Member Info for hitman1a

We need to Brent trend to $70 over the next 4 weeks.. see a 14 day turnaround on Kraken in April,

i still think the farm-in option into Seapluse discoveries without the exploration cost and accumulated interest if projects are delayed is a good move for Enquest. Provide the people and expertise, work out total cost, add a reasonable profit margin and get paid in bopd.. Multiply by 12 projects..

Say 2k bopd /project, would give a reasonable annual positive cashflow annuity on say an extra 24k bopd/annum..

All profit for shareholders and helps deleverage quicker, and these are new drills so the annuity would last a long time.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/193992/expect-to-pay-for-the-privilege-looming-undersupply-of-top-tier-rigs/

Owners of high-spec rigs will “continue to test pricing” as demand increases – day rates for deepwater floaters in the UK will exceed $200,000 (£151,720), above the recent range of $120,000-$160,000.

Westwood said this was evidenced in Premier Oil recently securing the Transocean Leader for a campaign in early 2020 for day rates of $245,000 (£185,857).

90% chance of success on portfolio using seismic data.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-exploration-analysis/in-squeezed-oil-industry-some-rethink-hunt-for-new-barrels-idUSKCN1PU1AJ

Very diverse portfolio, more detail mid way.

Hi Pelle, drilling starts in mid 2019, targeting 12 frontier and established areas, over 490 days.

Could get some good results this year to look at . Any stakeholder will be rewarded financially. Seapluse can't operate themselves. If they are all dusters, we haven't lost anything. It's all upside imv.

Hello Pelle, yes the new drilling contract is a lot better for DC4, but it's still cost a fortune, and i still dont know if we will get anymore than 5k/day. ...net difference to overall total daily Kraken production. ....anyway almost finished. Perhaps it's more geared to later years when other wells decline a bit.

I just think Magnus is easier to develop further and better value for money. We were told there is a lot of old equipment on Magnus that once changed will enable higher production , and perhaps we are already seeing it now. I also believe we will have a decent chunk of debt paid down in 2020, to get nearer to $1b. The annual interest savings help us fund new drills in 2021 and beyond. AB knows what he's doing.

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/maersk-drilling-to-provide-rigs-for-seapulses-12-well-drilling-program/

Looks like another potentially structured Magnus type deal in 2021 once drilling complete.

Ps: Magnus is a lot better than the market gives credit for. New Magnus drills are much better than drilling DC4 , which looks expensive, but we had no choice. The drilling contract had already been signed.

Hello L3/ Pelle

I remember in Dec 2017, DC1 and DC2 were connected to the first production train.. DC3 later on to the second. We can assume they are still connected that way.. but perhaps 1 or 2 production lines have been swapped around to balance the throughput.. it's a possibility.. If they were reallocated say 50/50 , then at somepoint we need to allow for DC4 connection (assume DC3 shuts).. and the regular annual maintenance (happened In March last year), which means we lose a lot of daily production for a week or 2.. so I'd say 30 days to next tanker, .. All comes down to how much Enquest can afford to lose in cashflow, and best time is the same time the annual maintenance takes place.

All speculation. but a longer delay would mean more extensive rectification work is being done imv

Hello E121, yes it's me from 3i. thanks to all for your posts. Really appreciate them

It is possible one production train has been closed much earlier to incorporate modifications before DC4 is connected to the DC3 seabed unit.. so might be out of action for several/ 6 weeks. If we assume TL leaves by 14 March.. it leaves another 2 weeks of testing in March on a modified production train before DC3 is put back on...in early April.

We have never been told the actual production numbers for each DC unit, or which production line produces how much, or the combination of how they are attached to AK.. If each DC has one production well connected to a separate production train, we could at some point be losing all of DC3 and 50% of DC1 and DC2..

In the back of my mind, I had DC3 at 12k/day.. so that leaves 18K from DC1 and DC2.. 50% leaves 9k/day on the worst day. That means 61 days to fill another 550K tanker .. ouch, ......but does explain the low average for the yearly estimate on AK.

And of course the same shut down on the other production train at some point later if the modifications work.

I was thought DC4 connected to DC3 on the seabed.. and then the total output got fed to AK. Sort of remember AB saying at last year's AGM that most of the work had already been done.. Accordingly once TL is finished, first oil should be fairly quick.. They might already have first oil, but only confirm on 21st via combined RNS with Results.

I can only assume they would test isolated DC4 on one of two production trains.. For the moment think they are now only using 1 production train, so daily output near 20k/25K from DC1 and DC2. Hence delay in next offload. Might only get back to 35k plus in early April.