Member Info for Hounddog10

It may be that they have acted on your original instruction and accepted on your behalf. So the shares are now in escrow. The shares are still trading.

The initial reply you got seemed to me to be in “Indian English” (for a time I did some work in India and the style is similar to what I encountered there) and so it may be that Winterflood’s back office is in India which can complicate things.

It is very hit and (often) miss with these brokers and nominee shareholder providers. The staff don’t seem to get much training in more complex matters.

The Offer Document sets out a payment timetable of (up to) 14 days and (up to) an additional 5 days for those holding through nominee accounts. Generally this means the maximum amount of time is used.

A substantial amount of money is being transferred to shareholders - over £3bn. Whilst this is not a large amount of money to move by today’s standards the allocation of monies to hundreds of thousands of individual shareholders is a significant logistical exercise (the buyout of IDS is unusual in this respect). Therefore nominee shareholder service providers have the extra five days.

The clear impression given by the Offer Document is that the Special Dividend and buyout proceeds will be paid at the same time. However, a closer reading shows that it does not specifically say this.

Nominee shareholder service providers are used to routinely paying out dividends - so the Special Dividend may come earlier. Allocating and paying out buyout proceeds is more of a “one off”. I expect quite a number of nominee service providers may be using the extra five days to get that sorted.

For those who have not received their money it is probably best waiting to early next week before enquiring. Don’t worry, you will get your money. There has never been a major problem so far on this.

That sounds like a decent plan. Winterflood should know what is going on but whether systems wise that translates into Aegon getting its act together is difficult to know (surprising they have not contacted you about the extended offer). You will get slightly less if you sell (1p or so depending on market price) but unless Aegon are fairly immediately helpful and you want to battle their “helpline” if they are not it is probably best to sell. Better things to do in life. There is at least 14 days before the acceptance period closes as that is the notice period so there is time. However, it is easy to let 14 days slip away.

They need to explain what is going on. Although the placing has impacted the share price in a good way and everyone is happy with that (personally I thought SYM was heading for near bankruptcy or enormous further dilution by the Sea Pearl convertibles and so likely be bought out by Indorama for a nominal amount) there must be something Quantum knows that is not in the public domain. Given SYM’s appalling history of over promising and non delivery (which one must assume Quantum was aware of before committing £2.5m) it can only be assumed that Quantum has come in on such a massive multiple because there is something favourable near term that can underpin their investment.

It is getting rather late now for the results. I would not be surprised to see them out next week.

20p v 3p? This is possibly the strangest thing I have even seen in capital markets. I still hold my shares (massive mistake not to have sold when it was a COVID stock). What is going on? The subscription seems to be around investing in the ME. Note they have not gone to Indorama for more money - who have probably run out of patience.

@ebygum

That is a bit curious because the RNS announcement says that trading will continue until delisting on 2 June:

“ Under UK Listing Rule 21.2.13R, IDS announces that the notice period for the cancellation of listing and trading of the IDS Shares has now commenced and cancellation of listing and trading of the IDS Shares is expected to take effect no earlier than 8.00 a.m. on 2 June 2025”

Perhaps they are applying some earlier internal deadline. I think the brokers and nominees no longer understand takeovers very well and also, possibly, take different approaches.

@Shrewsburymarket

Trading continues until 2 June or possibly stops earlier on 28 May per FD/HSBC (see above). The acceptance extension period can go on from some time (my distant memory of the Takeover Rules on this is up to 3 months - rules may have changed since) but it is entirely at the discretion of DK - but there is a 14 day notice period. I don’t think it is necessarily tied to delisting and the cessation of trading. However, there is no upside in waiting - you are not going to get more money. So accept or sell as soon as you can.

You still have time to accept. There is a rolling 14 day notice period before the offer closes. However, I would urge you, for peace of mind, to act now.

The email Aegon sent you was in relation to the original acceptance period which ended on 30 April. We are now in an extension of the acceptance period. I would suggest you check in to your online account with Aegon and go to the corporate actions page and you should be able to accept there. The procedures should be set out in the email you got and should still apply. If there is a problem then ring their helpline. Similar approach to Trading212. That is, I think, a much smaller outfit and quite likely is much less clued up (these organisations generally are not very good on what to do in takeovers).

You still can sell but you will get very slightly less than the offer price of 360p (say 359p) depending on the market price so you may prefer the acceptance route. You do get your money quicker if you sell.

I was going to suggest much along the same lines as @Newdealz. I am not entirely clear what you mean by being in a corporate nominee account. Is it an employee IDS Share Plan? I would have thought whatever it is you should have had some communication from them as to what to do. I am not familiar as to how these plans works in a takeover situation and whether things happen automatically - but I certainly would not assume that. I would suggest you call on Tuesday the administrator (or corporate actions team, if they have one) of the corporate nominee. If you have relevant contact details you might be able to email them this bank holiday weekend to start the enquiry (but best follow up with a phone call). It is their job to help.

As @Newdealz points out there is also the Equiniti helpline which can give you some general advice if the corporate nominee is not being helpful. There is some time left, but not much, so I would strongly suggest dealing with it first thing the first working day next week.

The Offer Document says that the £3.60 and 8p Special Dividend will be paid out at the same time. This seems, per the Offer Document, to be (no later) than 14 days plus (no later) than an extra 5 days for shares held in a nominee account or the IDS SIP. Some on this board are saying they are being told by their broker/nominee provider only 14 days. That may well be right but normally when “no later” is said the intention is to use up all the time.

@Slimsid

There is a further 14 day acceptance period but as you have share certificates you need to send them in with your acceptance form as you don’t have the option of accepting instantly online. The risk is on you to get them in before the deadline and for that you will be at the mercy of Royal Mail (!). It is suggested that you leave at least four days for posting. I would suggest you do it asap. There is absolutely no upside in delaying.

Previous note got chopped off towards the end.

“I think IDS are in for some challenging times but I don’t think they will be worse off under DK. Quite possibly a good deal better.

Good luck to everyone.”

@Newdealz, @Shinyfings, @Sid786, @Heredomethenice, @Knoydarts

Thank you - it is kind of you to say so. I hope some of my comments have helped a bit. These transactions are quite difficult to understand particularly as the Offer Document is drowned in legalese. I would just add the following tidying up points:

(1). If anyone has not yet accepted just accept or sell (and best to act quite quickly). It is over now. Accepting and you get the full 368p but in 14 days or so (see (6)). By selling you probably get a bit under 368p but the money should be with you somewhat quicker - eg in the normal two day settlement period if you trade through a broker.

(2). You will, as has been discussed, get compulsorily bought out if DK meets the 90% test. However, although people (including myself) talk loosely in shorthand about 90% of overall acceptances the actual test is DK needs to get to 90% acceptances by the minority ie excluding his stake. So overall he needs, if my maths is correct, to get to 92.7%. That will be quite a tough ask given the fairly large number of smaller shareholders who may not take action until, too late, they realise they cannot sell their shares - so don’t assume compulsory buyout will happen. Positive action needs to be taken.

(3). If you voted no I don’t think you can now accept (worth checking) but you can sell.

(4).The acceptance period remains open for another (minimum) 14 days and trading until (minimum) 2 June. It may well be that the acceptance period gets extended (I think it can potentially go on for 3 months under Takeover rules) but don’t rely on that. I would be doubtful if the trading period is extended.

(5). The shares go ex dividend in relation to the Special Dividend tomorrow so expect around a c8p drop in the share price as the Special Dividend entitlement becomes separated from the shares. I can never remember at what time ex dividend happens. I think it is the start of the day but it may be the end (and so only show up on the next trading day).

(6). The basic timeline for payout of the Special Dividend and buyout proceeds is 14 days. However, for those in nominee accounts and the IDS SIPP (so most smaller shareholders) there seems to be an extra 5 days plus any extra time the nominee/SIPP operator specifies in their T&Cs. Call it around 3 weeks, but quite possibly a bit quicker. There also seems to be potentially different arrangements for the IDS Share Plan shareholders where payouts are likely to be processed through payroll. Whether this is month end or a special run is not specified.

(7). This takeover was effected by the traditional route of Contractual Offer which is quite rarely used now. Most takeovers nowadays are done by Scheme of Arrangement which is usually, mercifully, easier and quicker. So the timeline and considerations for this takeover do not readily translate to other takeovers.

I think IDS are in for some challenging times but I don’t think they will be

80%

@PostmanPorsche, @Shinfings

Yes that’s what’s happened. Shinyfings’ shares are now in escrow - sold to DK provided the deal goes through. The deal, of course, has yet to go through. Absent any technical glitches we should know by end today whether DK has been successful - quite possibly by around mid afternoon.

2/2

Inpost just bought Yodel this month (to add on home delivery) and bought Menzies last year. It is gearing up for a fight and if it (and others) even make small inroads into RM’s parcel business (which is employee rather than contractor based) RM’s parcel business will have difficulties.

I think what PIs don’t entirely appreciate is the impact of RM’s cost base of £8bn (mostly staff costs) and revenue of somewhat less. 1% of £8bn is, of course, £80m. So if RM gets into a position of say costs going up by 2% for just inflation and they cannot recover that through volume and/or price increases then £160m down. If, say, revenue also goes down by 2% due to competition then they are c£320m down. It is the law of large numbers or “jaws” as City analysts like to talk about. Any savings on eg the USO has to be seen in this context. The really big saving that RM could make is moving to a contractor model but this will be fiercely resisted by the CWU.

In short it is quite difficult to see RM having a clear path to consistent and meaningful profitability in the next few years - which is what institutions look for. There is a decent risk that it will hover around breakeven or even make substantial losses in certain years.

The GLS side of the business does well but it is smaller and the business has softened a bit recently.

DK may do well in the longer term but that is probably outside the horizons of the City.

1/2

@mike1974

To answer that question I would say that PIs are underestimating the challenges that the Royal Mail side of IDS faces. The decline in letters is, of course, well known and I would imagine that by 2035 there will hardly be any (although perhaps still 500m). That, in itself, is a difficult backdrop. Rather to my surprise the revenue from price rises on letters has outweighed volume declines. However, letters are so expensive now that I cannot see it lasting.

On the parcel front, which has always been cut throat but is seen as the future, I will give a small anecdote. Around where I live about three locker stations have opened up in the last year. One is an Inpost locker station (70+ lockers) at a new BP service station with attached convenience store. A couple of weekends ago I was waiting for the convenience store to open and it coincided with the Inpost locker station being serviced. There was a guy putting parcels in lockers for collection. Very clever stuff. The locker station has near field wireless and all he had to do was take the parcel out of the large canvas bag, scan the code and a locker door automatically opened to pop the parcel in. Matter of seconds. He did about sixty parcels in around 10 minutes. He had already taken out the parcels (probably same amount) that had been dropped off and I would guess all he did was press a button and all the relevant locker doors opened. I doubt the whole operation took more than half an hour. So over a hundred parcels dealt with at point of delivery/pickup. There was another guy in a van - which was unbranded so I assume they were contractors. Two people. For Royal Mail to deliver that to homes in a fairly rural area much much more time. And Inpost captures revenue on drop off.

Bear in mind that the Inpost locker station has only been around for about a year so there has been very quick social acceptance.

This is what Royal Mail is up against. They are way behind on Out-of-Home delivery and only just starting now. It is going to require a good deal of investment which will require funding.

@mike1974

Well all I see are strong indications that it will go through, viz:

(1) Bid is recommended (normally the end of it but here we have an extended timetable).

(2) Almost all major City banks are working on the deal and their fees are conditional on success. They don’t waste their time.

(3) The share price has progressively moved up to close to the takeover price of 368p which is normally a strong indicator of a successful bid.

(4) Big leveraged long positions having been built by certain hedge funds. They have a lot to lose if the bid fails and so will have thought carefully about it.

(5) Morgan Stanley has built up a big long position. Whatever their exact strategy again they will lose in the near term if the bid fails.

(6) DK has a blocking stake so there can be no realistic expectation that other bidders can come in subsequently and buy if his bid fails (unless he is prepared to sell out).

(7) If the bid was in trouble DK has the option to drop (with Panel acceptance) the acceptance level to as low as 51%. The reason the acceptance level is set at 75% is that is what is needed to delist. He could, however, get control and look to buy up shares subsequently to 75% and delist (although he may not want to do it that way). He could also be buying in the market to push the bid over.

(7) Many mainstream fund managers tend to be quite short term and herd together. You tend to be more at risk of being fired if you an outlier and wrong. The current price seems to be good enough for them.

More generally I have not read anything in the business press that suggests DK’s bid is in trouble. Quite the reverse. It seems to be considered a done deal. With so many City institutions involved there would be rumours of possible failure and that would be leapt upon by the press.

However, I might be wrong but at least in the company of others.

@Wirralboy

The recent price performance (now nearly 368p) and the long positions of, particularly, event driven hedge funds would suggest that the takeover is a near certainty. More like 90%. However, you are right. You can never be entirely sure. We are about to find out how acceptances on Friday ahead of the nominee shareholder deadline (ie smaller shareholders) has worked out. I would be surprised if it is more than a couple of percentages up but there may have been a last minute rush.

@Talk2Much

The 8.3 forms are not an easy read. It should be noted that they show any movement in ECONOMIC interests above 1%. That does not necessarily correlate with the ability to vote and so the form needs to be read quite carefully for the detail. A good deal of the economic interests reported on certain form 8.3s are through cash settled derivatives. These are a play on the price performance of IDS and although they are generally long positions carry no entitlement to vote (stock settled derivatives do mean potentially you get your paws on the underlying stock and so could vote but I have not seen any of those).

Syquant (a hedge fund) has a significant economic position but as far as I can see it is entirely through CfDs (Contracts for a Difference). This is a cash settled derivative that does not confer the right to vote. This is not particularly clear from their 8.3 form which is different from the ones others use and not the latest standard. Perhaps this is an old form or because as Syquant are French they will do their own thing.

I had a quick look through the last couple of days or so of form 8.3s. When a takeover bid is initiated any entity or person with over 1% of shares has to disclose their position and if it changes report that change daily on form 8.3. The following are the main holdings that were recently disclosed:

Jefferies International - 0.568%

AQR Capital Management - 0.44%

Legal & General - 1.09%

Societe Generale - 1.13%

Vanguard - 3.63%

Black Rock - 4.47%

Bank of Nova Scotia - 2.36%

Morgan Stanley - 10.13%

TOTAL: 23.8%

(The IDS Share Incentive Scheme also has 4.82% but that will be voted individually).

The holdings above exclude any positions they have in cash settled derivative positions that would not give them a vote (that is why Jefferies and AQR show up in the list despite being under 1% - they have additional derivative positions). Further, the list does not show any institutions that are above 1% but have not, in the last couple of days, changed their share holdings. Schroders comes to mind - they must still have a decent size holding but I could not easily find their last form 8.3. There will also be plenty of institutions lurking under 1%.

I would imagine the institutions have yet to vote and will accept. Today’s acceptance level is 41.41% and it will probably be boosted somewhat in Monday’s acceptance report as people accept ahead of the deadline today.