Member Info for hitman1a

I’m sure I understand how good this business is without relying on higher annual average production for 2020. Driving down debt and capex costs , saving interest and boosting net profitability and strengthening the balance sheet, GL

I'd be delighted to see 70K average in 2020 E121.. but i'd be equally happy to see Enquest match 2019 production.

Kraken premium is a real bonus as confirmed by Cairn this morning.. They said the new Kraken wells would be connected at somepoint in 2H 2020. AB said Thistle was expected back in Q2 , so it's hard to see the yearly average going up from today's production rate.... what ever that is.. when you take out Alma and include natural declines..

Interesting Cairn came in at 23k for 2019; (guidance range of 21k-23k) yet are forecasting 19k to 23k for 2020 , slightly lower.. even with Catcher and Kraken.. so why are we underestimating our natural declines.. ?

I have no doubt the 2020 FCF will be substantial which will drive the SP higher..

We have been over this many times.. IR already confirmed to a poster that 2020 production would be slightly less than 2019.. Heather and Thistle out of action. and natural declines..

Still holding.. not sold . been accumulating for almost 5 years.. Ps : Barclays and JP Morgan also have a 40p price target at the moment..

Perhaps pencil in 65k average production for 2020 (slightly less than 2019) I thought the company had already indicated it might be slightly less.

Net debt near $1.1b year ended 31 Dec 2020 is a good enough target imv, with Kraken premium helping it get there.

Sp: ? above 40p

Mike and Frank think this is a collectable, .....bit like old Skoda’s Estelles that are now rising in value .

Chum Lee spoke to Rick and thinks it’s best to call in an expert , ....if you can hang around for a bit , we will get a better idea on what we have . The only other alternative is to put it into auction later on in the year . GL

Feels like I’m in a pawn shop in Vegas and Chum Lee is offering me 28.80p for something I know he will sell for much higher at some point in the future . GL

To get better Internet so the crew can watch the football.

Find me another company like Enquest for £500m market cap..

Morning HmHn,

Happy to collect any Trophys you can send me.. I don't include cash coming into the business that I have to pay someone else.. I'm just thinking about the stuff I can save and leave in the bank or use as a mattress.. That saves me spending money at Dreams. As a shareholder that's important to me..

80p sounds nice, .. post RCF repayment in 2021 with the Banks agreed to rollover the Bond into a $1b loan facility..

Plenty of FCF .. more like Mountains of it.. from mid 2021 if Brent behaves.. Bound to be noticeable steps in SP improvement as the balance sheet improves greater than the market expects.. 40p target is still very good for now.

Cairn will be ramping the eventual success of Kraken to all and sundry at their operations update on Tuesday 21 Jan. We know how they like to provide extra detail to analysts , and we know some prefer to ask them questions that Enquest prefer not to answer. Looking out for update on drilling Western Flank as well as Kraken premium. Once the analysts have done the sums, this will gap up into the 30p + range.

Hi E121. yes i'm just watching it..

Had a nightmare a couple of days ago.. Dreamt I de-risked and sold my holdings and split into 10 different companies.. Saw some really bad returns on a few which I found by doing "research" on the LSE website because they were popular chat rooms.. Had that feeling of regret of selling and watching Enquest take off and being left behind.. After a few minutes I remembered my holdings were intact.. what a relief .. averaging down for almost 5 years …. I can live with a few months of sideways travel at this level..

Ps: Just won a £25 premium bond.. (Sister did too)

Brent at $65.03.. but not surprised we fell off the 29p perch, as £500m market cap is a good resting point..
Lay down another 3 to 6 mths of earnings and strengthen the balance sheet to get to 40p. If AB does give an interview at Davos, lets hope he gets asked the right questions.

Anyone who watched the Uber CEO interview on Bloomberg explain why they keep on investing and keep burning cash.. He simply replied they had several markets to develop and a couple of years down the line, they would stop, flip the switch and focus on returns.. Well I think the switch has been flipped for Enquest and AB can tell us a bit more about shareholder returns in the interviews from now on.

I don't think many people would invest in a company that had accumulated $3b in tax losses since incorporation, but given the NAV is still positive and the company expects to utilise these losses over the next 5 years, it sort of now becomes very attractive to invest in for new shareholders.

I would prefer Enquest to pencil in a dividend in March 2020 to underpin the shareprice at a higher level. Payable at somepoint in 2021 if so. Then i wouldn't need to sell the shares and incur cgt inorder to chase a dividend yield elsewhere for those shares not in an ISA.
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US fund manager on Bloomberg said US overall total capex cut for 2020 was between 6% to 10% . Varies from company to company, but prevents a collapse in prices. Add another $5 to WTI when this takes effect. Accordingly I see no need for Enquest to hedge unless required to do so by lenders.

I'd like to see 30p tomorrow . ... it's so nice to see the Brokers at 40p. If they mark it up at 40p soon, it will get sold into, but if they take longer to do so, ie: at somepoint in Q2, it may end up going even higher as Brent would be nearer $70 by then.

I heard he went to University at 16 yrs

What if Enquest/Bumi have not only fixed the FPSO to cope with larger volumes, but have also improved the Recovery factor (RF) of the field. Not only would Cairn be adding back the reserves, but they would also be adding extra reserves. Wouldn't that be a nice surprise.

Add in extra drilling to maintain plateau, and the extra $ premium on top of Brent and you easily get 40p. GL.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-01-14/peak-permian-oil-output-is-closer-than-you-think-investor-says

I feel like it could happen tomorrow.. but by end of week looks pencilled in having watched the recovery.. It only goes down to get some cheap shares and then moves up to continue to accumulation process.

Despite 1.696b shares, there really aren't that many about to build a meaningful stake without boosting the SP a few pence each time they add a little more. Even when AB wanted shares the SP would move a little but this is re-rate , so costs a lot more.

GL.

All the boxes are ticked , Brent is fine ,Brokers on board , Tankers being filled

Trade deal as well , yet oilers are down today. ? 30p looks unlikely this week. I guess give it another 4 to 6 weeks like Zak said. Perhaps after Ops update.

I was expecting some longs to exit anyway. Saw quite a bit of analysis on Bloomberg a couple of days ago so not surprised by the price.

Everyone around the world has now seen the Mark Gordon interviews.. Various interviews/ statements talk about the expected "inflection point " in 2020.. Funds investing now for medium term.. If 60% of Dec 2019 shale production is based on 2018 drills, then add in 10 % capex reduction and slower/less productive DUCs utilisation, we should see US shale production plateau very quickly. Maybe it has already..