Member Info for ICB888

Whilst it would be preferable for the sp to be higher there is no good reason why this can’t be sold for £1 per share. If you recall the total disconnect between the share price and the value of CNR’s gold has been the case for years. The current sales process has been conducted as an asset sale in order to focus on the valuation of the gold and not the sp. This also allowed them to market it to more than 6 possible buyers. As has been said again recently by Mark this could change to a share sale once a deal can be struck. A deal can’t be far away now with the gold price at current highs and deals being done.

This is an extract from a DSM RNS explaining the rationale for their Orderly Winding Up:

“ The Board therefore considered the best and fairest ways to meet its commitment of returning capital to Shareholders, seeking to realise the best value, at the time of realisation, for them equitably and, as announced by the Company on 28 December 2023, the Board concluded that it would be advantageous to all Shareholders equally and fairly to commence a managed wind down of the Company's portfolio (the "Managed Wind-Down"). In order to implement the Managed Wind-Down a material change to the Company's published Investment Policy will require to be approved by Shareholders.

Under the proposed Managed Wind-Down process, the Company will be managed with the intention of realising all the assets in its portfolio in a manner consistent with the principles of good investment management and with a view to returning cash promptly to Shareholders in an orderly manner whilst seeking to obtain the best achievable value for the Company’s investments at the time of their realisations.

Background to and reasons for the ProposalA negative sentiment towards UK small companies has persisted over the past two to three years. Value and micro-cap investment strategies have equally been out of favour and the Company has not attracted a great deal of new investors, with the Company itself being a significant acquiror of its own Ordinary Shares. In addition, investment trusts are currently, generally trading at wide discounts and as the wealth management sector, a significant buyer of investment trust stock, itself consolidates there is little interest from such sector in small, specialist vehicles such as the Company.”

SEED could considerably reduce its overhead as it wouldn’t need to have people looking for new investments and wouldn’t need so many Directors. I cannot see the circumstances in which they will ever get the share price anywhere close to the NAV so the best way to reduce the loss of long term shareholders is to hand back the cash at NAV by selling all the assets over time.

SEED has proved a very bad investment for those in from the start on the back of Jim Mellon and his Fast Forward book. Massive value has been destroyed even measured against the current £10.5 million NAV. The actual market cap is about 70% lower and is more than covered by the £3.5 million cash. They have bought back shares and declared a 1p per share dividend however this has had no effect on the massive discount to NAV. The market has absolutely no confidence in the board and in those circumstances the only responsible course of action is to realise the NAV and return the cast to shareholders. I would draw the Boards attention to a small Investment trust DSM which is doing precisely that and has so far this year returned 90% of NAV.

“

Good to see some buys at the close take this Up 6.25% to 25.5p on volume of 381000. Perhaps we will have some more drilling results this week.

Now Up 16.13% to 3.6p as the volume reaches 3 million.

The share tip has clearly attracted attention to SVML currently Up 10.77% on volume of 166000 from 52 trades.

A much better performance by Oliver than in the recent stockbox interview a few days ago. Oliver referred to the Thor mining scoping study in 2018 which I mentioned in my last post. He basically said they have a good project based on that scoping study if they did do anything else. But they are drilling now to increase the size of the resource and its quality. The first drill has found the best grade tungsten ever at Pilot Mountain. They are drilling to change inferred to indicate because that’s what they need for the PFS which they are working on as a priority. Do take the time to listen to it.

The Thor Mining Scoping study gives some base case economics. What GMET is now doing with all the drilling is increasing the resource in terms of overall size and grade. Clearly they are succeeding in that and the economics will be greatly improved. Oliver says they are working so hard and at speed to enable the PFS to be produced as soon as possible. At that point he can speak about the economics of Pilot Mountain to everyone including the large miners who will want to buy the project.

Look at a Thor Mining 2018 scoping study referenced in an early RNS about Pilot Mountain:

“ Scoping Study Highlights

· Desert Scheelite operational life of 12 years with open pit mining over 11 years and one additional year to complete processing;

· Total Desert Scheelite forecast open pit production of 7.5 million tonnes;

· Annual throughput of 650,000 tonnes from the Desert Scheelite open pit, producing scheelit e concent rat es and copper silver concent rat es, plus z inc silver concent rat es;

· Preliminary analysis also suggests some potential for economic mining and processing from the higher grade Garnet deposit (inferred resource), supplementing production from Desert Scheelite;

· ·

·

· ·

A twelve year life of processing ore from open pit operations at Desert Scheelite;

Contract mining over 11 years to deliver forecast mine production to the proposed processing plant;

Annual forecast throughput of 650,000 tonnes from Desert Scheelite, generating approximately 1,000 tonnes of scheelite in concentrate per annum;

Capital Expenditure range of US$30 to US$35 million

Project payback of 36 months on the base case, reducing to less than 18 if metallurgical testwork, currently under way, is successful in improving recovery to 85% or above.

Pre-tax profit expectations from initial open pit operations ranging from US$125m base case from Desert Scheelite, up to US$317m, which includes improved Scheelite recovery, reduced mining costs at greater throughput volumes and the potential inclusion of Garnet mine production;

Study outcomes support a decision to commence a more detailed Pre-Feasibility Study to progress the project along the development pathway; and

No current primary tungsten production in USA where tungsten is classified as a strategic metal.”

Https://ndia.dtic.mil/wp-content/uploads/2024/eti/Tovar.pdf

From that report at the start of FY25 there are 3 grants to be awarded for Tungsten

$15.8 million for a Tungsten Mine

$6.2 million for a Tungsten Feasibility Study

$15 million for a Tungsten Feasibility Study

As we know GMET have applied so at least 1 of those grants should be for them and possibly 2 a feasibility study and a mine.

As time seems to be of the essence for the US to have its own production it would seem highly likely given the GMET business model that as the resource gets proven with the drill results it will be sold to a major or a major will come in as a partner to finance and undertake a rapid build mining project. That may well happen very quickly and catch out those who have been selling some recently. The announcement of a grant could also land at any time now which would also re energise the share price.

I don’t think people should be spooked by his “economic” comments. Oliver has to be very careful what he says in that regard because in the absence of a PFS, which they are in the process of producing he can’t make a statement regarding the economics of the project.

The Stockbox interview is out:

“Guardian Metal Resources Reports Highest Reported #Tungsten Grades at Pilot Mountain #gmet

hTTps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTOqCaOKGco”

Looking very promising from the first of many drill results.

Oliver Friesen, CEO of Guardian Metal, commented:

"Guardian Metal could not have asked for a better start to the Pilot Mountain drilling programme with the significant assay results achieved in the first drill hole PM24-001. The results demonstrate three distinct strongly mineralised tungsten-silver-zinc-copper intervals with the deepest interval remaining open at depth.

"Drilling has been ongoing since May and we are currently partway through the 21st hole, with drilling continuing at pace.

"The coming weeks and months will undoubtedly be the busiest period for Guardian Metal to date and we are looking forward to providing the market with commercial/technical updates, including further assay data and interpretation, as results continue to flow in from the laboratory.

"With Guardian Metal's investment in exploration and development and with the outstanding Project findings to date we consider Pilot Mountain to be a uniquely valuable strategic asset which we believe can contribute to various U.S. national security objectives, especially as, currently, there is no domestic production of tungsten, a much-needed critical defence metal."

SVML continues to advance the project at pace in accordance with its plan:

“ Sovereign Metals Limited (ASX: SVM; AIM: SVML; OTCQX: SVMLF) (Sovereign or the Company) is pleased to announce that it has successfully installed and commissioned an industrial-scale spiral concentrator plant at the Company's laboratory and testing facility in Lilongwe, Malawi.

The plant enables Sovereign to process material from the test pit mined as part of the Pilot Mining and Land Rehabilitation (Pilot Phase) at its Kasiya Rutile-Graphite Project (Kasiya or Project).

Managing Director Frank Eagar commented: "The new infrastructure allows Sovereign to deliver large-scale graphite pre-concentrate for qualification by its future potential customers. With a simple and conventional process flowsheet, Kasiya ore is processed at a throughput rate of up to 3 tonnes per hour for continuous sample preparation. Our PFS optimisation continues to advance as planned with oversight from the Sovereign-Rio Tinto Technical Committee."

Currently Up 6.56% at 32.5p following the same rise in Australia.

I think the Uranium JV will happen soon and that there aren’t any serious problems. It is not a good look to now be on the third deferred completion date as investor confidence issues can start to arise. I think both parties have failed to realise how transactions slow down during the summer holiday months and should have set a more realistic completion date, which should probably always have been the end of September.

Looking forward to the JV finally completing and the Saudi project to be firing on all cylinders which should lead to a serious re rate of the share price.

I hope Jim and Mark have read this article in today’s Times Business:

“ Future looks bright for goldmining takeovers

AngloGold Ashanti's £1.9 billion bid for Centamin could herald a wave of activity as the price of gold hits record highs and London-listed miners remain relatively cheap

The price of gold is likely to be boosted further by cuts to interest rates”

It’s a long article which makes it clear gold sector deals at all levels are happening big time.

A good steady rise so far today. Number 3 on the leaderboard Up 15.38% at 3p on volume of 3.8 million from 71 trades with Buys exceeding sells nearly 4/1.

Let’s go back to the start of this process. The company said the business was being built on 3 pillars, the Moroccan gas, the renewables and green hydrogen. We were told each of these pillars had the potential to be $1 Billion businesses in their own right. There has never been much if any value for pillars w and 3 in the share price, which has been totally focused on gas in Morocco. CHAR also has interests in Namibia, previously written off but which could now have substantial value.

This is an extremely disappointing day for shareholders but all is not lost.

Let’s revisit the updated figures in the latest presentation:

“ What is the impact of higher gold prices on La India Project?

Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) - filed on SEDAR 26/10/22 at US$1,600 oz gold

On La india open pit only, circa 40% of the 2.33M oz gold Mineral Resource.

Level of confidence to the industry standard of engineering design, to support +/- 15% capital and operating cost estimates

Probably Mineral Reserve of 7.3Mt at 2.56g/t gold for 602,000 oz gold

81,545 oz gold p.a for the first 6 years of an 8.4 year mine life

AT US$2,400 oz gold over life of mine, EBITDA increase to US$769M vs US$355M + 117%

Payback period 20 months, NPV US$320M, IRR 61%

AISC US$1,039

Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) - filed on SEDAR 25/10/21 - at US$1,550 oz gold

PEA all open pits scenario -adds in permitted feeder pits

120,000 oz gold p.a. over the initial 6 years of production

At US$2,400 oz gold over the life of mine, EBITDA increases to US$1,361M vs US$708M + 92%

Payback period 7 months, NPV US$607M, IRR 101%

AISC US$815

PEA all open pits + underground

150,000 oz gold p.a.over the initial 9 years of production

1,469,000 oz gold produced over 12 years

At US$2,400 oz gold over life of mine, EBITDA increases to US$2,317M vs US$1,205M +92%

Payback period 6 months, NPV US$906M, IRR 99%

AISC US$960”

The increases compared to those set out at the start of the process are essentially 100% higher with obvious implications for how much more quickly a buyer would recover their investment.

The gold price continues to fly ever higher and a lot of deals are now being done by gold companies as the share prices of the gold juniors start to move north. If Jim Mellon can’t get Condor sold for at least £1 per share in the current gold market it’s time for him to hang his boots up and retire to The Isle of Man or Ibetha.

The article doesn’t say anything that we haven’t already seen in the ENOG and CHAR RNS it simple grabs attention with a tabloid style headline about a duster. The initial impression it gives is that the whole drilling campaign is a duster which obviously is not true and that initial part of the drill was exploratory rather than appraisal. This share price is being played by the MM’s and the traders.