Member Info for hey_arnold

Hopefully it will recover a percent or two after people stop closing out their long positions.

Hope everyone had a good Xmas.

Hopefully up tomorrow.

Over the past week I feel like there has defo been more buying interest. I think it has been oversold with people initially selling into results expecting them to be worse than they were and more recently off the continuing drop in oil.

I just bought 40k this morning. I am surprised people are still so keen to sell at these levels.

Do you think thats why it is down today or is it just following oil prices?

Here is a view from a bearish fund that has done well past few months:

The US Administration’s trade policies are likely to intensify economic risks. The dispute with China appears to be
particularly intractable, since the US objective is to prevent technology transfer - thus curbing China’s military and economic
challenge to the US – rather than altering the bilateral trade balance. We expect to see full 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports
into the US, with retaliatory Chinese actions focussed on both US exports and on US business ventures based in China.

Two key macroeconomic effects of further trader barriers:

Firstly, inflation rates will move higher. Secondly, global investment spending will decline due to
endemic uncertainty about optimal supply chain locations and fear of becoming the collateral casualty of geopolitical disputes.

You could say the same about bulls.... for each one that is sold you could buy the dips.... and it could result in an upward spiral.

I think Asian stocks will likely open lower which will probably see miners get sold tomorrow.

If they started Impeachment proceedings against trump, would that be bullish or bearish for Glen? I still think there is more to go on the Russia probe.

Does anyone have a view on what the result of the US midterm elections will have on Glencore share price and the trade war? If Democrats win the House of Representatives, will they start impeachment proceedings?

I think the US is coming off because everyone is worried about inflation. Not sure why thats dragged down Glencore, unless people decided Trump was just lying about China for the election (he is).

Unless earnings can top estimates, any improvement in GDP vs expectation I think is bearish as JMO said... rising interest rates = high discount rates on cash flows

I know history shows us that post mid-term elections the US market rallys, but I think the outcome will be a Democrat controlled House which I believe is bearish for the stock market as Republicans will not be able to get any further tax cuts through, which I believe is needed to provide further stimulus to the US stock market.

Petrofac probably was shorted by people bearish on oil outlook and due to the general market correction.

I think we are moving into a bear cycle

But in a bear market wont that just decrease the rate at which Glencore falls relative to the index? I don't know the answer to these questions, just feeling more bearish these days.

But if earnings don't increase due to china slowing down, and the rate at which you discount future cashflows is increasing due to higher inflation/rates.... why should the share price increase?

I've been getting chopped out of Glencore a treat... down quite a bit too over the past week. Gone to cash and going to stay there for a while (watch it bounce).

Are we moving into a bear cycle over the next year? US has defo peeked but will correlations between US and other markets remain high and will it keep pulling down Asian and Europe?

Just sold out. Couldn't stomach it

Couple of funds keep borrowing more stock to short it... Unless we get some news flow, I think PFC is going to struggle :(

I think a serious headwind that could result in the PFC sliding further could be if the Republicans lose the House of Representatives to the Democrats. Trump has opened up a lot of the US to drilling for oil and gas, this could be reversed if the above happens. I guess it could be bullish for oil prices but might not help Petrofac...... thoughts?

Why is John Wood Group not getting sold the same way Petrofac is?