

Onwards and Upwards!

Briggsy- I suggest you familiarise yourself with the Golden Goose fable - eggs are being presented regularly which more than meet my expectations and with these assets I’d say plenty more in gestation! I’ve repeated my February post covering latest eggs !

in4cedros

Posted in: SEI

Posts: 6,300

RE: Share price

17 Feb 2026 12:21

Good Morning Briggsy - I don’t know whether to be flattered or concerned that I’ve become the itch you cannot scratch! 

I’m naturally disappointed you didn’t respond to the mantra I coined in our last exchange “ stop your MOPING and get some MOPANE “ . You’ll notice from the recent comments by the Total CEO that they’re hugely bullish about that field’s potential such that it’s expected Auctis Advisors might well be revising their target for the SP well above the 80p plus already posited.

Sintana are also set to receive $9 million in the near future from Exxon for assets that were little more than a footnote in most analysts assessments so even naysayers like yourself would have to admit that will pay the wages for a couple of years, Notice I’m not calling this transformational like I did with the Chevron $15 million you didn’t think we’d get but it’s certainly significant and doesn’t sound like your comment - “ more raises and deck chair rearrangement “ ! 

TBH Briggsy IMO this Sintana play is growing on me day by day - it offers me the excitement of front line Oil Exploration with huge potential without the persistent concern I’ll wake up to a massively dilutionary fund raising RNS. If you’re going to continue commenting on this company Briggsy you should spend a little time understanding the assets - particularly the benefit to Sintana of being “ Carried “ on Mopane ! 

Have a good day Briggsy!

Stewart - thanks for your post, ‘twas a positive outcome regularising the licence and extending to next January. This will probably strengthen Pancontinental’s hand in any farm out negotiations as big players expect documentation to be in order.

Viewing the conditions stated in today’s SEI RNS it seems like first 2 are well advanced but third, exploration drill, is a big financial commitment before next January. It will, no doubt, be mind concentrating for Pancontinental.

I’m almost certain Sintana are carried for all 3 conditions, according to my research - but I haven’t seen the small print of the contract, I’m hoping the legacy Sintana experts will be able to reassure us on that.

The drill timeline here can be added to the other developments over next 12 months for a busy programme of exciting news and potential progress for Sintana.