Member Info for HopefulDave

Andy you don’t know it will be a public / institutional offer yet.

If it’s “only” $400m it could be Gina Mk II. That could easily go in a Royalty deal with ~$50-100m in equity that never hits the market.

I assume risk is transferred to the tunnel contractor by stating they will deliver the tunnel by date X based on a gain of was it 17m a day by each of the TBMs?

If they deliver by date X they get their maximum reward and max budgeted amount.

If they don’t deliver by X then they first lose the bonus, then an amount of “pain” is felt by them for each ( n ) days or weeks they are potentially late.

Not difficult to work out pain / gain contract on a project schedule?

Maybe as part of that acceptance (and bank due - diligence) they insisted on thicker walls (less risk?) and a slower rate (less risk?) and the contractor has a sufficient reward for finishing on time. On budget? Well that will now be the contractors problem (less risk to lenders / SXX) ?

As fair as pain / gain goes. We have had our pain today but still have very nice gains to come. Might take a little more time now to get that fluffy 40p+ baseline but it will come.

The one plus out of all this is post ST2 when all the dust settles, the project / financial risk is heavily on the contractor side, and they are well incentivised to deliver on time (or earlier) which despite the “financial” delay of ST2, it currently doesn’t seem to be delaying our project schedule..

Gallini. Not sure if anything else will pop up in Montana land before the RNS itself.

They have a more up to date website now, maybe we could see that the work has happened, and waiting on results, if we hadn’t heard it had started, but I guess it’s the results we looking forward to!

My guess is they’ll get to it and at some point this month, and then who knows how quickly we will get any kind of follow up news result as I’m not sure how long will it take to get a stable flow rate?

What we do know as it’s the one stage it should be a quick “keyhole surgery like” operation in comparison to ED well work, “plug”? Singular? not 55 plugs! ?

So I’d hope we’d get an RNS staying it’s started, hopefully on a Friday, as the chances are by the Monday you could have initial data, but no idea if they will want to keep going for a few days, a week, I mean how long could it take the flow to peak and stabilise?

Appreciate any thoughts Fad might have on that....

My guess is RNS it’s started. Day-days later RNS on initial rate + hopefully it’s increasing. X days until peak / sustained rate of x.

And then depending how busy some thoughts on what they want to do next accordingly.

Nothing more than my thoughts on that.

Sub or Fad if about might know if we get to see any paperwork beforehand or not.

News overload would be nice and Helios could be start or middle of it all...

WD leasing, Kansas stuff, Helios, ED update...

From memory some initial ones may go back to 2016 but 5 years and the state ones I think were 10 years. Not sure on the definition of drilling / producing but we already drilled and “produced” albeit flared some gas.. so I don’t think we have any issues with leases expiring etc to worry about. (Doesn’t mean we will take 3 more years to drill it....) !

Myo. I think the statement is we don’t want to go above $3bn in debt (or lenders don’t want more than that) So the fact $1.5bn is on the table as unsecured debt already is very good. The government should be able to underwrite the $1.5bn (transport - MTS component?!) The additional funds then raised on the basis of the debt being in place (as long as those funds are raised). A far cry from the ST1 position. A) because its a lot more than a field. B) because the sales commitments should be there. C) as it’s ST2 not ST1 and final fundraise. D) Contracts have much pain / gain added to them so risk is pushed heavily into the contractors not SXX. E) Most of the big ticket items are all costed! Whilst not ideal. Many here predicted a small component of equity. I didn’t but then didn’t see the extra requirement for $ coming. The fact they have $1.5bn on the table as unsecured debt, and the guarantee was up to $2bn and we only need $1.5bn now of that guaranteed debt is promising in itself. The $4-600m shouldn’t be difficult to come up with once the rest of the components all fall into place. And the construction risk is greatly pushed onto the contractors (perhaps more than before) ! Add to that the 3m TorP possibilities in Brazil and Europe and we still have plenty of other places we could increase it’s certainly not all doom and gloom!

As long as it rises out of our wells in the future we’ll be doing quite nicely!

Back to here meanwhile... and the Helium price is stonking. Should get the website update as still says circa $100 I think on there. That is a huge chunk of change and unlike mines (meh) and oil prices it doesn’t seem to drop just rise! :)

Had heavily diversified into here, making that sideways move look like a dream investment despite the drop in HNR’s price! Still holding circa 1m over there across various accounts so just the £100k wiped off the portfolio at present from a few days ago 38- only few days ago 22p-28p Great opportunity at low 20’s earlier if anyone grabbed any there well done... Sounds like they have $1.5bn in unsecured debt already committed. The extra spend is on the mineral transport system mostly so should all get covered by the infrastructure guarantee by gov so fully expect the next $1.5bn to be covered by debt to, but that does leave $400-$600m to find. But that will come as part of the final package once debt is done. At that point overall would have spent (or committed to) $4.8bn so the $400-600m doesn’t actually seem that scary amount and as done as part of overall final financing package might see a further ~25% dilution ultimately at ST2 but the construction risk is hugely placed on contractors (as pain gain contracts) They may also get a strategic partner. Given the market chunk they biting into could see a big player take a stake (another royalty or something perhaps) Anyway. That’s another share and not for this board. As it is my average was 18p and I held 2m at one point... hence holding over 1% of this for free. Now you know why I’m a little meh over small % drops. Long term is how I play.. In the time taken to type this it’s 29p!

DGR1980 - priceless! A quote I must at some point in my life get into a conversation. “Teabagging a tank full of piranhas would be a safer option”

And on that note two more 50ks bought by some hungry hippo. ?

Ha. Cheeky thread. You tease.... But yes. Exactly that. Say that on my other a lot when people moan on slow days / no news. 1 day closer to my holiday is all I’m thinking about at the moment!

Surely that would have a large impact on EOR plays - Previously deemed uneconomical wells could become viable for re-frak?

Good for Nitrogen sales to I'd imagine?

Noodle, when I have enough shares and request a seat in the Boardroom, they need room for my Dallas Themed accessories, I'm wearing me a Larry Hagman JR hat and some of Sue Ellens shoulder pads along with that bad boy Southfork Ranch drinks trolley, going nowhere without that..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKloBLFeYOs

Highlands stated they would be trimming their costs. With True as “Operator” at ED we don’t need our own staff in these permanent roles. It also shows more than likely the way forward with WD will also be not with us as “Operator” so read into that what you will... cough <free carry> cough. I would imagine the only staff to be retained at present would be geology / land (leasing going on) and management / advisory board. I believe people previously working at ED / with ED currently are not on our books either and being paid by True / the current operator.... makes sense right...

Nice to see it up in 70's again :-)

Can't get cracking in WD soon enough, hope we clocked up a few more acres and can see them creep up in the next RNS!

Well that was exciting wasn’t it. Can’t wait for my Caribbean holiday next week. I’ll be able to avoid these mornings and just wake up with half the trading day gone already!

No. Not in the slightest!

Then shouldn’t need to ask the questions?

It was plugged and abandoned as: A) pressure was to high with equipment they had. B) they were looking for oil / natural gas and not nitrogen. Clearly you are not bothering to research or read the information that’s out there and just here to pick holes in everything. Did you not see the original flow rate. Did you not see the RNS with the increased flow rate after. Have you not seen or bothered to look at Fadec’s doc with all the other plugged and abandoned high pressure non natural gas / oil wells in the area......

And answer for JJAL - exactly as Blue says. You are comparing drills which take $5m, 7-10 days to drill, 7 days to frak and 5 days to remove drill plugs out on, then flowback for a month before going into prod (but then have a truckable saleable item) We had that well running 3 weeks after leasing the land...... Thats why this won’t be another ED....