Member Info for horace678

The revaluation of the Carlisle shares to 108p was supposed to have happened on 9 April, with the issue of the Shellproof dividend. However, the market makers seem to have misinterpreted the situation and have marked the price down prematurely, so on 9 April the Carlisle shares will have to come down to around 90p to account for the fact that £4m of the Carlisle assets are being given away to Shellproof.

You will get 1 Impellam share for 50.4 CSV shares. The price of the Impellam share depends on the price of Carlisle, since Carlisle shares are being exchanged for Impellam shares on a 1-for-1 basis. The calculation of 2.15 is based on the price of Carlisle shares being 108p, but this calculation is merely illustrative. The market makers this morning seem to have misunderstood the situation and have marked the price of Carlisle shares down to 100-108p. However, the price will have to drop a further amount to account for £4m of the assets being given out as the Shellproof dividend, which at the present valuation of Carlisle at 108p would take the price of Carlisle down to around 90p (a drop of 13.5%). As of writing this would value CSV shares at 90p / 50.4 = 1.78. However, Carlisle is now grossly undervalued at a PE of around 5, so the long term prospects look good whether you buy CSV or you buy CXG.

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=1958842

I bought a load at around 9p and have lost money - when the merger news was announced I bought a load at 2p. I've spent hours trying to work out the figures, but there simply isn't enough information there to know the planned price of the CSV shares. In my estimate it could be as much as 3.5p. As you know, Ashcroft likes to make complicated deals.

In my opinion, the Newco in the deal to acquire or merge with Carlisle and CSV will be Cockleshell, capitalised at 25m and launched as a shell company in December. We can't know exactly what the price of the CSV shares will be, but it has to be sufficient to satisfy Dresdner who have bought a load of shares, like Ashcroft, at a much higher price, e.g. 8p, 10p etc...

judging by the price, it looks as if the former chairman bought the shares a month or so ago...

I value the CSV share price at 2.5p, so it's a buy recommendation if the deal goes through.

Yes, if you look at the trading history, you will notice that most of the trades are 'Automatic Execution' will implies that the computers have been making the price go down. The graph shows that the share price is volatile historically. Though the company is trading well it also has debts of over £55m. Lord Ashcroft has 29.48% of the shares and in my opinion will put in a bid at some point.