Member Info for hitman1a

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/197381/discovery-of-suspicious-package-causes-evacuation-near-sullom-voe-terminal/

What a relief..

Think i might spend a bit extra at Asda tonight.

lol

1. Operating costs (expenditure) 2018 : $465.9m
These are annual production, transportation and tariff costs

"Operating expenditure expected to be approximately $600 million, including additional interest in Magnus"
.. so I'd say this doesn't include historic unpaid invoices which make up Trade and other payables/accruals..

2. Cash capital expenditures expected to be approximately $275 million; includes a combined total of approximately
$100 million related to deferred payments from prior periods and phasing of spend from 2018, mainly DC4

Chance $100m already included in accruals from last year : ie contract signed and therefore included in year end, even though work carried out in Q1 2019.

I'm only focusing on how much the balance sheet improves on a monthly basis.. Once this becomes clearer, ie at AGM, then we should see some SP improvement.. not long to wait really : AGM 23 MAY. complimentary coffee and cake.. etc

Enquest don't include trade creditors and accruals in their Net Debt of $1774m so this will just decrease by FCF and other smaller bits.. it can't go as low as some expect this year due to the trade creditors payments.

You would assume the SP to improve so long as your reserves of 245MB at start of 2019 is a solid number that the market has confidence in.. albeit it doesn't help when Cairn stab you in the back at the start of the year with a reserves downgrade.. and every analyst thereafter treats it as gospel and sets low targets.. In effect guaranteeing the SP doesn't climb.

From Recent Accounts :

Trade and other payables

Trade and other payables of $502.0 million at 31 December 2018 are $55.9 million higher than at 31 December 2017
($446.1 million). $483.8 million are payable within one year (2017: $367.3 million) and $18.2 million are payable after
more than one year (2017: $78.8 million). The increase in current payables mainly reflects VAT payments due at year end combined with other working capital movements (see note 23).
****************************************************************************************************************************

Clearly all the extra cash this year 2019 (other than the $100m RCF payment in Oct 19), goes towards paying down Trade Creditors.. All helps the balance sheet recover.. Same for 2020 because you need a lot of cash for the 2021 RCF payment.. no dividends imv .. but colossal improvement in balance sheet and hopefully SP.

Question is how much is the balance sheet improving per month: $40m plus ? . perhaps a Q for the AGM..

Hello L3T

Brent 10 Jan: $61.68
Brent 12 April $71.40

If you look at the graph it's quite steady upward inclination of only $10 over 3 mths.. Everything would indicate the graph gradient would continue to do the same for the next 3 mths until OPEC meeting. which means target of $80.

That's when i would layer on hedges.. otherwise just accept the market rate. To be honest, extra $1 improvement only adds $15m / year.. so no big deal really.. but we should hedge the downside.. and it might not cost that much if we stay within a hedging range / wide collar.

Another £5k at 21.71p

Should see another tanker on it's way by next weekend and a 1p jump in SP to 23p.

Otherwise i still maintain my 1p improvement in SP / mth.. At least the deleveraging has started.. Irrespective of whether the money goes to RCF or Trade and accruals or other loans.. or even capex.. it all finds it's way onto the balance sheet somehow.. How about $40/ mth ? maybe $45m/ mth improvement. I guess that's 2p /mth ( as per Pelle also), but we should discount it by at least half..as per the current market value ratio to net assets per the last balance sheet.

It's only because they won't budge off the 63k to 70k 2019 production estimate , that the SP won't motor up to 30p .. with Brent at $71.65.

Market thinks 63k.. afterall , that's what the company said. I would say 68k to 72k at the AGM for 1H 2019..

I thought the NPV was $15m for every $ , as per the presentation. I guess it should trend upwards next year with lower interest charges.

Anyway now the world knows how the USA Trump administration works.. it's political capital is diminishing..
Eg: Airplanes that crash.. no problem, put a tariff on the competition.. You don't like 5G Huawei ?, no problem just arrest people and start a campaign against the competition.. .

Same with oil.. OPEC + might as well look after themselves.. USA requests are falling on deaf ears worldwide in all areas of the economy.. America first.. fair enough.. but don't expect everyone else to agree. They are a spent force. Oh and by the way... not everyone wants to pay so much for a new Apple phone.

Hi Pelle

I agree and perhaps they will have another look after the AGM, once they have seen some further tanker action and talked to Cairn again..

In any event, OPEC are waiting for US to decide what they want to do re Sanctions, and last night I saw a good interview about the USA wanting to get Iran exports down to ZERO.

So i agree it will head towards $75/$80 IN Q2 after mid May and then OPEC will tweak a little in June to prevent it going up further in 2H 2019.

UAE Oil minister also said they wouldn't make the same mistake again..

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/11/prepare-for-80-oil-this-summer-as-wounded-bulls-rise-rbc-warns.html

For EnQuest The average target price is just over SEK 2.50 per share, according to the analysts who follow the share. This equates to a downside of minus 8.4 percent.

Half of the analysts who follow the share think it is a situation to sell. 12.5 percent think it's time to trade in the share while 37.5 percent says retain.

A Maximum of price target for the share, Pareto Securities has SEK 5. The Lowest price target has a GMP of just over SEK 3.

"The Company is very exposed to an increasing oil price that we believe will play out during 2019. It has been faster upwards for the oil so far this year than we thought at the beginning of the year, but we believe that the oil price will continue upward and approach 80 kronor forward the year end. "

EnQuest is a share that you should take a position in if you have a clear view of what you think the oil price will go, according to Johan.

"They have relatively high production costs on their fields and they also have high indebtedness so you get both operational and financial leverage that is nice when the oil goes up but is penalised when the oil price is weak and as we have seen in recent years that it Relatively volatile share, "he says.

"If you are positive there, it is possible to see a fairly proper upside, because with an oil price of 2019 around current levels they will have the opportunity to pay off on their net debt and create share value that way," continues Johan.

Feels like Enquest are working hard to beat their own guidance.. and market expectations..

Word is out..

I guess they are all using 63k rather than the near 70k i use..

Really need March total production numbers..

Anyone think the accruals estimates in the last set of accounts might have been over-provided for.

Even 10% would be a good bonus. Bit of a long wait for the half year accounts, but all the invoices should be in now.

Yes and release the March and April production numbers.

Nothing stopping them releasing the March numbers now to build confidence.. (total will be fine)

Clearly it's just coincidence that the 15p is the same as the fake news Jefferies price last year..

I guess they are just following Barclays and RBS who have similar numbers, based on Cairn's earlier writedown info.

I'm disappointed that they all don't believe the reserves numbers Enquest say they have, because despite all the issues, that forms a large part of why i remain invested. So it just comes down to P&L , Brent and the next Kraken tanker.. We do have 250MB .. so let's just let those that want to sell in between tankers do so.. albeit It could be a nice little trade for all of us to do too... ?

09/04/18 :23.93p
21/05/18 : 37.73p

57.67% , , If Brent firms up to $75, i'd have to move my 27.5p target to 35p plus, and then 1p/ mth thereafter.

because that's a ridiculous amount of cash coming in every month. GL

Wait for the sale Spindok..

Then buy the whole pallet.

Sorry to hear that Mrd, but PMO is a much busier/ popular board and only a few did what you suggested or topped up further at those prices...

At Brent $71, Enquest should start to accelerate a bit quicker than PMO..