Mt take on Apollo Bid and ME Trip3 Jul 2023 20:17
Apollo knew 170p was roundly rejected by the larger shareholders (the 65% originally mentioned), didn't even get to a shareholder vote, last year so they had to be higher to stand a chance.
They offered 200p a share which was also roundly rejected by the 65% shareholders (price guessed on news of the final one being an improved offer).
Apollo offered 250p a share but this wasn't roundly rejected and 15% of the 65% were tempted by the offer (going by MM dropping the 65% to 50% when talking of larger shareholder percentage and the LinkedIn photo that was with the #nothanks).
MM realised that the next bid would be around 275 - 300p which would tempt even more of the remaining 50% so went to the Middle East to see if he had the financial backing to take it private at 300p if another Apollo improved offer came in. As far as I am concerned he wouldn't leave his "baby" exposed to a hostile bid, by dropping the GS, if he didn't have a plan in place to keep it one way or another.
I say £3 as MM has mentioned it a few times within his posts, of being the price a few years pre-IPO, and I believe he would love to take it back private even at that level as it is the same as 5 or so years ago but they are now a lot closer to the main goal.
All IMHO and you can trash it if you like but that is my take on the current situation. If I am wrong about this and THG is allowed to grow long term in FTSE250 or higher then that's fine with me as well :)