Lucrative oil and gas scraps7 May 2021 11:51
It is doom and gloom with oil and gas extraction in Dutch waters. Gas extraction in the North Sea has halved in the past fifteen years and the number of fields without production has doubled. Dutch oil and natural gas reserves have shrunk from € 169 billion in 2013 to less than € 10 billion today.
One major oil and gas company after another is calling it quits. Companies such as Shell, BP and Chevron have sold oil and gas fields in recent years, but smaller operators no longer see any prospect of it either. In March, the curtain fell for Tulip Oil. The company was acquired for more than € 220 million by Kistos, a new British investment vehicle that aims to extract the last scraps of oil and gas from the soil in the coming years.
Kistos (the name is Greek for the flower cistus) is yet another example of an investment company that still sees a profit in pumping up and selling oil and gas. Where oil and gas extraction used to be in the hands of Oil Majors such as Shell (via the NAM), Chevron, BP and Total, it is now financial parties that listen to names such as Chrysaor, Neptune and Kistos.
The shrinking oil and gas fields in the North Sea may have become too small for large companies, but for companies like Kistos the fields remain lucrative, according to the prospectus of Kistos. In it, the investor outlines what it expects in terms of income in the coming years under various assumptions for oil and gas volumes and capital costs. The company assumes growing volumes of oil and gas up to 2025, after which a steady decline will begin.
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With an average wacc (the minimum required return that lenders want to receive on their provided capital) of 8%, the expected cash flow after tax, discounted to now, is more than € 665 million. % is. In times of negative interest rates it is apparently also worthwhile to calculate such a virtually zero risk scenario. And then Tulip suddenly has a value of more than € 1.5 billion in the form of future income.
Compared to an investment of more than € 220 million for the acquisition of Tulip, these appear to be excellent returns in both scenarios. Especially now that the long-awaited increase in the investment deduction from 25% to 40% for new investments in gas extraction in the Netherlands comes into effect on 1 July. Kistos seems to be able to benefit optimally from this, given the plans the company has to drill for new oil in the North Sea.
Tulips may perish, but the love for oil and gas will remain for a while.
The (Dutch) Financial Times
https://fd.nl/beurs/1382783/lucratieve-olie-en-gasrestjes