Member Info for Hexam

jay - that's the price at the end of May not the average price.

Sorry jay but I think you need to check your numbers. The average daily BTC price in May was much higher than $35k. I think the average value is down over 20% in June so revenues are likely to fall as the hash rate change won't be enough to make up for it. July should be a bumper month though with difficulty so much lower!

The average difficulty for June is a bit more than 10% lower than May though PW suggested in the post AGM Q&A that individual miners generally would be mining 6% more in June and 30% more for July. So maybe 175-180 for June? Or more as unless memory is playing tricks there was a statement I think that some of the new rigs delayed to September/October had actually been installed already. Could be other reasons of course why production may fluctuate so hard to say but main point is that the hash rate impact will be felt much more in July than this month.

Yep, more flip-flops than the average beach shop. To be fair though I think any government would have struggled plotting a course in this pandemic between the safety of the public and its freedoms. It's the inconsistency and at times hypocrisy that I've found particularly galling though - the latest with Boris initially backing Han***k despite the latter so clearly breaking the rules that he had set and insisted that everybody else should follow to the letter.

If he had stayed it would have seriously weakened the credibility of anybody within government saying what we should or shouldn't do. As it is I think it is still weakened and just adds to the pressure to open up. Although personally I've generally favoured the more safety first approach the time does feel right with vaccination levels so high here (and increasing elsewhere) to open up fully (or at least a lot more). The new Health Secretary also has the chance to play the 'hero for freedom' and is already talking in such terms.

So perhaps the (potential) move to a greeny shade of yellow for the Canary Islands really is a small but telling signal.

Will be interesting to see how travel shares open tomorrow.

If this is indeed the case then just get the feeling that after all the false dawns this could finally be the true one. GLA

@jayblu48 - exactly. A chart can always be found to tell you just what you want to hear - or say - as between them they cover ever eventuality (and in some cases one chart is enough to do this)!

I agree that TA does have a role in trading for predicting short term movements, so especially useful for traders. For LTHs I would question its use though compared to the fundamentals of the business. That's not through a lack of understanding. I'm a mathematician, so have no problem with that but its exactly because of my background that I become sceptical that just because something happened in the past that it will tell the future accurately. As you say it is a tool, based on probabilities etc. and can be a handy one to have in the bag, but too many posters dress these possibilities up as facts and that's when I tend to get annoyed. In your case though it was more because it was pretty much to me stating the obvious i.e. if the price breaks to 142p it should get to 210p. I think that's a fairly safe bet for a stock that's been 210p not so long ago and where the fundamentals are stronger now (just BTC that is weaker at the moment).

Hi ZQ,

Sorry if I offended at all but to me TA is very much like using a crystal ball. The fortune teller mixes some detail (e.g. precisely 152p and 210p) amongst the vagueness (such as timescale) and with alternatives (in this case it might go down to 60p instead). So pretty much all bases covered.

My point is simply that it is, like a crystal ball, guesswork and I’d rather put my faith in the fundamentals which to me suggest much more than £2 within 12 months (though not of course guaranteed). But each to their own.

I agree though that psychology (with a push from the mms) has a big part to play, especially in the short term and that it (and BTC price) are probably the two biggest factors in explaining the violent short term ups and downs.

I'll only forget about 200p when it's too far back in the rear view mirror.

Correct. To get to 200p we'd have to get through 152p first.

210p by when? This time next year? If so then I will be very disappointed if it is only that much by then as the fundamentals suggest to me that it should be much higher than that (assuming BTC plays ball even just a little but).

I can see some value in applying TA to bitcoin (and then assessing what that might mean to ARB) but not to ARB directly. It's stage of development and in particular its strong and rapidly improving financials will in my view be the key driver, not what the price action has been in the recent past. The 'unknown' and big influence is BTC price and there TA may be of use but it seems to always come with ifs and buts and consequently ends up with different answers that roughly translate as anything might happen.

Totally agree with the sentiment K3 and that the market has been slow to catch up but I don't think the June numbers will help them to. The average daily price of BTC on which revenues are based are down over 20% in June and I doubt that will be offset by the increase in numbers of coins mined (as most of the good news coming in that direction won't have affected June numbers - at least not fully).

I suspect the market will focus more on revenues than BTC mined (though they shouldn't) and am just trying to manage expectations. Longer term (and not much longer) I agree that the market will catch on big time and the sp will fly (and stay airborne)!

Probably not I'm afraid as revenues are likely to be lower than May. Much better prospects for the second half of the year though.

Well said FireAnt. I gain much more from having my views challenged, either they stand up or they don't, but either way that is better than them not being challenged in the first place.

AB - yes, one of us is right and I don't know which but I agree we each just have to make our own judgement. And oh, look, right on cue a troll turns up!

I think there’s a difference between disgruntled, worried investors (musicman, xenor etc) and trolls (too many too name and won’t give them the satisfaction of doing so).

I’d much rather hear their concerns (and reassure if possible) than listen to the smug types who brag about their investments or crow whenever the sp goes up. Just to be clear I don’t include you in that group K3 and am not having a go at you. It’s just a shame we’ve all grown so tired of the trolling that any negative view can get short shrift. I know it didn’t help that musicman misquoted his trade originally but I do believe the 69p is correct. Even if I’m just being naive I’d still rather give those that ‘moan’ the benefit of the doubt if it’s not obvious they’re just another pathetic troll.

Look forward to going there.

I’m confident ARB will pick up and am not worried about the current low sp. Although this is my largest holding I’m diversified enough for it not to give me sleepless nights.

Besides I don’t know a company with better management or better fundamentals versus its share price. The main drag is BTC at the moment but I have belief it will bounce back strongly, eventually, and in the meantime just accept that the volatility is part of the deal when investing in anything crypto related.

Hi musicman,

Nope - never been to Northumbria though plan to go one day as it looks a lovely part of the country.

Can see why you thought that but my ‘name’ has nothing to do with the town there, and is not spelt the same as I’ve dropped an ‘h’ - which is quite common for where I do come from :)

Must admit I've never bought into the argument of BTC as an inflation hedge. I can see that BTC may pick up its share of any spare cash going but can't see why it is seen as a hedge against inflation. Surely a better option is one where the performance is in some way linked to inflation e.g. companies whose earnings are expected to rise with it.

BTC is far too volatile and the only way I see it being a protection against inflation is if you believe it will outperform the inflation rate in the long run. That's fair enough and I agree with it but in my view that doesn't make it a 'hedge', just a bet on BTCs performance. A hedge I think should move in sympathy with inflation to some degree and the volatility of BTC means it certainly won't do that - especially in the short term.

Btw K3 - totally agree with you about predictions. Pointless.

I really don't care what BTC is doing at the moment - where it will be next year and beyond is all I care about. Unfortunately nobody knows. Not the trolls with their spiteful guesses based on no more than what they feel will panic people or that will simply goad a response. Nor the rampers or those that look at the pretty candles, death crosses, golden crosses, tea leaves and old bones to come up with 'if it does a then b may happen but if c then d or maybe e but possibly f if there is full moon etc.'

What I do know is ARB, unlike many companies, is making a profit today, and a healthy one at that. It will keep making a profit whilst BTC keeps above $15-$20k. It will make huge profits (giving a huge SP) if BTC gets back to its ATH and more.

As many people have said before it comes down to whether you believe in BTC (and yes, I know ARB is a blockchain company but BTC is still the focus for revenues for now). If you do believe, and you are proved right to do so, then BTC will recover, recover big and the SP will fly. If not then you're simply in the wrong place. DYOR, decide and if you are invested do your best to turn away from the screen and not to respond to the trolls as that is exactly what they are looking for.

Thanks for the tip JTF but I'm worried that treatment comes with possible side effects i.e. ramping disease (main symptom a fixation about the moon), OCD regarding BTC value and an aversion to negativity of any kind ;-)