Member Info for hitman1a

They have done a Trump style manoveour , said and indicated something and done the complete opposite . Revenge or payback for when Trump said he was imposing sanctions on Iran, told Saudi to increase production and then changed his mind overnight and collapsed the price. MBS operated the same strategy, ....... and it would have been ok if Corona hadn't spread, as prices would still have been higher, but now it looks like they have shot themselves in the foot. Prices are too low, even for them. Imagine having no customers for Saudi oil in May and June? .The refiners will not want it if the extended lock down lasts for 60 days like China.

At least the WHO is now conducting the drugs trials.

It's possible Saudi have snookered themselves.

If everyone flattens the curve and 21 days proves effective, then Brent at $50 will return much earlier than all the headlines suggest. A vaccine would help in 18mths time, but I'm surprised they haven't got a combination of drugs yet that works to save lives whilst on the ventilator. The lock down period of 21 days is likely to be extended to 60 days imv. We should at the latest be back at Brent $50 when the vaccine arrives, so the immediate problem is how Opec countries can fund corona relief and the normal state budgets which are set for 2020 in the $55 range. Saudi won't have any customers for May production, so the headlines will change next month again. I assume it already knows it will have to back track, but needs to save face. Hence why they are saying nothing.

Russia needs to cut more than 300k, say 1m , but instead says lets add new members so it doesn't have to cut any more itself.

Saudi can't be bothered with them. they couldn't even agree to cut 300k. but the deal would have added $7 to today's price.. ie near $32 which is our breakeven point for FCF 2020.

We need to drop another 300 rigs over the next month.

Also need the frac crews to stop working, otherwise the DUCs just keep on producing more.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil-saudi/saudi-says-no-talks-with-russia-over-more-opec-countries-or-joint-pact-idUKKBN21E222?il=0

I was right.. Saudi haven't had any discussions.. Russia just trying it on. .

Same old Russia.. it never says what it's prepared to cut.. if they are thinking 300k which they refused to do before, there is no point having a OPEC+ extra meeting. Saudi want them to cut say 10%. eg 1m and then Saudi will roll back the extra 2m and maybe even cut another 2m. At the moment, Russia can send May production to storage or cut production just everyone else.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN21E13F

What a fantastic close at 277p. almost a take-off similar to LGen yesterday.. just 24 hours behind..

GL.

i'm assuming Airlines will carry passenger again in late June.. so we wont see that demand return in Q2

That leaves Brent in the low $30s once the 21 days period is over and countries start using oil again, but that is subject to control over the virus.

Approaching 263p.. but I think I saw slightly higher yesterday.. but at least it's now finally above 260p

Nice dividend.. is real money.. SP will go up with the general market FTSE etc..

Pretty sure the claimant will be referred back to the employer for 80% cover if not able to work for more than 2 weeks due to CV. First 2 weeks aren't covered anyway.. plus 80% make a recovery in 2 weeks.. We really are only looking at the most badly affected ie: In hospital . Goldman have changed their year end SP target 3 times in the last month. With home testing kits.. their original 285p target looks more realistic.

Aviva dividend yield is very good compared to bank. Solid business.. so should trade higher.. just that the favorites like LGen always go up first.. Target Av. £3.00 over next month.. Dow is now over 22,000 so assumes a lot of the US will be back at work by 12 April.. (+1 week imv) and some states wont fully shut down.. Most will want to go back to work once the home test kits are available In the meantime.. 21 days stay at home seems right.

Only bought in recently on both Av and LGen. LGen much better performer, but I intend to let both run

Av. will get dragged up with the sector.. Target 260p EOD (now 257p) LGen might as well go to 220p tomorrow. ( 203p)

Alright Romaron.. I'm still concerned about the airlines. I do believe aircon spreads the CV about, as it would do in any environment. I wouldn't travel on them for quite some time, unless I've already got the antibodies or been given the vaccine. A home test is the next stage.

Developing a test to carry out home is the next step. If they can get a reliable one approved within the 3 week period, then those that have had it can go back to work after 7 days. They already would have developed antibodies as per what I have just watched on Sky. There has been a study suggesting 60% of population already have been exposed to it. But I doubt it.

I wouldn't make any rash decisions to shut Magnus, as the tests could be available within the next week. Any worker tested positive for CV would only be allowed to get on the rig 7/14 days after carrying out a test. Anyone tested negative should be ok to travel straightaway. Everyone on board already can be tested too.

I agree, fantastic performance into the close.. Over £2 tomorrow if the Dow behaves and lifts the FTSE.. massive stimulus/aid packages for many.. Aviva didn't perform as well, but I expected that as LGen was always considered a better bet. Investors were always going to top up on LGen first..

Only issue is I believe Trump is too optimistic about returning to work on April 12. He might have just thought, survival of the fittest and will ignore flattening the CV curve. He will just throw more money and equipment at the hospitals instead.

https://www.arabianbusiness.com/energy/443716-us-calls-on-saudi-to-reassure-oil-financial-markets

We need $54 to cover everything long term.. so $27 looks like we have going concerns issues again.

Short term looks fine if we get above $32 next week post G20 tomorrow.

no big deal. already had the recent update.