Member Info for hitman1a

Nope , just kidding massive cuts by OPEC + , upto 2.1m. Brent should get to $65/$70 range very soon .

Pmo up as well so could just be the market.

Plus NH just bought in which is a bit of a coincidence

Reckon AB got wind of it and is buying as much as he can to save it from being taken from underneath him ,

I want a hostile takeover , Delek

This must be an II increasing a position ,

That's what I don't understand.. They said the extra from Kraken and Scolty would help alleviate the lost production from Heather and Thistle.. yet it should exceed it.. with Kraken running 3 tankers a month.

Perhaps the gush effect only lasts 6 weeks, but it should still produce 4k plus. Anyway minor points.

RBC at 24p was a good post today... Barclays are always higher so I guess 27p, heading to Squif's 29p by April if the ratios stay the same.

Many thanks E121. Would you agree they may have 2H numbers equally as bad?

https://stockdailydish.com/fracking-cracking-oil-price-correction-triggers-us-shale-meltdown/

We know the deleveraging rate is $30m/mth for last 2 months of 2019.. If they can increase this to average $35m/mth over the next 36 mths, they should by Jan 2023 only have $240m left. Allowing for interest savings along the way, it could be less than $100m. At the end of the day, they expect to have permanent loans of $1b , so what happens to the cash being accumulated? If the FCF is $50m/mth, this still gives the company $180m for annual capex to continue growing. I'd like to be net debt zero in 36 mths. To me it looks like a very large purchase is on the cards at somepoint, all bundled in with a refinancing deal. The Npv would have to be $3b plus, which bodes well for equity valued at £300m at the moment.

And it didn’t move the needle ,

Held down to fill a large order , I assume there will be more , but don’t want to make an ASS out of U or ME , We should never assume.

1 share sold means RNS in the system ?

This extra Malaysian license is interesting : speculating how much production the existing undeveloped discoveries can produce and for how much cost.. with infrastructure already in place.. How about 10k bopd? With 80k now and repairs adding 7k, and new Magnus (3K)and Kraken Western Flank (8k).. how about 100k bopd on a good day in 2021. ? (yearly average 90k/day in 2021).. sounds reasonable to me. With Shale production declining by 2021 and Brent rising.. it looks prudent to invest more now in short payback wells for the eventual upside..

With 60% of existing Shale production being produced from 2018 and newer wells.. it's going to be a struggle to increase production once the best DUCs have been utilised. OPEC needs to hold the line for another 18mths.. and all the members will be happier with higher prices to support their budgets.

Hi Pelle

I had $150m in mind (including the $50m annual maintenance bill), but got a feeling with the new Malaysian license to add another $20m and another $30m for padding (Q4 2019 invoices).. I don't mind how much money they spend with 12 mth payback periods. More the better. So long as they don't do another FPSO. Are they able to maintain deleveraging at $30m /mth in 1H 2020.. and then move to $50m in the 2H 2020.. probably yes, but the market probably isn't expecting it.. In a way are Enquest moulding the market to suggest we went through a $20m/mth phase and have now moved to a $30m/mth phase.. So long as they are near $1b by end of 2020, we should all be very pleased... but we speculate what might happen based on estimates/ experience/ recent data. The stock market values EnQuest on investor returns and it still looks like a long wait.. I assume the En in EnQuest stands for energy , Quest stands for the lengthy time shareholders may have to wait for returns. ie not the time it takes to be in a position to make distributions, but the time to actual payment.. mid 2022. I know you disagree, but I was at the 2018 AGM and the question was asked, and the reply was in the medium term.. 2018 to 2022 is say 4 years which fits into the definition of "medium term" imv. but surely the SP has to start rising at somepoint..

I think analysts prefer to look at the rate of debt reduction. Ok, the RNS indicates moving below $1.5b by end of year, so that's $30m/mth... not really enough.

With the RCF in 2020, only $110m, they sort have freedom to spend whatever they want on Capex. I'd pencil in $200m for 2020. Focusing on short payback drills to keep them busy every year makes good business sense. I'd give them a little room to spend a bit more if needed.

The net debt reduction for the 4 mths ended 31 October 2019 wasn't enough for a SP re-rate.

Reduced from $1638m to $1561m : $77m, $19.25m /mth. Net debt reduced for year to date $213m, so average of $21.3m/mth. I guess some of us are thinking with Kraken now performing, we should be deleveraging $50m/mth from now. Earliest sign of evidence might come in early Feb2020 ops guidance, but we are moving into a heavy capex period again, albeit with short payback periods.

We won't see any positive broker updates until the picture changes imv. A few more months to keep adding at these levels , but rapid deleveraging more visible 2H/Q4 2020 with everything new and old online.

Fuel increase in Iran, unrest in Iraq as well . Both look like they might implode.

Just saw it on CNN... don't think its fake news.

Hi MO

I think the frequency of Kraken tankers now is where you wanted it to be when you were here full time.. This bodes well now for others to take another look at Enquest as well. Can't be a fluke to have 3 tankers in a month. A lot of work must have gone in to get it to this stage. If we do have any hickups, production shouldn't be affected like before.. I think the sourcing and quality of the spare parts issue has also been resolved.

GL, maybe the price will hold above 18p next week, but it should improve quite a bit next year if the tankers frequency holds at this level.

Admittedly I thought Kraken would be fixed much sooner , think they called it calibration issues in Dec 2017. I got the impression from what the Board said. Basically now analysts don’t believe the Enquest board given the age of some of the portfolio and constant breakdowns , .no dividend is a sign of weakness , I look at the Motorpoint share price and market cap , within Ftse 350 like Enquest , it’s market cap wouldn’t be where it is without a dividend policy, Patience here for another year, maybe 2

Heather has had problems with this compressor all year , so new improved Scolty now might make up for both Heather and Thistle. Then you still have extra from Kraken at 3 tankers / mth. I’d agree with Pelle , they could be doing 80k on a good day , 72k average in 2020 might be lower end of guidance range .