Member Info for Hexam

Yep, perhaps we should all sell up and invest in a company that engages more with it shareholders and gives out a lot more detail on its developments and day to day operations.

Good luck finding one though.

Agree K3,

As they are not selling any HODL they will need to do so eventually (or raise more funds) just to cover operational costs if nothing else but I wouldn’t have expected that to be so soon (or that way) or for them to have botched the Texas numbers. So like you I think the most likely reason is to take advantage of an unexpected opportunity and the Chinese rigs fit nicely into that bucket.

So I have the same view but may be wrong and we can only wait and see if that’s the case - shouldn’t have to wait too long though either way!

Good work Speel!

Magnum - I doubt Speel has allowed for increasing HODL in the analysis as I assume it is just comparing sp and BTC directly. It’s very useful though as it gives a guide on what to expect if nothing changes apart from BTC value.

Of course things do including HODL which should mean profits rise faster than BTC and the expansion should mean they rise even faster (depending on how quick costs rise etc)

This means longer term sp should rise more than BTC (assuming BTC is rising). Also of course one off events can also cause temporary uncoupling (eg Nasdaq or other big news) after which the coupling should resume at different levels.

So it’s really good to give a baseline but BTC value is not the only thing that drives sp and of course sentiment/timing etc means this is the trend - not what to expect every day.

Nicely put MTF but I think Delacey is just having his Captain Ahab moment and it may take him a while to tire of it (longer than us anyway)

JTF/K3,

Thanks for the replies. Perry’s feedback will be interesting.

As to block times surely these are available. I found one with the daily average times (only one day in June did it appear to go over 20 mins) and the link I posted yesterday gave the average time for the second half of June (and the first few days of July). All it is simply the time taken to mine the tranche between each change of difficulty divided by the number in each tranche (always 2016). This gave 13mins and 53 seconds. Or am I misunderstanding something?

I would post the link to the daily block times but am on my phone and can’t find it at the moment :(

Thanks JTF - appreciated and always look forward to your insights too.

btw - I now understand the calculations you posted yesterday and they are very useful I but do still think one of the numbers is not quite right. The average block time in the second half of June was I think around 14 minutes and not 20 minutes. This would mean around 650 were being mined a day and that changes the expected number you had for June from 170 to just over 200 - which begs the question why ARB only mined 167?

I'm not too bothered as I suspect there are good reasons as to why the approach may not necessarily apply and the important thing is that ARB mines shed loads anyway that generate lots of revenue/profit which will only grow with the new rigs and (hopefully) increasing BTC value - but would welcome your thoughts if you haven't gone on your sabbatical yet :)

I agree with you JTF and setting up the new board was a very reasonable way of allowing people to get away from the trolls and all the bickering that goes on here. He should be applauded for putting the effort into doing that and I wish the new board and the people on it every success.

What I don’t understand is why he then seems to come back here every day, engage with trolls and bicker with just about everybody so that he is responsible for a lot of just the kind of nonsense that you were all trying to escape from in the first place?

Hi JTF - Thanks for putting that together but must admit I don't get some of it - in particular how the average block release times were 20 minutes for the second half of June and so only 450 mined per day. That would mean it would have taken 28 days to complete the latest 2016 blocks - but it only took 19 or so days. I must be missing something so I'd better do some more homework - but it will have to wait as the football's about to start :)

Hi JTF,

Good to hear from you and thanks for confirming my understanding - I really wasn't sure! Regardless of who was right it was good to have the discussion with K3 (even if it probably bored everyone else rigid) as it made me research and really think more about how this all works and what this may mean for ARB (and my investment) and that's what I love about this board when it's working well. At other times (when the squabbling, whinging or name-calling breaks out) not so much!

K3 - But that's my point. It's not. It's only the aim. It is designed to be mined at a constant rate (6.25 per block every 10 minutes i.e. 900 BTC per day) with the difficulty rate being the lever to achieve this. In practice though it will vary and you can see this on the link I provided where the average block time before the most recent change was a whopping 14 minutes nearly. This was because there were fewer miners and meant only 650 were being mined on average a day which is why the difficulty was then dropped so much to try and bring it back to 900. If exactly 900 a day were mined each and every day then I would agree with you.

K3 - I think we may just have to agree to differ on this one and I accept you may be right as I've been trying to get my head around the competition angle. My conclusion though was that the decrease in difficulty should have meant our number increased to around 180. If in fact, as in your example, MARA and RIOT had installed all the Chinese rigs then the total coins mined would simply increase to above that intended by the difficulty level reduction and though our would share decrease it would still be 180. The difficulty level would then have be increased at the next change to prevent too many coins being mined in total and this is when we would go back to the 167 sort of level. My head hurts now so I'm going for a lie down :)

K3 - Not sure about that argument. Because of the demise of the Chinese miners I thought our share was actually going up faster than the rate that the difficulty was decreasing (seem to remember someone saying that it has nearly doubled recently)???

In any event I assumed that if it is 10% easier to mine then you will get (on average) 10% more if you have the same number of machines and will simply get even more if you add more machines. In other words this is why the average block time isn't always 10 minutes as it depends on both the difficulty level and the numbers mining. What you get for the same amount of effort only depends on difficulty. Hope that makes sense - though not convinced it's right!

I should also add that if the recent 28% fall in difficulty were to continue for the whole of July (i.e. not change at the next 14ish day review) then the average daily difficulty for July would also be around 28% lower. That should translate to a nearly 40% increase in mining! Plus July has an extra day.

So all else being equal that points to approaching 250 for July!! Of course as we've seen with June's figures it's not that straightforward and I'll believe it when I see it but it is easy to see why PW and others are so excited by the recent dramatic fall in difficultly.

PS - K3, I calculated the 10% the same way as you.

@Blubay - it didn't on any one day. The average daily difficulty in June was about 10% lower than the average daily difficulty in May allowing for the 21% increase mid-May, the 16% decrease at the end of May and the 5% decrease mid-June.

K3 has also come up with the same 10% so I think the maths is OK.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

"Mining was up 4% in June, why is this a problem?"

Because difficulty was down over 10%. Should we be happy in July if difficulty is down a further 30% but mining figures are up only 10%?

As I said I'm not too worried but I'm also not interested in spinning every piece of news just so it suits what I wish for (like all the people that tried to convince us that ARB couldn't talk about NASDAQ even though plenty of examples of companies doing exactly that were posted on this board).

I strongly believe that ARB is a fantastic company and a brilliant investment but to get the most out of this board we shouldn't sugar coat everything. Ramping is every bit as unhelpful as de-ramping (although far less mean).

*reduction in difficulty even!

Hi K3 - I worked it out (from figures in link below). I'm not too concerned the mining numbers are not as high as the difficulty in reduction suggests as never going to be perfectly in line and could be plenty of reasons for the smallish variation. Just hope they can take full advantage of the much bigger reduction in difficulty (and the extra day!) coming in July.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

"I was a bit disappointed at first with results but forgot to take into account that the other coin we mine is not being converted into as much btc"

This doesn't matter as the number reported is BTC equivalent not BTC so I'm afraid this won't be the reason for the slightly disappointing mining figures (given that average difficulty in month was over 10% lower). It is usually the reason though why the HODL doesn't add up - so likely they haven't sold any again this month.

Revenues and margin both down but in line with fall in average BTC value in June (about 25%) so no concerns there and if/when BTC recovers then as long as ARB keep the HODL in tact they will get that revenue back and then some.

I don’t think it’s a disgrace of a board, just the occasional poster. In fact I prefer the board since the breakaway group formed. Sure it’s much quieter and there are some contributors I really miss (JTF, RC etc) but it is far less rampy than it was.

As for the trolls I can put up with them. Unless they tell outright lies their nonsense can easily be ignored and at least they are usually polite (if only to reduce their chances of being banned).

However it seems some people just can’t ignore them and either hurl abuse, clog up this board with endless replies or seem eager to pick a fight (eg replying to threads that had long since ended) - though bizarrely these tend to be the same people that went to the discord group to escape them in the first place!

However, it’s an open forum and everyone should be welcome and have the right to post their view so long as they don’t cross a line - the problem I suppose is that those lines are different for everybody.

As for me I am confident of ARBs future success (though would be foolish to be certain) and look forward to more informative posts from those that genuinely care about the company be they positive, negative or somewhere in between. GLA.

Speel - “It has become so cr*p with people calling out people with no substantiated evidence that I will not bother with this bb in the future”

That’s a shame as your posts are welcome and good to read. Sadly it is the curse of these boards that not only do they attract trolls but also those who think they are on the side of the angels yet are so quick to judge and abuse.

I hope you are not put off posting in the future by such idiots and in the meantime wish you well and good luck with your investments.