RE: What am I missing20 Jun 2025 09:31
I think like so many AIM companies SRT has, over the years, struggled to get to a consistent level of profitability (or indeed profit) and realisable revenue expectations. So the market does not yet believe what is going on (or is not paying attention). It is also worth noting that as tax losses will shortly be used up the likely £70m gross margin on MDA revenue will attract tax at 25% - so any p/e to market cap has to take that into account. There is also the fact that the AIS side of the business does not quite yet cover overheads. Balanced against these factors is that a p/e for a company with the developing potential of SRT would normally be much beyond 10 - 20, 30, 40 even? Difficult to know.
I would also add that, as the market looks forward, in order to get a better valuation I think some of the £1.2bn pipeline needs to be seen to come to fruition. At the moment there is only MDA visibility for the next two or three years. Personally, I think they need a couple of new biggish projects on the MDA side to come through in 2026 or so to carry them through 2027 - 2029. If that was to happen I think there would be a very big leap in valuation.
The other matter is NEXUS which I think may be substantially underrated. Obviously some rollout problems at the moment. However, assuming they can sort those problems out the potential could be very large. SRT has said there are 30m vessels globally. How many are new or want a retrofit each year and would want a combined new voice/AIS system? 10%/3m or 5%/1.5m? Could SRT flog 1,000, 10,000, 50,000 or 100,000 units per year of that? The RRP seems to be around £1,600 (excluding sales tax). Gross margin (if like other AIS products) is, say, closing 50%. £800 x 10,000 units is £8m. Even 1,000 units is £800,000 and they won’t have done the investment for such a small anticipated volume. Haircut these numbers for more conservatism but they do give a sense of direction.
It seems to me that the share price is quite robust around the 70p plus mark and so may be ready for another leg up. Hopefully, there will be a good trading update next month and we may hear some positive news about NEXUS. New MDA projects are more next year in my view. Anything earlier than that is a bonus.