Member Info for hitman1a

Yep..sort of thought there's no way he's leaving low hanging fruit for someone else to pick..

Been thinking he would buy more after closed period ended.. and before the next tanker.

Got to laugh really at how much he can throw at this..

Only one person for the top-up job and that's AB

I do wonder if he suffers from what I do.. keeps topping up to bring the average down.

Good luck L3T.. Recovery action in play.

Horse at back of last bend just about to make it's move..A placing still makes money.

Topped up £5k at 19.41p... expensive compared to Chairman.. but should get to 22p on the next tanker if we spot it by the weekend.... Need some socks to go with the new shoes.

The problem is how do we inspire large IIs to buy into Enquest, with all the historic issues on Kraken and work still to be done in September 2019 ?.

It's a tough sell, but i was impressed by Jan and Feb 19 total company production numbers even with only one train working on Kraken.

Perhaps they could release the March 19 company production numbers in early April via interview/ youtube video..or IR , ...they definitely need to restore confidence with regular monthly updates .

If you think the world has say X years (say 50) of easy oil left... and Opec need oil price stability in the $75 range.. the $15m increase in NPV from $68 to $75 adds $105m to the annual profit..

Multiply by 13 years of reserves, gives $ extra to equity holders of $1365m, /1.30/1690 : 62p
Add it to the £1.12 calculated the other day at $68 improves the cash base to equity to £1.74

Sub 20p is really too low.. I agree with BM.. it's very undervalued once we get into Q2 with higher oil prices..

Apart from Trump., a lot of people in the US don't think $60 WTi is high.. so perhaps $65 WTi is a reasonable target over Q2, (with Brent $73), Kraken selling for $2 premium into 2020. IMO (?)

Everyone waiting for Trump to make a decision in early May re Iran.. then longs might boost it from $68 to $75,
Just 5 weeks to wait, but I've read the Trump people are divided on what to do... so could be rolled over, which is still positive, just not as much as zero.. Most funds can make more money buying into ETFs rather than speculate on a few bucks rise if Trump does or doesn't do something.. Opec + actions have taken the extreme volatility out of the market.

Good summary from Bloomberg last night after 12pm on Houston shipping channel restrictions. normal week has 42 oil related ships use it, but last few days only 1 has managed to get in and resupply the handful of refiners that process 850k bopd.. No one wants extra supplies from the land pipework because it's the wrong type. Other articles also mention contamination in parts, because it gets mixed with the bad grades in the pipework along the way.

$75 Brent long term would double the SP of Enq quite quickly.. as earnings would be fantastic.

I was looking at the Telegraph data re: PMO Eps of 5x.. compared to ours of 2..
With 13 years reserves (deduct 5 for debt repayment, creditors over debtors and 2019 extra capex), deduct 3 years for decom, so only 5 years for eps.) It's hard to see Enq ever going over 5x, without Brent moving above the $68 mark, albeit Jefferies had a recent revised eps number for 2019 which would indicate this should be nearer 21p today.

Potential extra trade is to top up on Monday at 19p for a rise to 21p (10%) and potentially a lot more once Trump decides what he wants to do. There is no way Saudi will bring on more oil over the next 6 mths..as expensive lessons have been learned, what ever Trump decides to do..

So we just wait for the next Kraken tanker,

Looks reasonable. Eps

low PE ratio imv due to historic performance

Should improve to 3 x over 12 mths.

Fair enough E121.. I remember seeing it and then it never came up in any articles afterwards..

Jefferies were quite positive before like the rest last September (pre Rights issue)

Enquest Plc (OTCMKTS:ENQUF) – Jefferies Financial Group issued their FY2018 earnings estimates for Enquest in a report released on Monday, September 10th. Jefferies Financial Group analyst M. Wilson expects that the company will earn $0.15 per share for the year. Jefferies Financial Group also issued estimates for Enquest’s FY2019 earnings at $0.17 EPS, FY2020 earnings at $0.19 EPS, FY2021 earnings at $0.14 EPS and FY2022 earnings at $0.14 EPS.

15p was a target SP last year.. when the SP was in mid 20s (October ish).. so Jefferies were spot on. Probably because they knew about issues on Kraken in Nov and Dec.

It will take a bit of convincing for them to change their mind.. I guess they will issue a new SP forecast once they hear about the new production rates/ next tanker. They might add 5p and target 20p

Yes Spindok..
FPSO Kraken can extract and pump to tanker at same time .

Thinking 2 tankers a month..

Not sure what price they got low-balled with last year with things were not working well, but given the following:

1. 2018 repairs
2. 2019 repairs
3. DC4 investment
4. Less discount off Brent.
5. Current Brent price

Surely the asking price has gone up.. If were to say sell 10k ie: 25% of Kraken.. what price would we get.. ?

I think we could drop from 70k to 60 bopd. if we could get 25% of gross capex back ( $2.3b) :$575m
That would repair the balance sheet quite rapidly.. perhaps the SP would double quicker imv.

Or am i thinking a bit too short term and the future NPV is far better than the sale price and accumulated yearly interest it would save, or other opportunities lost.

E121.. your probably right... re last years AGM.. i'm sure he was the least optimistic about Brent forward curve.. I had mentioned about trend to $75/$80 over 3 years, and he grimaced ... AB was optimistic.. .. so another piece of evidence. Surely he would not have bought unless he thought his money was safe..

Must be all the cashflow coming into the bank, ........If you remember AB saying every $ of debt repaid adds the equivalent to equity.. which is true.. i'm just not too sure the stock market gives it too much attention until the next half-yearly accounts.

It's actually a really good sign.. more evidence that word is out.. With the wealth of knowledge he has, perhaps other Directors will take his lead and average down, now we are out of the closed period.

If Goldmans are correct in that balance will be restored by end of April/ early May, then the current price is still too low for most Opec + members.. All they can do is continue with the cuts into 2H 2019 and see what happens on the demand side. Sanctions won't really play that much of a role, as it all seems to find buyers somehow..

Looks like we are at $68/$70 max for rest of year..

If he thinks it's a good buy... then it must be

Didn't i read something in the accounts about him retiring once a replacement is found..

That's 2 good buys he's made.

Word has got out..

Yeah man. !!!!

Hello L3T

The evidence is that we are not at 15p.. post annual accounts.

Most brokers waiting for next tanker to provide proof of life.

I was already convinced by Cairn's analysis.

I guess word got out that Kraken with DC4 is producing quite a bit.. If the average in Jan and Feb from K was 20k gross, then surely the average from end of March/April will be nearer 36k bopd.. what's that 67.7k plus 11k

Company production on a good day like today with no maintenance scheduled on any asset in portfolio : 79k bopd

Call it 80k bopd. .

Got to be a good chance of hitting top of production guidance of 70k bopd for the year.

$500m cashflow per year

Reserve life 13 years
Less 5 years for complete debt repayment
Less 3 year for decommissioning costs
All other assets written off to zero

Leave 5 years for shareholders $2500m / 1.32 / 1690m: £1.12

At least they are in the right ball park now..

But it pays not to pay all the debt off.. Use the Bond money from Jan 2022.. and refinance the Bonds in Oct 2023.
Adding one more asset like Magnus from BP adds $500m NPV.. so why not do a MEGA deal with BP.. Take on 3 or 4 in a bundle deal and bring them in, one every 6 months with a $150m deposit on each.

That would bring an extra 50,000 bopd (say 12.5k x 4). The paperwork is already done.. copy Magnus. change name and save.

Yes the deleveraging repairs the balance sheet over 3 years. but a BP MEGA deal transaction would create $1b plus of NPV for shareholders overnight.. Don't think i able to sleep with what the share price could be.. Certainly worth sacrificing measly dividends, if they could announce something sooner and complete later.. Maybe they could announce something 2 years from now.

I'd have to agree with Romaron..

eg: mine are held with HL.. so perhaps HL's impression is they are an II, but really it's just people like me grouped together in a bundle...

I'd say the large IIs are staying away because even though the cashflow now generates £500m a year.. it all goes into paying for historic capex and loans.. ie no spare profit.. same next year.. and year after that.. They basically aren't allowed to buy imv.

We are just holding for no returns over 3 years and some sort of sympathy rise in the SP on the assumption that deleveraging of $1.5b over 3 years will add some equity to the balance sheet, because it then unlocks distributable equity for shareholders... (debt stays at $1b)

Rise in Brent to $70 helps further, but only $15m per $ from $67, as per presentation..

SP has to rise at some point given reserve life of 13 years producing 67k/day. A positive trigger could be Kraken work in September .If all goes well, you could see a reasonable jump in price if IIs buy in...

Hello Profitaker

I was merely reflecting on the comments i read in an article (IC i think).. trade creditors was mentioned..

I had incorrectly thought the RCF could be paid down quicker by 31 Dec 2020, but can now see the money has to be allocated to the trade creditors and accrual provisions.. 2021 is where the balance of RCF is paid, so that leaves the time period from Jan 2022 to Oct 2023 to save for the Bond repayments.. Maybe we can get half together, do the Western Flank and rollover over $500m.

Can't see any liquidity issues with Brent as it is, Kraken discount less than $2, little or no capex going forward from 2020 and very very very friendly suppliers who are happy to paid only when Enquest request the invoice.