Member Info for hitman1a

Saudi now saying possible 15m cut , subject TO agreement.

So long as the agreement lasts to end of year, ie past the peak of the CV curve, we are good for $50 in Q4 IMV. BUT Airlines are still not flying , so that is the main weak point.

Saudi calling for a urgent Opec meeting, this is very big news, but I guess it still requires agreement from everyone els, including Russia.

US commissioners pushing for April 14 to sound out producers, so no immediate response from Texas. Storage issue, as not enough storage anywhere, but taking out 10m extends time to fill, which gives time for economy and demand to return, say over 4 months.

TRUMP tweet, cut of 10m or more ... If it happens,

Q1 ($55), Q2 ($30) , Q3 ($30) , Q4($40): $155/4 = $38.75

I suspect we will do slightly better, but no ability to invest in new capex or debt repayment.. Significant cash $268m in the bank at the moment. If we get Q3 and Q4 at $10 higher.. then we should add $110m to cash reserves.. which puts us near $378m at 31.12.2020, which is a good position to be in for 2021 at Brent at $50 and all costs at $35.

It's hard to see when demand will pick up.. but Q3 looks more realistic . Indian refiners claiming force majeure, so Saudi oil is going back home, unless they find an alternative. Everyone is judged by their actions.

With Trump now on the case , we should move back in the $30 WTI range next month, Meeting with US exec on Friday., I’d prefer to implement Tariffs and get to $50 straightaway, but with no US exports so OPEC + are guaranteed their markets won’t be affected post CV. Think that’s fair for all .

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/white-house-mulls-tariffs-saudi-crude-aid-shale-oil-wsj-200401182519313.html

A Reuters survey of 40 analysts forecast Brent would average $38.76 a barrel in 2020, 36% lower than the $60.63 forecast in a February survey.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8171059/Five-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-treated-former-patients-blood-China.html

like the bit about a Japanese company making blood plasma in tablet form with the relevant antibodies.. fantastic..

Speculating Russia will agree to 300k cut overnight to get new OPEC+ deal for Q2.. on condition USA joins in June for the Q3 deal to last till year end.. but only adds a few bucks given CV demand destruction.. but at least the roadmap is there for recovery in oil prices and equity.. The glut won't build up as much as anticipated. Target 10p this week.

she explained it well, but she reads everything like us, and is rather exposed to being brainwashed by other media outlets just like me.

Yeah, time to invest in oil stocks is when the airlines are given the ok to fly again internationally.

Problem is I can't see how anyone could be allowed on a plane without being vaccinated, or being in quarantine for 14 days before getting on the plane.. Then there is another 14 days in the destination country.. I'm sure the aircon/ventilation system spreads it about even more.

I give it 2 months for the US to start driving again properly.. monitor and then restart domestic flights.. 30 days isn't enough having watched the NY Governor discuss his plans preparing for the peak.. Opec ++ agreement in June gives us a better business model going forward if all join and i believe the Saudi King will play a role. Saudi also need to see the revenue loss implications.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/saudi-king-offers-pay-coronavirus-patients-treatment-200330144819569.html

Think MBS has been told by the King to keep a low profile.. The reputation of Saudi is in tatters worldwide imv. They know the low oil prices will affect other OPEC countries very badly.. via hunger etc and yet they chase market share for a commodity the world doesn't need any extra for.. All this damage done by a country with just 34m people. How they can justify selling assets to finance the hole left in the budgets via lower oil prices is beyond me.. The problem is MBS.. the King hasn't chosen wisely.

Pioneer and Parsley have asked the Texas regulator for an emergency meeting to enforce cut backs in Texas. Good news from 2 Shale players ....looking for 20% cuts on Texas production.

US has at least 2 mths of lockdown just like us imv. Turn off the wells as pipes and storage will fill up within a week. The refiners don't want it. If the US Government doesn't think its urgent to act now via tariffs, then its already made the decision to let the market sort itself out via shutting wells and picking up the pieces once demand picks up post CV19.

Saudi and Russia will have to halve production, as places like India will move from 21 day lockdown to 60 day lockdown too.

Did I read SVT could store Kraken production for 15 tankers. so if 14/days per load, that's 7 months of production ?. we can use our existing cash reserves in the interim and sell the loads later in 2H/Q4 for much higher prices.

Enquest will have to cut all salaries by 25% and furlough as much as possible for next 2 months and claim accordingly.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed oil markets and the spread of the coronavirus in a phone call on Monday, the Kremlin said.
The presidents agreed for Russian and U.S. energy ministers to hold consultations on global oil markets. They also agreed to continue their dialogue at a personal level, the Kremlin said in a readout of the call.

Thanks Mav, good interview.. now the $2T package is done.. Trump can help fix the US oil industry.

I prefer the fixed price structure with tariffs for those undercutting.. What price though. $50 or $60.. Think Trump has 30 days to sort it, as he intends to get USA back to work by April 30.. He needs to make a quick decision.. as delays cause more damage.. US shale was declining anyway, so WTI $55/$60 seems about right to protect bankers interests. Goldman saying we might see $55 in 2021 anyway, but that's a long time to wait.. Saudi blaming Russia is pointless. Trump might as well just go straight to tariffs.

Landlocked oil as per GS will have to be shut in first as pipeline capacity disappears.. decisions are made based on logistics rather than price. I also like that some US shale operators have to prove they have a customer now before they send more down the pipe.. If Trump can add US to OPEC+ with a quota system post CV19.. then that bodes well for Brent $55+ going forward with little risk of price downside.. ie price stability.. but I think this negotiation would take 3 mths normally and we need an agreement this week to lift the price back into the $30+ range.

Enquest could manage with $55 (Q1), $26(Q2&Q3) and $44(Q4) to average $38 for year.. keeps our cash intact so long as production remains stable.. surely a US deal with Texas production quotas would help them out more than a cheque for $1,200.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/29/coronavirus-survivors-blood-plasma-could-be-used-to-fight-infection

NHS Blood and Transplant has already begun work to identify potential donors, a spokesperson said.

“Plasma from patients who have recovered from Covid-19 will contain antibodies that their immune systems have produced in fighting the virus. That plasma can be transfused to very poorly patients whose own immune systems are struggling to develop their own antibodies. The plasma transfusion is therefore intended to provide the poorly patient with antibodies from a recovered patient to help their body fight the Covid-19 virus.” seems like a very good plan..as data from a couple of days ago indicated 50% of UK people on a ventilator still don't make it..

The Primary Vision US Frac Spread Count is 255 for the week ending March 27th, 2020. @PrimaryVision #frac It was 280 the previous week . We should see much lower numbers by end of April as well as much lower rigs . Perhaps zero if we get 3 months of lock down if pipeline carriers are already telling producers to cut back . Texas commissioner should act and instruct all to produce 50% until further notice. Act now . All drilling and frac needs to stop now due to CV risk anyway .

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pipelines-ask-u-oil-drillers-174638410.html