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If they all go to Iraq and start hitting non US assets, then we will have something out of control.

What if the Iranians take out some Iraqi oil assets ?

Second wave of rockets on their way just reported by Bloomberg.

This might go on all night.

Yes I agree KO.. but that need a few days to get things in the right places. Nuclear facilities on the weekend. IF Iraq can't defend US assets, then they will exit, leaving Iraq with a large problem neighbour. Iran using Iraq to export oil would mean Sanctions on Iraq too. That would mean Brent $90 plus, as there would be a shortage of heavy oil.

Oh dear, looks like short range cruise missiles fired from Iran.. doesn't bode well for Iran.

Brent $70 , .... Enq ? Try for 25p tomorrow as this conflict will last for months. ... long enough to get to 2H when Shale Tier 1 starts to struggle and Tier2 bites a bit more.

Wasn't just a few missiles , but 10s.. read perhaps 30.

Trump might say they are just letting off steam, but it looks a bit more than that. Any casualties would result in a US response.

Bloomberg just reported Iran officially said it attacked the US airbase in Iraq.

Guess it's a little War, without invasion.

They should have bid for Enquest . 30p /40p etc

Would have got so much more .

Might be an offload for a Cairn customer.. ( if it's a smaller capacity tanker)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-tycoon-harold-hamm-predicts-19-jump-in-us-oil-prices-within-six-months-regardless-of-what-happens-in-the-mideast-2020-01-06?siteid=rss&rss=1

Guess he saw the Mark interview .. inflection point coming

They built it Ron and the snag list was quite considerable.

I'd expect the US to take out Iran's nuclear processing capability within a week.. doesn't affect oil supply, but increases geopolitical risk that hasn't played much of a part when there has been a glut of oil .. Step 2: take out the Iranian oil refining capability and export routes and we are $80+ for several years.. Enquest would head to 60p , but most wouldn't celebrate we got there this way.

Approaching $70, but Iran will plan some sort of revenge ( as they have said already )..

So I would avoid hedging today, and wait for the response , given the US have told their citizens to leave. Apart from the risk of kidnappings, and murder../ ransoms.. the market will panic much more next week.. Brent $75.. and then layer on some hedging for 1H. I would expect $80 if they block the sea routes for a month or 2 until the US blow them out of the water.

GL.

Has the equity performed better since your purchase..?

I think with say 1,696m shares.. Terp of 33.4p is a good destination point . (market cap £566m)

The monthly chart shows a 4p/5p improvement.. a ruler extrapolation shows perhaps a 6p positive movement for the next 2 months heading to 29p by early April. Perhaps see Terps in May.. if Brent stays at this level for Q1. etc.

Assassinations, Shale oil producers decreasing capex spend.. all bode well to support Brent.. but Kraken being able to fill 3 tankers a month is the real gamechanger for earnings.

Hi Pelle
I would say the new stuff like Magnus replaces the old stuff that depletes and we need to spend $100m/$150m a year on fresh capex to stay as we are production wise, on top of the annual $50m maintenance capex. So Terps is a sensible point to negotiate from if asked to release 1%/2% to a third party . It could be more once Brent reaches $70.. near the 40p you mentioned the other day.. Yes I would add it in , if depletion from other assets wasn't so significant.

For the moment, we still have a lot of ground to catch up.. We can all see Kraken took too long to fix.. Even at the 2018 AGM, I was under the impression it would take a few more months to fix.. I left the meeting optimistic. At the meeting, I believe it was the Barclays guy who asked AB "how would you feel if Kraken took another year to fix".. AB replied "he would be very disappointed".. It would appear with hindsight that Barclays had better / more realistic info than Enquest were prepared to say.. Now we have the tankers proving it all works.. so I'd expect to recover to TERPS.. 33.3p range and the work Enquest have done to improve the NPV since acquisition should get us there..

There's a 300 share trade : could be code for need more shares but take the price down.

Also a 2 share trade. 1 means RNS logged in the system. 2 might mean code for 1 expected .

It's all b.s.. but so what. It has to mean something with a short trading day tomorrow.

Thing is Romaron, if I were an II, who had held before the RI and also paid up 21p for the RI, and was also told at the 2018 AGM to be patient for dividends, I wouldn't sell any now to a third party via an arrangement. I'd reply back via email that Terps is the minimum price, but advise them to buy in the open market at 18p all the way upto Terps to build a stake. Put your seat belt on here !

Something hunting for shares.. same sort of pattern before Xmas..

if you want to build a 1% stake of 16.94m shares, you need to pay up to encourage sellers.. if you want 5%, you have no chance of completing the stake unless you pay all the way upto Terps. (33.3p)

The Rump of 22.8m unwanted shares was placed at a discounted price below Terps of 28p.. so trying to build a 5% stake will be well well well north of this.

Lets get to 23.5p and review the volume it required to get there. I have a 30p target anyway.

They are not drilling till next year imv ,

ST probably just nothing , Enquest was going up anyway due to rapid debt reduction, lower interest payments and better profitability for the same amount of work.

They could have used "market sentiment" or "sector recovery", or "Brent pricing", but chose "NS deal". A bit odd unless the comment came from one the Senior ST team e.g. Danny Fortson, and there's more to follow next week. The turnover we saw on a quiet holiday trading day would indicate "something" . It was at 20.54p at 8.15am when I made my first purchase of the day, so there must be a specific reason for the increase, that was known the previous week by a select few who moved it out of the 18p range.

Business and Money, page 8. Look in the Week in the markets section. Very small , u need your magnifying glasses to see it. In the green risers section.