Member Info for Hexam

Fair enough but if it was a 1.4m buy would you be suggesting it's potentially a bad sign that big buy orders were being sold into?

That's the case AB but a few days ago the same site was predicting a 3% increase. I think it has turned and am expecting difficulty to fall by the time it is reset but of course still time for the trend to reverse.

"An individual just dumped 1.4 million shares. Wow"

Don't think Mags will be highlighting that one somehow.

The adjustment is directly related to the rate the previous block was mined though. For example if it takes exactly 14 days then the difficulty is unchanged. So you don’t have to wait as can get get a very good idea by looking at the moving average together with how quickly they are mining through the current block.

My own interpretation is that hashrate is now on the turn i.e. it has plateaued over the last week or so and has just begun to drop and we’ll start seeing difficulty begin to fall at the next assessment. It’s not dramatic though (yet).

They said they were seeking to implement a de-leveraging transaction, facilitated by the $1.9bn, and that it “is expected that any de-leveraging transaction will result in very significant dilution of existing equity interests in the Group and there is no guarantee of any recovery for holders of existing equity interests.”

So yes, a D4E seemed pretty nailed on to me at the time but not absolutely certain. For full text see RNS on September 7th and interpret as you will.

Of course since then the prospect of a sale has increased by order of the judge so this option is also now in play though it is not clear what this will mean for existing shareholders. Otherwise the de-leveraging transaction they were seeking appears very much on track.

“A form of bankruptcy. Bankruptcy protection. Oh my wolf is all in on spinning this.”

Wolf is correct actually. It’s called Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. It’s not called Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection or Chapter 11 Protection Against Bankruptcy.

It’s just not ‘bankruptcy’ as we would normally understand it in the UK.

So it is in bankruptcy proceedings but the label isn’t the important thing, it’s what it actually means that is. Under Chapter 11 they have a chance to get back OUT of bankruptcy proceedings (which you wouldn’t have under Chapter 7) and in my view a very good chance at that. What that may mean to existing shareholders though is a different and more difficult question.

Both those sound about right - will get a better idea when Q3 numbers finally come out.

Snap, I did the same! Think though it’s closer to double current BTC in order to generate cash (unless it’s reduced its cash overheads a lot since Q2 or its power costs considerably since last month).

"I think are market cap
Could reach £2+"

Good grief - and to think I was called a troll :-)

“The troll said (2019 rev was £4B, and not £3B - he is correct) so what was Mkt cap/price back in 2019 based on 30% free shares used for trading! it was about $4b/ 220p. Correct, check.

Therefore, with £3B+ Rev this year - what should the mkt/price be, based on 30% free shares.............................? and then would should the intrinsic value be. It does not take genius here”

And it doesn’t take a genius to spot the 30% is rubbish and the rest of the argument is flawed. The company wasn’t in Chapter 11 then and wasn’t facing ‘very significant dilution’ - CINE’s words not mine and whilst not certain it was talked about as likely.

Yes, IF CINE comes out of Ch11 AND without dilution, or even without significant dilution, the 5p today will look ridiculous and will but be just a distant memory.

Let’s hope so but that’s clearly not the market’s view at the moment.

Haha - I see you’re quoting the assets numbers that if you had spent any decent length of time on this board you would know have been disproven. Just look at the accounts or history of TR-1s. HSBC do not own 20%, the HL money is actually PI money and Polaris sold out months ago to name but three errors in those numbers.

Yes revenue is back to $3bn but 2019 was over $4bn and the company themselves do not expect to get back to that level for at least 2 years.

And you mention all the profit figures except the one that really matters i.e. they made an overall loss of $300m in H1. To be fair you did include the fact that they burned $144m of cash.

I’m interested in CINE recovering and hoping the sp does really well from here but I just prefer to base my decisions on the truth rather than your fantasy economics.

“can't handle the truth”

Try telling some and we’ll see if I can handle it.

- 70% of shares are NOT held by institutions and insiders
- you don’t value companies like CINE on multiples of revenue (certainly not 5x or 10x)
- $3bn is not back to 2019 revenue levels, that was over $4bn

And those were just some of your porkies from just one post. You just make it up as you go along.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about do you?

Well, I'm tired of commenting on your nonsense and correcting your errors but if others are daft enough to take anything you say seriously then more fool them.

HC - It may well be a smart move (I don't know Corz's financials well enough nor recognise the numbers you posted).

One word of caution though is that although I've never shorted a stock either my understanding is that if the shares get suspended and it goes into a protracted end game (via bankruptcy procedures etc.) then you could be waiting a while for your winnings (it will eventually though payout on 0p). Hopefully someone can confirm, if you don't already know yourself, if there is a danger of getting stuck if you don't exit quick enough.

@bullsbears - I don't see why a company can't re-enter Chapter11 again but I imagine everything will be that much harder second time around (once bitten, twice shy...).

But I don't see this being likely for them. Although CINE themselves don't expect to be making money over the next year they should in time be profitable again and I don't see how they can exit Chapter 11 unless all the key players are confident their prospects are good enough to avoid future problems.

I'm still very much of the view that some kind of dilution will be part of that process but once they are out it should be for the foreseeable future and we'll have enough of a stake left in the business to benefit.

The latest financial projections included a specific line for the estimated "Cash flow impact from location closures" and I presume this includes all elements of cash flow (lost revenues and all cost savings). The overall impact they expect is a benefit of around $2.5m per month. Quite small in the scheme of things but welcome nonetheless.

They expect the overall business to be cash flow negative up to July 2023 but although the balance sheet is still very weak they should have enough funds now (especially with the extra $150m of lending) to see that period through if there is no sale in the meantime.

I’d give it to Christmas max personally if BTC stays at this level or lower. Can’t see them all, or even most, lasting until spring. It’s not just whether they can sustain losses in terms of just their cash, but other things too - particularly lenders who see the value of their collateral nose-diving and profit disappeared - I suspect covenants will come into play for some if not already.

You could be right though as no-one will want to blink first however sensible that might be.

Based on the blocks mined so far (nearly half-way through the cycle) it's actually projected to go up nearly 3%. This won't allow much for most recent drop in BTC though so suspect it may reverse by the time the next difficulty level is set. If it doesn't it means all miners will just suffer that little bit more.

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/difficulty-chart

Hi Jeff, this video is quite old and was discussed a while ago and whilst I agree with him that a recovered/rescued CINE is worth a lot more than the mcap currently suggests his method is absolutely bonkers and you will find nothing like it in the real world. In addition the cash flows he is basing it on are not correct.

The bit he is right on though is that the valuation should be based on expected future cash flows and this is what prospective buyers and the lenders will be doing but he has just gone about it in a bizarre and overcomplicated way. A much more straightforward way is to simply apply a multiple to an expected future earnings figure. So for CINE it is not hard to imagine them getting back to $200m to $400m annual profit. Apply a typical multiplier of 10 and you get $2 to $4bn.

This is VERY crude and any suitors, and particularly the lenders, will have access to much better data, projections and models and will probably do actual cash flow projections and value those and under various scenarios (as will CINE). They will also allow for the debt as appropriate.

Upshot is that those values will determine how much any buyer is willing to pay or on what terms the lenders might swap debt for equity or pursue other options. Crucially it will also determine what's left for us.

For example if the lenders valued the business, debt-free, at $10bn then the obvious move for them would be to let the business just carry on and we'd all be quids in. On the other hand if they only came up with $1bn then their best bet is probably just to wind it down and get whatever than can from the assets and we'd get nothing. It is much more likely though to be somewhere in between which raises a prospect of D4E or a sale (or a combination of things).

We just don't know and which is why the sp is so low. Bankruptcy is still a possibility but so is an sp of 50p+ if CINE comes out completely unscathed but there are many more possibilities in between and which in my view are far more likely.

It's also made more complicated obviously by there not being just one lender but many.

“And you can’t make a cinema into stupid housing”

Bizarre statement - why on earth not?

Anyway, not that important as real questions are why would anybody buy CINE with so much debt to take on board (means effective price would have to be at least $5bn for all of it) and if they do will any of it come to us?

It won’t necessarily be our get out of jail free card but like many of the other numerous possibilities it might well be. We’re a long way though I think from finding out and no amount of hype or doom posted on this board will change that or the end result for us.