Member Info for hitman1a

Vix index is at 65.. keep monitoring.. it that lowers today then we could see markets rally a bit more into the close.

Plenty of talk about a vaccine and Venezuela acting as a broker to get a OPEC+ deal done.. We all need it.. including Saudi and UAE..

share price always goes down when they talk.. even the BOD know that

GL.

only £5k, but it boosted my existing portfolio valuation from 10.60p to 10.80p as well.

GL

They will probably just wait till accounts are released to let us know they don’t have anything significant , but by that time Brent might be nearer $45 anyway. there is probably not much to save Capex this year other than defer Magnus and PM8 drills and any other decommissioning work like Enquest Producer.

Thought it was Italian stocks only ?

Perhaps 12p given slight improvement in Breast prices and shortage of Surgeons.

I though the same . Always regarded the Saudi $83 break even as a safety net and Shale $50 as the minimum, rising as they went past the inflection point. Haven't really changed my mind... but now it looks like big oil in the rest of the world and Shale will cut to make room for extra 2m bopd Saudi oil. This will raise the price over 3 to 6 mths, as per Russia's comments. They are just speeding up the process, because we were almost there anyway. Going forward to next year when demand picks up, if Saudi are already pumping to max, it's everyone else that gets back the 2m bopd extra sales.

Earliest natural recovery in Oil price is May once production around the world shows signs of decline , esp Shale , no rush to buy , unless Saudi and Russia do a u turn beforehand, 18 March JMC meeting might be a pivotal point for oil prices . Common sense would be to reduce oil production , so long as Shale does as well.

Iran is the 5th Avenger

China let's out Corona on everyone including US due to trade war
Saudi produces a oil price war, and collapses Shale
Russia interferes with US elections
N Korea fires off more missiles
Iran carries on bombing US in Iraq

5 Avengers beats 1 Trump out of office due to US stock market collapse based on bad sentiment.

Everything is designed to destroy American wealth into the elections to get Trump out.

Everyone is tired of him putting America first.. Maybe rocket man isn't the 4th Avenger.. but he did fire off one missile the other day.. I think there will more to follow to show the world Trump has lost his influence over them.

Hi E121. Goldman are negative on oil for another 6 mths. ie into the US election... but's its an easy fix to normalise if the JTC on March 18 even agrees just to extend the current deal. Corona effects will be huge. but the best route to success to cap Shale production isn't Saudi and Russia flooding the market, but a change in US policy/President.. ie Fracking restrictions, flaring restrictions, water-table and environmental factors that would reduce production in the right way..

If the DOW go under 20k or lower.. Trump will lose a lot of votes and China will also not proceed with Phase 1.. It's almost as if Russia, China and Saudi want Trump out.. He might have met his match.. It's a bit like the Avengers.. One alone isn't enough, a team working together has a fantastic chance of success.. who's the 4th Avenger.. rocket man from N. Korea

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-russia-exclusive-idUSKBN20Y2TJ
Thinks market will self adjust to push prices back to $45/$55 fairly quickly.. ie: doing nothing is the best action.

In the short term, that will anger the US funds and drag prices lower imv as they are taking away US jobs.. so more pressure on prices. Dow down 1400pts so oil is selling off again..

$55 is ok, and still puts a lid on large capex spend causing a super cycle in 2 years..

Harold Hamm from Continental was just on Bloomberg. Said he thought Saudi dumping extra oil on the market was illegal. Said there were anti dumping laws to prevent this and so has asked the White House for help. He looked exhausted, but still didn't believe US shale had too much debt with normal pricing. Sort of ignored the negative cashflow question. Ignored the questions about low SP and capital loss. Ignored any questions on lowering rig numbers. Deluded. Just expects free cheap money so the Shale ponzi scheme can continue in a higher priced oil environment.

No doubt the White House will ban Saudi oil reaching US shores via some anti dumping tweet, protecting US producers. I'm thing WTI might trade above Brent if Saudi keeps dumping extra supplies with no place to go.

It's a pandemic now Romaron..

It's going to be difficult passing the salt at the dinner table tonight sitting 1m away from everyone..

Latex gloves now getting hot demand.. ( all sizes)
Demand for small travel bottles rising as people are making their own sanitisers.
Demand for Digital Thermometers still rising now it's an official Pandemic.

Demand for Oil: still very low.. only 100m bopd.

You never know Pelle.. If memory serves me right.. did AB not mention in his Davos interview he was preparing the balance sheet for lower oil prices.. ?

The interviewer was trying to ask him in times of low interest rates why he was not taking on more debt and investing.

Premier had a lot of shareholder wealth tied up in future unstarted projects. None of those can happen in this environment. Enquest doesn't really have anything apart from easy cheap drills for the next few years. We had already entered the deleveraging process so I expect that to continue in late Q3. Worldwide Natural declines of 7% to 10% exceed replacement from Q3 too if everyone is in capex only mode so a recovery in Brent by Q4 looks likely, even with Saudi extra output.

Should know more by next weekend. ( post 18th March)

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the country continues a dialogue with OPEC on Wednesday.
The minister added that Russia will send its representative to the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) panel of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna on March 18. Novak said that the current oil market is unstable due to the coronavirus outbreak.
Following the breakdown of talks on Friday between OPEC members and Russia on securing a further output cut of 1.5 million barrels per day, lines have been drawn in an oil market price war.
According to sources, Russian oil firms and Novak are due to meet today to discuss future cooperation with OPEC. Russian energy firms Rosneft and LUKOIL were trading down on the Russian stock exchange on Tuesday.

Yes, I agree. Another OZ/Murcuria loan in Q4 2021 to pay any balance of the remaining Oct 2021 RCF. I'd like to see that at less than $100m, but by that time the super cycle should have started. Imagine how many FPSO are going to get delayed in China.. Order books wiped out until it does.

Even with hedging, we are still looking at a large reduction in worldwide ability to drill new wells.. The Goldman Energy man gave the US game away.. Low oil prices didn't matter.. so long as the US shale assets could be sold to the new owners and the sale price covered the existing loan.. there was no loss.. He thought US energy independence was still on track so the likes of them and J P Morgan were fine. But we know low oil prices are negative for the economy so it confirmed indirectly to me that the US banks have been prepared to lend any amounts to Shale even if it's unprofitable due to the White House energy policy.

The White House might come out with some measure to help the oil industry, but it's far easier to lift the price with lower rigs and reduced output. If it's ok for Trump to call Saudi and tell them to bring on supply because the price is too high, then it's also ok for him to ring JP Morgan and Goldman and tell them to reduce credit lines to restrict new drilling and bring the price back up. That also explains why some large Shale operators have already come out with reduced capex plan.

Trump is a good business person and knows what to do.. business is business. too low oil prices are bad for the overall US economy.