Member Info for HHH81

We will see 400p before August results, for anyone in a panic. As to when that is, who knows. People can jump off then if they missed the last time.

As with most investments, depends on your time frame. If you're worried about the SP tmrw, I wouldn't touch CPI with a barge pole. Quicker and easier to go to the roulette tables. (before anyone shouts Jon Lewis etc. this is just undeniably in a different position to then. It's not that difficult to now see profits, FCF and dividend expectations, at which point there is a tangible opportunity that IIs simply could not professionally ignore)

If you have until the end of this year + then seems a very very good opportunity based upon all we know.

Cont...

What I think is happening

The share price is behaving much more weakly than the underlying business.

If you compare today's valuation with the latest trading update:

Business Share price

Revenue growing ↓

£20bn pipeline ↓

AI products launching ↓

Contact Centre disposal progressing ↓

Free cash flow expected to improve ↓

That disconnect usually means the market is questioning execution, not necessarily the strategy.

The thing I'd be watching

For me, the single biggest metric in the August half-year results isn't revenue.

It's free cash flow.

If Capita demonstrates:

positive free cash flow,

completion of the Contact Centre sale,

margins stabilising,

then I think the shares could recover quite quickly because they're currently valued on very low expectations.

If, however, cash generation disappoints again, the market may conclude that the turnaround is taking longer than expected.

I think Capita clearly suffers when there is a vacuum to be filled. The IIs still hate the share and will not add until material evidence is shown. This leads to low volumes on no news, which Shorts and algos leap on as selling momentum builds. My fear is a a LTH, the good news just leads to a recover to where we were before, not a material revaluing of the business. I'm not a trader, and have no interest in the d!ck measuring contest of what the SP will be today or tomorrow based upon tracking a fibonacci sequence. I found this very cathartic for investors (it is from Claude so if you don't like AI analysis switch off)

I've looked at the latest market information, and I don't think today's move is being driven by any new negative announcement from Capita itself.

Here's what stands out:

1. There doesn't appear to be any fresh bad news

I can't find an RNS, profit warning or broker downgrade today that would justify a sharp fall. The most recent company update remains the positive AGM trading statement from May, where management reiterated:

revenue growth of 2.9%;

the expected completion of the Contact Centre sale before the H1 results;

continued positive free cash flow expectations; and

good progress on AI initiatives.

2. The shares have become technically weak

Capita has fallen from around 415p to roughly 275p, a decline of about 34% in just over a month. Once a stock starts breaking support levels, momentum traders and algorithmic funds often add to the selling regardless of fundamentals.

3. Short sellers are becoming more active

One of the more notable developments is that reported short interest has risen to around 6%+, which is the highest level seen for several years according to market participants. That doesn't necessarily mean the business is deteriorating, but it does increase selling pressure and volatility.

4. Investors are waiting for August

The market now wants evidence that management can deliver:

completion of the Contact Centre disposal;

improving free cash flow;

better margins;

lower net debt.

Until those numbers arrive, many institutions appear unwilling to add to positions.

thanks for that trisor.

your post was very useful amongst a sea of ****3

The short term hedge position is just a trade on the will they won't they hit the June target. It probably will fall if they miss that.

If you're holding for a year, start looking at bigger homes or early retirement as any fool can see the direction of travel from here medium term

You'd also have to be r3tarded to pay £1.75 trillion valuation on space X

Shorts and a buyout.

I’m guessing, but couldn’t you acquire a stake in Capita at much lower prices by buying, but also shorting to ensure the price doesn’t go too high, so you can buy more stock to then instigate a cut price takeover bid? How you’d get so many companies to short it I don’t know

It does sound like they are behind schedule on the quotes.

There is also a story on Scottish Residents getting a class action going, which I doubt has helped the SP short term.

🤦‍♂️

And then bought back in at 396.5 again.

Master trader

Best I've ever seen

His comments move the market price every day. Take heed

Olanzapine Aim. I'll try and crowdfund you some.

The penny will drop eventually. WTP in shorting a share already priced to fail, that now has stability and an almost guaranteed set of accounts coming out showing its worth 10x it's current price.

Other than the historic bad sentiment to Capita from fund managers that lost a fortune on it in the 2010s, there doesn't seem to be any other reason. The more attention the accounts and turnaround gets, the more the funds will pile in (if we're not taken over first which would be v annoying)

Phone Mummy Savage.

Isn't it just the UT?

My average is 20p old money, and I've always targeted the £1 figure.

I watch those videos though and just think let it run

Everyone should watch that Youtube video, and take in all the commentary Richard makes. To have that analysis from the top UK small cap investor is absolute gold for me. All the traders nonsense on here is just noise. Just watch that, invest more if you can, and pray Trump doesn't end the world in the meantime.

Yep, this has PE buy out written all over it. Just at what price. After five years of suffering, hopefully a decent one!

🤣🤣🤣

Google profit Lily.

It will answer so much of your trolling.