Member Info for Hexam

Indeed - it’s not just a straight finance equation. There’s a who blinks first part, others may be gambling on holding and appreciating, some will not want to be seen to stop and no doubt there are plenty of other considerations on top.

“Really? You think Clsk can generate cash at $17k? I had about $20k as the figure in my head.”

Yes - at least from memory that was the figure from their latest quarterly numbers by simply dividing the ongoing cash costs (excluding capex) by coins mined.

Of course difficulty has increased since then but they have also expanded so will be spreading fixed costs more so probably quite a similar number now.

CLSK are one of the more efficient miners but with BTC falling further we really are in the territory now where all miners should be considering stopping production. Will depend how much cost they can save over and above just power by doing so. CLSK may be losing cash at $17k but they would almost certainly lose more if they stopped mining because of fixed costs that have to be paid regardless.

Will be interesting to see how global hash rate moves over next few days if BTC hangs around current levels or falls even further.

Final hearing on certain first day motions so something interesting may come out of this.

I don't think they all have to 'absorb' losses at $17k-$19k. I think CLSK for example can just about generate cash at this kind of level - of course it leaves very little to invest in any growth, they'd have to look for additional funding for that. They obviously won't be making an overall profit once you allow for depreciation and other non-cash costs but when companies are in survival mode it is the demands on cash that are key in the short term. One wrinkle to that though is any loan covenants linked to profitability but even then they tend to be linked to EBITDA or similar.

Unfortunately for ARB their monthly cash costs are probably still over $30k per BTC mined so they're leaking money at a scary rate. They must be close to being better off shutting down as power costs plus other costs they may be able to save by halting production could be higher than the revenue they gain now.

Mags

1) I'm a LTH as anybody who's been here a lot longer than you knows so that's one lie
2) I haven't been touting any bad news as I don't know what's going to happen so that's another lie

I'm hopeful but realistic and see no purpose to either exaggerating the upside or overstating the risks.

Paul - no issues with you at all. It's officemanager, magmanus, bcarm, strike, kenny and the rest of the ramping circus that I find tiresome. Being optimistic about a share is one thing, and a good thing, but being ridiculous - like it's a 'technical' move, or MMs 'need your shares' is quite another.

I suppose I should filter but it's just as annoying only seeing half a 'conversation'.

Just to make things worse, even Sharebel's turned up again.

To be fair I think the dislike is of idiot rampers rather than this stock.

Today’s RNS didn’t come out ‘just like that’. It was a six monthly return and the last one came out on May 9th. So it was completely predictable that we had that RNS today - in fact it was a certainty as it’s an FCA requirement.

So it was not ‘out of the blue’ at all but I agree, when the next one will come out relating to the Chapter 11 process (or anything else) is anybody’s guess.

“and we have another meeting next week too then 2nd RNS would be perfect

(we had one today out of the blue today....)”

The RNS today was not out of the blue. It was the standard block listing six monthly return. Guess when the last one was…

Poor - if you want numbers then the total fixed assets had a book value of £158m at half-year - market value may be higher but I doubt if anybody would pay more for them given ARB would be a somewhat distressed seller.

Loans and borrowings were £118m.

Currents assets were mainly made up of a little cash, pre-payments for machines that have now largely been sold at knockdown prices and BTC (now almost all gone).

Whatever way you look at it the balance sheet will not be pretty when it comes out and I seriously doubt there will be much equity leftover in the properties once the debt is factored in. The results are already later than they were last year so who knows when we'll eventually get them.

"ARB own three facilities- Helios, Baie Comeau, Mirabel.

Indeed but both Mirabel and Baie Comeau are mortgaged and most of the machines and other electrical equipment at Helios is also supporting loans.

Their debt (loans and borrowing) was approaching $150m at mid-year. It will be interesting to see how well the value of assets now covers this when they (finally) issue the Q3 results.

I appreciate you trying to articulate an upside Poor but I'm still not reading anything concrete that supports why the share would be expected to bounce back if it hits 5p (other than the obvious i.e. a BTC recovery or a white knight coming to the rescue).

No, I don't think ARB will recover. I'm a LTH though who has lost a fair bit of money but still hold some shares in the hope I'm wrong but instead of seeing any sound logic that I might be it's just the usual nonsense - 'it's down lots so surely must go up', 'it's a punt', 'how dare you comment on a public message board on a share you're not invested in - you must be really sad or a paid de-ramper' etc. etc.

If you only had people actually invested in the share commenting it would be a very biased board and of no use to anybody apart from to massage egos or set over-inflated expectations that keeps people holding shares perhaps longer than they should.

As it is nearly all the good arguments are coming from the 'de-rampers' whilst the rampers for the most part just stick with baseless hope and insults.

It would be good to see a well reasoned, bullish case for ARB but that isn’t it. It’s just bottom-feeder logic: the share is down massively so surely it must go back up. Think I’ll pass on that one.

I said I was pretty confident not that it was a fact - though it is a fact that directors can’t trade close to results.

You were clearly implying they could trade which equally you cannot say is a fact - and I think is probably untrue.

Being suspended means nobody can trade. At times where certain sensitive information is known only to insiders (such as close to results) then those insiders can’t trade. Pretty confident this would qualify as such a time. Don’t think it’s me who’s looking silly.

“I’d be more worried that at less than 6p a share no director deals have taken place, obviously no confidence as far as their concerned.”

Not worried at all about that as I’m pretty sure that directors can’t buy (or sell) in this situation.

@bullbears - regardless of whether 'Karreta Advisors' are a 'credible' outfit or not the numbers they use don't do them any favours. The second headline bullet point, and a key reason for their assessment, is that "Interim FY12/2022 results highlighted the company was generating free cash flow". This was not the case and nor was it 2021 where they show a positive figure of $174m. If the free cash was really that good I'd be a lot more optimistic but then again CINE probably wouldn't even be in Chapter 11 at all if their figures were accurate. Unfortunately they're not.

Their projected figures are also much higher than CINE themselves are projecting.

Btw - another error is that the numbers are shown in £'s whereas they are actually in dollars.

Looks like they have just pulled numbers off a third-party site without doing any DD themselves or have simply mangled the numbers that they have picked up. Either way it doesn't appear a very credible analysis to me.

AB - tbh I've given on immersion etc. If anything happens it will be a bonus otherwise I think your summing up of the options was pretty spot on - if somewhat depressing.

Perhaps can be summed up as a white knight or BTC rally - or bust.

"So what's the trade underneath it with a minus for the same amount?"

It's the one he conveniently hasn't mentioned. A perfect example of his misrepresentation of numbers and one that is so easy to see. Luckily most people seem to be wised up to it to now so best perhaps to just let him chat endlessly to himself.

Exactly so Jez, they had to pay it back this month and so are paying it back out of necessity. Would probably have been curtains had they not.