Member Info for Hexam

*twice as much to mine a coin than they can sell it for?

Poor - what options? It's an unattractive business to an investor, nobody seems willing to lend them money (according to PW) and most of its assets are already borrowed against. It could try an RI but at this price?

It doesn't matter how big the bitcoin industry is. If a company in any industry runs out of money it is dead.

How do you think ARB is going to make money when it costs it more than twice as mine a coin than they can sell it for?

Why would an outsider investor invest in such a business?

It has a few months cash left. If you don't believe me then believe the CEO of Argo. He has said they need new funds to last another year.

I'm not wrong - it's simple maths. It needs BTC to rise a lot - and soon.

You can't compare ARB sensibly with Tesla. ARB are making losses and has nearly run out of money with by their own admission no bank or other lender willing to loan them more. Their only hopes are for a massive surge in BTC to swing them back into positive cash flows before it's too late or a new investor/buy-out, but the latter seems unlikely as any suitor would be much better off picking up the assets on the cheap in administration - and with no attaching debt.

Agree a run above $21k will have a noticeable impact on the sp - on the future of ARB though not so much. Really needs it to get close to $30k.

"minus all fluff here"

The missing 'fluff' here being that CINE actually made a loss in H1 (nearly $300m after tax).

CINE will in all likelihood be profitable again but it wasn't then and it isn't now - and no matter how many times you regurgitate selective numbers from the months-old, half-year accounts it won't change that.

Bonkers - they only released trading updates late last year, and early this, after good months so wouldn't have expected one anyway until at least after November's was available. But the Ch11 and the monthly financials probably mean they are not appropriate now anyway.

September numbers were only released on Monday so probably can't expect October numbers for a while.

patience - they are in the court dockets (713,714 and 715).

There are three as the results are separated into the US, Picturehouse and the rest of the 'UK' business.

You may also be interested in the updated financial projection they have done as part of the Oct 31 submission if you haven't seen it already (page 95 of docket 722).

Bonkers - I’m not sure we’ll see a trading update but they are providing pretty full monthly updates on the financials as part of the Ch11 for the businesses inside it (i.e. excl ROW).

The last, for September, didn’t make for pretty reading but no real surprise there given the paucity of films but October should be a bit better whilst November and December are expected by CINE to show profits.

For the probability to favour it, it has to be over 50%. I don't think it is personally but I hope you are right.

Poor - yes any company can go bust but with ARB they WILL go bust if they don't get the funding they need. You're right they could and that is exactly what I said and in that case you would have spotted a bargain. I cannot see the sp moving much though unless that actually happens (or BTC soars) so in my view you are stuck like the rest of us unless there is some concrete good news.

"I cannot see this going under regardless what the no clues claim."

It's what PW has claimed could very well happen and I quote:

"While Argo is exploring other financing opportunities, there can be no assurance that any definitive agreements will be signed or that any transactions will be consummated. Should Argo be unsuccessful in completing any further financing, Argo would become cash flow negative in the near term and would need to curtail or cease operations. The Company is endeavoring to complete such financing transactions to provide the Company with working capital sufficient for its present requirements, that is for at least the next twelve months from the date of this announcement."

So he and anybody with their eyes open agrees - they are finished if they don't get funding. Nobody KNOWS if they will get funding - not even PW. They might, they might not.

Btw they are already 'cash flow negative' and have been for months - what PW means by this is that they actually run out of cash after already selling everything they can.

Henry - regarding debt:

- Yes, the debt (i.e. loans and borrowings) was indeed around $3.5bn pre-covid

- It has never been $8bn (this figure also includes lease liabilities). Prior to the Chapter 11 it was around $5bn but is now closer to $6bn due to the DIP financing and in particular the $664m funding for additional working capital (the other DIP funds within the $1.935bn are simply new loans to pay existing loans so haven't changed the debt overall for the group)

- On sale and leaseback they cannot do this to raise cash simply because, as you say, they have already done it on their estate

- On revenues, yes in time they should get back to $4bn+ depending on the operations/cinemas they keep. CINE do not expect this though until at least 2024

- Dividends obviously will only be a possibility if and when they get back onto a sound financial footing and start making profits again

I very much agree with you that this isn't a company that is likely to fail, it is more a case of what it looks like post Ch 11 - in particular with respect to existing shareholders.

Willow - Vue recently got wiped out actually. Now under new owners. Yes it’s covid related but it was compounded with CINE due to Regal purchase and aborted CP takeover - though even both of these really only turned bad because of covid i.e. just bad timing.

Willow - most big cinema chains are struggling. Cine has most of its business in the US and is the 2nd largest in the world. The largest, AMC, is also making losses and is strapped for cash.

CINE issues are just a bit more acute though with the debts taken on for Regal purchase, COVID and on top of that there is the CP lawsuit.

Output from studios is increasing though and revenues improving so all should get back to profit eventually, just needs time and hopefully the Ch 11 gives that to CINE - and without too much impact on shareholders.

"I like Hexam, he just arrived last night"

Er...I've been on this board a lot longer than you. Another thing you've pulled out of thin air. You also said you've filtered me?!

The numbers I've quoted for CINE are from their accounts and the court dockets. Anybody can check them and see for themselves the nonsense you spout about them being profitable.

I'm optimistic about CINE - I just don't see the need to bend, hide or break the truth to express it.

"In case you missed it."

The figures (as far as they go) may be correct but the message is false. CINE is NOT profitable. Loss after tax in first half of the year $293.8m (omitted from Mags numbers).

Loss in September alone (see court dockets) $120m.

A profitable, cash generative business does not need emergency, additional funding or enter Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Madness.

HC - But how do they see a return on that investment, whatever the terms? The company will keep needing more and more money pumped into it unless BTC turns dramatically. If that is what the investor is relying on then surely a direct BTC investment offers far better risk v reward?

No - in my view it is underpriced - but just my view and lots of twists and turns yet.

"no ch11 as had been thought"

WHAT!? We are IN Chapter 11. What planet are you on?????

Excellent news indeed - and who is stumping up the money in this heavily loss-making business? Banks? New investors? Us?