Member Info for hitman1a

Expecting Brent back to $55 pre Opec Meeting, $58 by Friday. Some sort of central bank conference call in Paris tomorrow should help sentiment, .. Sp should get back to 23p/24p this week if Opec release enough detail for people to believe $65 is the target in 2H . I'm still thinking US production will remain flat in 1H 2020 due to lower cashflow which helps support prices later in the year once the data is released.

Another read
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/coronavirus-to-delay-most-of-2020s-fpso-deliveries-and-postpone-30-billion-of-ep-investments/

Thanks E121. Looks like Shale is adjusting slowly in the right direction, Bloomberg also just reported that the credit markets for shale oil companies was virtually shut . Can you add any further details. If true, then we might have just seen US production reach the inflection point. How can they still be predicting US production growth in 2020?

Good point E121.. re market cap. that's why I'm confident our share price will go up once the accounts are released. We are worth more than £350m, especially since all the projects are now completed. We deserve a proper positive re-rate. ok not 40p yet , but 30p was my target pre Corona virus only just last week.. just need Opec+ to help push Brent back to $55 and Enq to 25p. Let US shale drop the rig count 10%/15% over the next 6 mths to support/push the price up further.. but then it's much higher given the decent DUCs and Tier 1 are much harder to find..

I would just give all the serious cases of Corana virus :Remdesivir.. It's about 8,100 people worldwide.. It's already an approved drug, and we should be close to seeing some data from the US trials.. it either works well or very well imv. If economic activity is subdued for 2 mths, then we will have to accept it.. Eta on hand gel is 4 weeks.. Eta on surgical masks is 8 weeks.

Carwow have suggested a great alternative to the Tiguan.... the Dacia Duster.. ?.

Fair points..

Larger than normal UT trade:

16:35:18
20.00
1,368,205
273,641.00
UT

Brent loosing $2 a day isn't what any of us want.. but it does speed up the decision making process in the US: ie: cancel all new drilling projects because the FCF from next months DD isn't there to fund it..

Now 20.86p

Don't forget to pay the lady..

Also bought 50,000 at 20.45p ( 2 batch of 25k)

If the 20p range isn't cheap enough what is.. At the end the day the whole market is down.. Can't object to people selling and getting out of the oil sector and rotating into another for the eventual upside.. but we have Opec and our accounts within the next 4 weeks as positive drivers..

Target 25p . within 4 weeks..

I'm expecting the balance sheet net improvement for y/e 31 Dec 2019 in 4 weeks time to be similar to the current market cap.. that's because of deleveraging.

FCF at $50 isn't there to prepay the 2021 RCF, We are already committed to drilling the Western Flank financed by Q1 hedging. The Enquest business model allows for $250m annual capex ($50m maintenance), so you could always cut 2021 capex and continue debt repayments in 2021 , just with a 10% smaller production level.. 60k in 2021 would still be fine. But the 2021 RCF debt would become an issue. We would struggle to pay $400m, so we really do need Brent back to $60 this year and at least half of the 2021 prepaid in the 2020 calendar year.. Unless of course they sell 20% of Kraken for a small fortune given the quality of the product.. Beefing up the balance sheet no matter what..

struggling . intermittent server issues . very slow.

Odd to sell given Opec meeting next week, ... perhaps they can steer Brent back to $55 over the next 4 weeks which puts Enquest near 23p/24p. In 4 weeks we also have the annual accounts.. the balance sheet should improve by a decent percentage.

Thanks for the heads up. I think I might buy some Microsoft if the US market continues to dive over the next 4 to 8 weeks. Target 135. The thing about oil is that SAUDI are already saying they are reducing loadings in March. Other Chinese suppliers will have to follow. E.g. Iran .

Opec meeting next week will improve the oil price even though demand is less over next 8 weeks. That's good for oil stocks like Enquest , even though stocks like Microsoft and Tesla might continue to drop over the next 8 weeks.

Target 25p within 4 weeks.

We still have the Trump speech tonight with his blue sky thinking. 23.00hrs GMT

Maybe he can do something positive for Trade with China or something domestic to protect oil jobs like restrict/ cap fracking permits for 2020 until demand picks up.

Even with Q1 hedging... anything about 21p tomorrow would be fine..

Guess we will see sub 20p at this rate. (pre OPEC meeting)

WTi weaker after the close.. thought it would stabilise at $50, but it's approaching $49.22

In many ways the market doesn't think Opec+ are able to take any meaningful action to support the price.. Net long positions might as well keep selling , but we have now dropped the price to US Shale break even or slightly below.. This should slow down production growth until such time demand picks up again in 2H.

Guessing more shares will be available tomorrow in the 21p range, unless China releases much lower death numbers tonight.

I'd like to see the China daily death rate fall to single figures and then zero within 2 weeks.

Take out the age factor , and it appears to be a lottery as to whether someone had mild (82%) or serious case.

Given the age range of 0 to 9 yrs has the best survival stats,, perhaps there is an ingredient in Aptamil or Cow&Gate Milk Powder that gives protection. Breast milk might be worth a try too.

I can't believe AB would leave any 21p range shares on the table , so the volatility today from 21p to 21.85p, and then down again to 21.30 and back up again , would imv indicate an RNS is on the way..

Just for the Charity mind you..

Bought another 25,000 batch at 21.58

And another 100,000 batch . quoted 21.70 but got them at 21.50 ish. via Barclays price improver.

Great time to organise a Share buy back to fix the SP.
max $50m /year .. albeit I have been told many times it's not possible without Bank consent and other caveats..

That's what I would do with the Q1 2020 earnings. .. rather than repaying the 2021 RCF early.
Quick fix and more of the same next year.. best $100m you'll ever spend.

Hi Romaron

I've been buying extra all week so the 21p range helps out average the ones bought in the 26p/25p/23p range.
Not sure why I buy extra on the way down.. I should be selling, …. but we are very close to the OPEC+ meeting..

As Kraken is now fixed and we are ahead of the debt repayment plan.. I see the SP climbing as the Accounts are released, with regular Ops updates and the AGM to look forward to. I can only see US shale drilling budgets for Q3 and Q4 vanishing which brings forward the inflection point Mark Gordon spoke about.. peak US production and then a decline.