Member Info for HotblackDesiato

Hi SD - I presume you didn't approach RF to buy direct from them? Either way, full marks if you have a wodge of cash to buy big.

Good luck.

Yes Potnak, do you want a world where it's survival of the fittest or one where parents can ensure their child will be forever healthy (assuming the child will grow up to make suitable lifestyle choices i.e. not smoking etc.)?

As someone with very elderly parents, the thought of even more octogenarians cluttering up the place fills me with horror. They seem to have a never ending list of tasks for me - this morning I was trying to tackle a blocked kitchen sink for them (don't get me started). I'm also trying to sort out power of attorney - now there's a source of endless bleedin' joy. But nevermind because I've also got a plasterer to deal with next Monday. Did I ever mention the hours on the phone to Virgin Media for them too?

Sorry, turning into a teeth-grinding post. Must go and watch Logan's Run....

Probably over the next 20yrs or so we will transition from treating cancer to reducing the odds of developing cancer in the first place through gene editing of the foetus before we're even born. It just means the gene editing company makes the money rather than the pharmas who sell current treatments - why wait 50yrs (or whatever) to start charging someone for cancer treatment when you can charge the parents before you're even born!

Hi Krone - probably their legal dept. covering all the bases just in case.

I know SOG's outlined why he thought 737 was handed back (no point owning a compound potentially in competition with another you have etc.) but I wonder if GSK's longterm plan was/is -

1. if they kept 737 then they would have had to develop it further before the 'timed out' clause was triggered. Although they maybe wanted to develop it, their priorities lay elsewhere. Otherwise, they would have been happy to hold onto it.

2. the landscape is always changing with new drugs being announced or development being cancelled. Are GSK now in a position where 737 would fit into their pipeline?

3. if they are now interested, would they only want 737 or does 1801/2 show enough potential for them?

4. If they were interested in a t/over of SAR, do our BoD consider us so close to validating 1801 that they won't entertain any offers until they know what indications it could treat therefore maximising a return to shareholders?

All just idle speculation.

Evening SOG - whilst a valuation north of a billion may appear utterly ludicrous to some posters here, we live in a world where such deals seem to be announced on a near weekly basis.

The various delays and hurdles faced by Tim & John must have sapped their energy at times over the years but good data from 1801 will no doubt reinvigorate them (and the sp), especially if it means a comfortable retirement to the Bahamas is within reach.

Hi Krone - Potnak may be right if we were to license for a reasonable upfront payment then add milestones etc. so we get to £2bn eventually.

My own preference would be a full buyout next summer after we get solid data out of 1801. With 1802 being a broadly similar molecule, a pharma may take a chance on it ahead of clinical trials. However if we ever see a deal on 737, the money could accelerate 1802 into trials directly with cancer patients. As it's a similar compound to 1801 we can skip the trials on healthy individuals (assuming 1801 doesn't hit any snags).

As I referenced in another thread the other week, I think Tim has put a notional value of £800m on both molecules so £1.6bn plus whatever 737 might be worth. The squeaky chair could be thrown in too just to sweeten the deal.

Morning Laz - has any broker note for any share ever been accurate?

On a slight tangent, with the sp looking pretty stable at the moment I wonder if the poster who said they had a chunky 6-figure sum to invest has bought direct from RF. If they did, I'm not sure how the trade would show or even if it would show at all.

For the record, MAJ, I didn't report your post.

It might be fair to say 99% of posters on any share forum want their share to succeed so is it any surprise to you when negativity (no matter how speculative) appears and longer term investors get a bit miffed?

It would seem that some posters have based their entire outlook here solely on the reputation of RiverFort. That is one bold strategy. Such posters may do well to look at the wider picture and recognise SAR's potential is many multiples of the current sp.

Possibly the bigger question is what sort of individual wants a company to fail in order to make a few percentage points by shorting? By any chance do you have huge paper losses in RiverFort and you're attempting to make money here?

Crikey, that was quick!

MAJ - sometimes assumptions can turn out to be correct. Anyway, how's that death spiral coming along? SP seems to be holding steady. Meanwhile take a look over on the RiverFort board. Oh dear......

A request to other contributors on this thread: careful what gets posted as we don't want the whole thread to be removed due to the actions of a few.

Https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-announces-extension-of-fda-review-period-for-momelotinib/

If the FDA don't approve Momelotinib then GSK may have backed the wrong horse. Only a few days to wait.

Morning Krone - I'm hoping the apparent delay in 737 news is just a symptom of there being multiple parties interested in it. Even if there are just two pharmas involved, add accountants and lawyers into the mix and it's no wonder a deal can take ages to appear.

If we've reached the stage where the orderly queue has fizzled out then the BoD would have to tell us either the CPF/CRUK are looking to advance 737 themselves (requiring us to put our hands in our pockets if we want to retain 27.5%) or it's been relegated to the shelf in the hope someone spots it at some future date.

I'm still of the mind that the RF deal was structured more like a bridging loan whilst we await an imminent 737 deal or even a 1801 deal in the new year.

Having just read a New Scientist article on AI, I thought I'd ask a couple of AI search engines which company is most likely to be interested in buying SRA737. The NS article reminds us AI search engines are prone to confidently trumpeting falsehoods as facts, something often referred to as “hallucination”, because their output is entirely statistical. They don’t do fact-checking so their output might be plausible but not necessarily true as the results below show!

iAsk.AI returned, "The company most likely to be interested in buying SRA737 is AstraZeneca. AstraZeneca is a multinational pharmaceutical company with a strong focus on oncology research and development. They have a track record of acquiring innovative biotech companies and drug candidates to expand their pipeline and strengthen their position in the oncology market. AstraZeneca has demonstrated interest in CHK1 inhibitors, making them a prime candidate for acquiring SRA737.

One of the main reasons why AstraZeneca would be interested in acquiring SRA737 is its potential synergies with their existing portfolio of oncology drugs. AstraZeneca already has several targeted therapies and immunotherapies in their pipeline, and adding SRA737 could complement their existing assets and provide additional treatment options for patients.

In terms of market dynamics, the oncology sector is highly competitive, with numerous companies vying for breakthrough therapies that can address unmet medical needs. AstraZeneca's interest in SRA737 aligns with their strategy to stay at the forefront of cancer research and offer innovative treatments to patients."

So far, so good (or plausible). I then tried perplexity.ai which produced this gem - "Sareum Holdings is the company that has a 27.5% economic interest in a licensing deal covering SRA737. Therefore, Sareum Holdings is most likely to be interested in buying SRA737. However, it is important to note that there is no information available to suggest that Sareum Holdings is actively seeking to buy SRA737 at this time."

Ahh, you pays your money and takes your choice!

Morning C79 - just had a quick read of the XS-02 article and see it's a CHK1/2 inhibitor rather than 737's CHK1-only approach. As you say, time will tell as to how good it really is however at least we're ahead of the game having been through P2 trials. Thankfully the world of oncology is broad enough to allow for many different types of treatment to be developed.

Mathsprof - a bit short sighted of you to be comparing us with Genedrive when you say, "...I don't know anything about the company (GDR)".

You have to look at each deal and the company in question in isolation. Also, as I've said before though I think the thread was removed, RF don't seem to be in rude financial health themselves so their own business model may be critically flawed.

Thanks for the reply, Potnak. Yes, I know Tim is always rather cagey on the subject of values but that £800m figure stands out in my mind for some reason.

Hi Ahfam - this might be an interesting read https://www.fiercebiotech.com/special-reports/10-highest-value-rd-projects-biopharma

One thing to note is that it says, "Evaluate analysts told Fierce Biotech that recent oncology launches have brought in incremental rather than standout value once they become commercial products. “There hasn’t been another Keytruda,” according to a spokesperson for the analytics company. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors, once thought to be the next big thing in oncology, haven’t delivered the returns that many in the industry expected."

Hi Potnak - didn't someone ask Tim during a meeting what he thought the value of 1801 might be and he suggested £800m? I looked back through the written responses to Investor Meets questions but can't find reference to that figure.

Am I imagining things?

I've been taking a look at the trials docs, trying to guesstimate when part 4 might start (psoriasis patients) and think early to mid December based on -

Trial started early June, 6 cohorts in part 1 and the safety committe required data from a minimum of 3 cohorts before allowing part 2 (multidose) to start. Part 2 has now started and they are recruiting for part 3 (food effects). Part 3 can run parallel to part 2 and it only has one cohort of 16 people.

If we assume it took 12 wks to get half of part 1 done then we still have another 12wks or so for its other 3 cohorts. It's possible that the 4th cohort was also complete when the safety committee reviewed the data so we might be slightly ahead of schedule in that respect.

Irrespective of RF selling off their shares and thwarting steady sp increases, I can see an early Dec RNS announcing the dosing of psoriasis patients transforming the sp.

Mind you, I don't think any of my predictions have ever been correct!

Crumbs C79, and I thought I was doing well to add another 625 shares last week.

Regards.