RE: All-time lows?16 Jul 2025 15:55
Is it close to administration?
Well, cash is low – very low. We know from what numbers they have released, and assuming they only have the £125m RCF outstanding now, that cash is just over £42m. At least it was just over four months ago and the business had been losing £5m to £10m a month over the last year so is likely to be even worse now.
They had one loan extension refused and have reportedly been tapping the higher interest side of the loan market. That would fit with the above and again points to a weak financial position.
Even then they have only been kept afloat by selling property and issuing equities. Of course if they hadn’t paid off some of the loans early then cash wouldn’t be so tight but the fact they did and left them with so little in the bank AND they are looking for other sources of loans so soon suggests to me that the refinancing they did get (and with a 3% higher interest margin) came with strings attached which necessitated both the repayments and the cash raises.
The absence of any sort of positive trading news suggests to me problems are worsening not improving. Understandably, like many companies, they are quick to shout any crumb of good news from the rooftops and go all bashful when it is not (they may be in a close period now but that can’t excuse the silence before then).
So my conclusion is that administration is fairly inevitable unless they secure new loans, sell parts of the business, issue more equity or find some other way to bring more cash into the business. The good news is that any or all those things could easily happen and probably will (and could indeed be the reason behind the continued results delay). The bad news is that it’s only a sticking plaster – unless they get cash flow positive then they will need to keep raiding the first aid kit. So the key things to me to look for in the results are what (and how big) the plasters are that they have used (as I expect some announcement on these) and how much tangible evidence they can give that they can return to positive cash flow and profitability (and by when).
In the meantime the tumbling share price suggests there is not much by way of market confidence in the outlook and there may even be leaks supporting this – but we will soon see for ourselves. Hopefully.