Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
GG - I did posit an explanation for BP walking away some years ago - they did not know, at that time, how successful the drilling in Namibia would be. This is now known and the link to the Conjugate Orange Basin appears to be widely accepted by Majors - hence the interest from Shell et al. This development is significant because the prize on success is huge so it affects the risk/ reward assessment. I then went on to say that BP have now changed their stance on new exploration projects under new CEO Looney so even the new information probably wouldn’t justify a reassessment of the project.
RE: Block 3 License13 Jun 2023 10:49
GG - thanks for attempting to generate a reasonable discussion on here! Although you haven’t said it I’ve seen the usual suspect trolls posting up the line if BP rejected it it must be carp!
This is not unexpected and is an easy knee jerk reaction but it should be considered with facts!
When BP withdrew the Conjugate Orange Basin link had not been made with such strong evidence- hence current clamour for licences. Secondly if you Google BP and CEO Looney you’ll understand that with new very tight criteria it’s unlikely they’d consider even the sexy new Uruguay variant!
RE: Block 3 License13 Jun 2023 10:49
GG - thanks for attempting to generate a reasonable discussion on here! Although you haven’t said it I’ve seen the usual suspect trolls posting up the line if BP rejected it it must be carp!
This is not unexpected and is an easy knee jerk reaction but it should be considered with facts!
When BP withdrew the Conjugate Orange Basin link had not been made with such strong evidence- hence current clamour for licences. Secondly if you Google BP and CEO Looney you’ll understand that with new very tight criteria it’s unlikely they’d consider even the sexy new Uruguay variant!
Briggsy - I’m glad you are interested in FACTS - the Majors took 5 out of the 7 blocks available - they have pledged to spend circa $200 million on development - that’s not sounding like they lack confidence in the Conjugate Orange Basin linkage scenario but before you get carried away with my facts I feel I should issue a wealth warning for the clearly naive on here - this is oil exploration- it’s high risk and not guaranteed!
GarryGraham - The other Majors with Uruguay licences don’t need to ‘ promote ‘ - they wouldn’t have taken licences if they didn’t believe in the Conjugate Orange Basin scenario - some have pledged massive investment - you obviously missed that!
As people’s memories clearly decline over time I’ve cut n pasted the actual numbers - much less than 50/50 and that’s with maximum spin !
The independent analysis, just unveiled by BPC, calculated the company's "probability of success" for each of the seabed oil sources it is targeting as between 25 per cent to 35 per cent.
#Mr Potter said this far exceeded the oil industry's typical 5-10 per cent average, with Moyes & Co verifying that the amount of oil economically recoverable from BPC's southern Bahamian licence fields ranges from a mean of 8.3 billion barrels to "an upside" of 28 billion barrels.
#The consultants' technical audit of BPC's seismic data, and the company's interpretations of such, also confirmed the oil explorer's belief that the project can be economically viable with a field of just 200 million barrels.
#"Moyes independently calculated the probability of success (PoS) factors for each of the major reservoirs assessed, the majority of which were calculated in the 25 to 35 per cent range," BPC said of the consultants' findings. "Though a few are risked at 12-15 per cent.
#"Applying a recovery factor in the range of 20 per cent to 40 per cent to the Moyes [economically recoverable] volumes would result in an unrisked Estimated Ultimate Recoverable (EUR) in the range of 1.6 billion to 3.3 billion barrels (mean), and up to 11 billion barrels (upside)."
#Mr Potter told Tribune Business: "We've always been very excited by the project, and it's very large and of a global scale, but to have independent and technical experts endorse our own numbers is great.
#"It's very reassuring for us, and a great endorsement of the technical work we've done and the work we've asked them to do on our behalf. The economic threshold for a commercial development is somewhere below 200 million barrels, when the oil industry is average is 500 million to one billion barrels.
#"The audit confirms we can be commercial and viable below 200 million barrels, and the technical experts have endorsed multiple thousands of millions of barrels, not just 200 million."
#Mr Potter acknowledged that "the numbers can be eye-watering at times", but also pointed to Moyes & Co's assessment of BPC's drilling success prospects as far higher than the global oil industry's average.
#"They also said the probability of success is between 25 per cent and 35 per cent," he told Tribune Business. "That's very good from an oil industry perspective.
#"I wouldn't go as far to say it's a 'dead cert', but on a normal basis the probability of geological success is in the 1/10 and 1/20 range. This is 1/4, 1/3."
GG - your scenario appears reasonable however the Majors, having surveyed their own licences might prefer the CEG licence where 3 sites have already been selected as having excellent potential, as a result of existing survey information ( see recent RNS ).
JohnBriggs - only a complete moron would have such a skewed recollection of events - this company was finding it more and more difficult to raise capital pre drill as evidenced by the take up of offers.
What would be the chances of raising $30/40 million as a contingency fund, pre-drill? As it happens the BOD pulled off a master stroke by not raising that extra pre drill and persuading creditors to take a haircut close to $20 million- had you forgotten that?
GG - I sympathise with those who lost money on P1 drill but I certainly dispute it was a fiasco - the company published COS assessment BEFORE THE DRILL, from memory I’m suggesting it was less than 30% but I’m happy for someone to post up the RNS with the exact wording.
GG if you visited a Casino and covered 30 % of numbers at Roulette would you suggest it was a fiasco if the spin resulted in the chip landing on one of the 70% of numbers not covered? Was anyone forced to place that bet?
This company needs to reduce wage bill - lf senior executives are confident in strategy they should cut pay and improve share options.
Not electing Potter now would be a good start - BOD shouldn’t need to be encouraged to do the right thing - especially if the begging bowl is coming out soon!
Antha - your recollection of events pre drill may be different to mine LOL!
I noticed exponentially increasing shareholder angst each time they were diluted - imagine the reaction if the BOD had attempted to raise say $30/40 million for contingencies pre drill haha!
Druid - you talk about informed long term holders - I’m not seeing that - instead I’m seeing a disgruntled holder raking over the ashes and pulling out evidence lacking alternate theories!
I’m all for investigative journalism but, for me, there’s got to be more meat on the bone to get me gnawing!
Druid - re drilling of P1? Owners of Icemax reportedly wished to sue for the ‘ overspend’ - they eventually settled for the haircut, like the others.
If they didn’t drill that well they must have balls of steel to fabricate that story, bearing in mind they have drilled many wells, historically and reputational damage would probably be more than disputed amount- others can judge that for themselves - again unless you have evidence it’s just another baseless conspiracy theory.
Druid - thanks for reply.
Not my role to apologise for conduct of this company but it’s a small concern and it’s only as good as the staff they have. Ritson advised he had the ability to drill SWP if he had the finance.When Koot took over finance became available but he decided to apply due diligence to the inherited legal position and got Tony to apply the tooth comb.
Tony wasn’t happy but managed to thrash out a new deal which met the more robust criteria- as I said, detailed in RNS .
Most people, at the time, applauded that the company had renegotiated the deal as if drilling had been more successful the scaling / farm out/ sale possibilities could have been very valuable and resolving legals then wouldn’t have been viewed favourably.
I’m unaware if anyone else, but you, has their doubts about the ownership of SWP licence - I’m not intending to investigate further but if you want to ventilate on it, after studying the wording in the RNS I’m happy to opine - plenty of meat in that RNS.
At the time negative comments were expressed about the need for the renegotiation and I certainly raised my own eyebrows but better to admit past apparent lack of rigour than to gloss over it !
Druid - I’m not your financial or legal adviser so I don’t believe any information I provide will give you the comfort you appear to be looking for.
I’m inclined to think most investors, generally speaking, have to trust what’s offered to them by the BOD as often the opportunity to scrutinise all legal documents is just not available - even if it were some investors don’t have the legal training or expertise to apply the tooth comb.
I’m not guaranteeing anything here - those wanting guarantees shouldn’t be anywhere near this , imo, based on the government approved risk profiles - are you a shareholder - were you advised to buy in , if so, are they advising you to remain invested, if so, why?
19 March 2018
COLUMBUS ENERGY RESOURCES PLC
("Columbus" or the "Company")
Successful Renegotiation of BOLT transaction - Trinidad
Columbus, the oil and gas producer and explorer focused on onshore Trinidad with the ambition to grow in South America, provides the following update about the Beach Oilfield Limited ("BOLT") transaction and its aspirations for operations and exploration in the South West Peninsula of Trinidad ("SWP").
The Company has successfully restructured the BOLT transaction, on materially improved terms for the Company, and has entered into an Agreement for Lease with Singh's (Cedros) Estates Limited ("Singh Estates") to gain long term access to the South West Peninsula for oil and gas operations, including the Bonasse oilfield.
Leo Koot, Executive Chairman of Columbus, commented:
"Today's news is a major milestone for Columbus and further delivery of our strategy to build a core exploration, appraisal, development and potentially significant production hub in the South West Peninsula of Trinidad. We have successfully renegotiated the BOLT transaction on materially improved terms for the Company, we have entered into a new lease arrangement with the leaseholder, Singh Estates, and, most importantly, we have obtained 100% operational control over a large area (approximately 8,700 acres) in the South West Peninsula including mapped multiple prospects of 20-400 million barrels in place, which we intend on exploring, in addition to reactivating and maximising production from the Bonasse oilfield which is currently producing at a very low level. In line with our ongoing focus on capital discipline, the payments due under the renegotiated BOLT transaction and new lease arrangement are fully funded from existing cash resources and are included in the Company's 2018 Budget.
The changes to the over-riding royalty rates we have agreed, as well as the timing of their introduction and annual caps on those rates, means that a successful commercial development of the SWP following any exploration/appraisal success is now far more likely and will now be undertaken in a manner which works to the benefit of all interested stakeholders. Our fully funded 2018 work programme in the SWP includes commencing a well reactivation programme in Q2 2018 on the Bonasse field, alongside undertaking further analysis of the good quality 3D seismic and other data, with the first well potentially being drilled, subject to satisfactory technical analysis, in the first half of 2019.
I would like to thank BOLT and Singh Estates for their willingness to negotiate a deal that we believe offers the best chance for all parties to benefit from a revived and rejuvenated campaign on the SWP. We look forward to working with Singh Estates, the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries and other stakeholders to fully explore and develop the SWP. This is a very exciting time for the Company and all involved and provides a unique opportunity to potent