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No-one 'understands the science' because it is infinitely complex.
We have models to try to understand and explain things, that's all.
We generally start with simple models and refine them as we learn more.
Sometimes we have very different models to explain the same phenomena, looking at it from different angles - such as wave/particle duality.

Scinv, if you think you have a better model, please do your best to explain it.

Lol

Migs, let me present an alternative point of view with some good evidence.
Here are two big factors in the ongoing elevated excess deaths.

1) Emergency healthcare in the UK no longer functions effectively:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1562004612172873728?s=20&t=1m-DA5hLtKLG3ijrGleQ0Q

2) There is very strong evidence from large, high quality studies showing an elevated risk of heart attacks and strokes after having covid:
https://www.usmedicine.com/clinical-topics/covid-19/va-study-alarming-rise-in-cvd-complications-after-initial-covid-19-recovery/

- Heart attacks and strokes are by far the leading cause of death in the UK.
- Covid causes elevated risk of heart attacks and strokes.
- Very large numbers of people have had covid.
- Therefore, you would expect to see increased rates of heart attacks and strokes - and that's what you are seeing.

Vaccination is likely to reduce the severity of covid and less severe cases are likely to have better outcomes.
Questioning the narrative does not make you a fruit loop. Ignoring the evidence because you've already decided to blame vaccines would make you a fruit loop. But you're not a fruit loop.

If you charge people £10 for missing doctors appointments, MORE PEOPLE WILL MISS DOCTORS APPOINTMENTS MORE OFTEN. Christ. Silly people.

Depends, dunt it. GDP actually goes up when more folks go to the doctor.
Perhaps we need better metrics now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ANufwUPFm8

We're all human beings. Boris grew up watching his father beat his mother and his mother collapsing into psychosis. He was sent away to a school designed to train sociopaths for the purposes of managing an empire that no longer exists.
It's time to move on and it's a shame we have to learn it the hard way but it really isn't about blame. It's about making it better next time round.

Very best wishes to every single poor old human bean. It may be difficult but we do have an amazing capacity to adapt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siO6dkqidc4
*not an endorsement of Morrisey's collapse into hate

It's all the same **** dunk, like it or not.

Mani did not insinuate that and outside of a much more deadly variant I agree there will be no more lockdowns. That doesn't mean lockdowns were inappropriate prior to vaccines. Had we locked down when I first warned my mum we were going to have to lockdown, we'd have saved about 20,000 lives. Sumption et al are dangerous lunatics. I won't diagnose dementia but I would strongly argue that listening to certain elderly authority figures was disastrous. For the yanks, the constitution was written by slave owners in their early 20s. It was supposed to change with the times.

Wealth is absolutely not zero-sum. It is largely illusory and based on confidence in the future. Take away the confidence, the wealth evaporates. We have a significant problem with hereditary wealth. Those who actually create value leave their fortunes to their idiot offspring to be siphoned off by the 'wealth management' industry. See Trump, for example - his father was a ruthless psychopath who knew how to make money, which Donald promptly lost, hence being in hock to various nefarious financiers.

How kind of you Ghia. Would you say the same to the landlords of the 70% of pubs currently on course to go under in the next 6 months?

Do you remember when Boris promised the party he'd cut higher rate tax to get elected? I'm not sure the party does - possibly because a lot of them have died since then and half of the rest don't have the memory skills. Or the ability to change their minds since the late 70s.

Truss will now U-turn and borrow a hundred billion or more, condemning the young to spend their lives paying for the profound failures of the old to fix the roof while the sun was shining. As we already have been, given our total failure on productivity and the slide into rentier neo-feudalism. And assuming we stave off total collapse.

The free market for energy is over now. Capitalism did more to improve living standards across the world than any system ever invented, but we always have to push it too far, don't we? Just hardwired that way. I'm not sure opening up licences for energy that will take 10+ years to come on stream and cost far more than we can already do with solar and wind adds up, does it? But then perhaps we have a steel problem. They bin steeling too much :)

I can tell you from my experience of 70+ startups, no entrepreneur has ever been motivated to create value by a cut in corporation tax. It is another sop to the folks who own everything, that's all.

I am not quite as pessimistic as this but it's a better analysis than you'll ever read in the oligarch press: https://eand.co/this-winter-collapse-is-coming-to-britain-72ace84ab0b4

As Lewis said, it's not catastrophising, it's catastrophe. Denialism meets reality, and reality bites.

IMHO SNG is relatively well placed to weather the storm, assuming the system survives. Especially since we're only valued at slightly more than our cash. But anyone who thinks they can laugh at the proles from their ivory towers has got another think coming. Things are going to change. One does not simply walk into Mordor :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nyvxt1svxso

They're inviting applications to run the whole PT, not for drug candidates to apply for funding.

No, public funded - essentially open to tender.
Perhaps time for someone else to have a go as top banana.

I think some folks have suggested that giving people steroids to tamp down inflammation may not be helping those bacterial infections much. It has also been posited that giving everyone dexamethasone as soon as they got the sniffles may have been a mistake. I speculate that what we want is to keep the immune system nice and well regulated in the Goldilocks zone. Not too inflamed, not too chilled. Juuuuust right. I don't know but it sounds nice to me.

Oops, sorry. Top secret.

Is no-one going to post about Tweety McTweet-face and the Tweets?

No sir, I don't have you pinned at all.
That sounds very sensible to me, and I have appreciated a lot of your input.
It's a real shame things get so ugly.
Outside of our bubble here, I think these really are very difficult times for pretty much everyone.
The world has gone a bit nuts.
Best wishes.

I don't know. Soon, maybe?

My ideal outcome would be that the drug is really useful and saves lives and investors make a fair return.
Especially those who have put in huge amounts of research and tried to help the company and each other.

I have been concerned for about two years already :)

Anyway, these are sensible trading questions but I am really not much of a trader.
Incidentally I have no problem with traders except when they cheat, lie, steal etc.

The science is really pretty strong, IMHO. There is something good here.

GLA.

It would be fantastic to get on Strive but it is a multi-drug trial and we might not be the first candidate.
If not, presumably the trolls will attack here...

I am also hopeful there will be more than one option for further trials.
You never know, we might even pull our finger out in the UK, that would be lovely.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/08/covid-19-scan-aug-30-2022
It seems like BA.4.6 is taking over from BA.5 in the West, but possibly BA.2.75 is winning in the East.

I guess the real curveball would be something from outside Omicron.
Every time I think it can't get much more transmissible, it gets much more transmissible.
But surely there is a physical limit.

Let's all be friends. Life is hard.

https://www.terrapinn.com/conference/world-antiviral-congress/speaker-phillip-MONK.stm
This one has a published title so it must be a proper conference.
And that title is... drum roll....
"Inhaled IFN-ß (SNG001) for the treatment of COVID-19 and other severe viral lung infections"

It's a way off though - end of November.
Perhaps we'll have another wave by then.
BA 4.6? BA 2.75? BA2036 to Orlando? Who knows.
Whatever it is, it's almost certainly already out there spreading somewhere.

Or perhaps we'll be fighting each other in the streets for food, Mad Max style.

Forwards!

Thanks Ghia. That is interesting. Perhaps he hasn't written it yet. Doing his homework on the bus :)

I agree, it is useful work and always nice to see the boards' names crop up.

ERS seems to want up to 840 euro to attend online which is a bit steep for me, but as I recall they have been good at releasing talks here: https://www.youtube.com/user/EuropeanRespiratory/videos

Does anyone know if the AMR congress is likely to release anything publicly?