Member Info for HereKittyKitty

If it goes through they will be cashed out to your account at 6.20 should you not sell them

Their last rating was:

12-Apr-24 BUY Target 890

Yet …

“The Darktrace Directors, who have been so advised by Jefferies and Qatalyst Partners as to the financial terms of the Acquisition, consider the terms of the Acquisition to be fair and reasonable.”

Well my forecast was pretty good 😇🤣 💥

Yep that’s why I took the money as it could easily fall through again and if it doesn’t it’s 620 so no brainer - if it falls through I’ll buy back in at 500

WAY undervalued but hopefully it falls through again & I can buy back in 😇 otherwise thanks for the 3rd gift you’ve given me Darktrace

What poor timing 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Agree with both points 👍👍

Cadian Capital Management, LP 0.53%

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BNYK8G86/

The question is are Crowd overpriced & S1 right priced or somewhere in the middle?

Either way its an upside of 50% to 360%

Sentinel One is similar ARR at $724M vs Dark $731M

They are 9.25x ARR

So easily Dark is 50% off its lowest US competitor

Bringing SP to 773

Typo that should be 6x which makes it 2394 which makes you RIGHT!

Crowd is trading at 28x ARR

Dark is trading at 14x

Taking just that metric ignoring profit and noting Dark has 41% of the customers of Crowd

Like for like the SP should be 1026

I think £23 is too high but from a comparison a valid comment

I did a comparison to loads of other SaaS companies a while back showing ARR to valuation multipliers and back then Dark was 700-1100 low end with a realistic 1200 fair value (by comparison). Revenue is stronger now so I need to redo that. Would love 2300 but feel 700 is about right for current performance but forward looking or buyout it certainly must be in the 1000-1500 range.

Https://uk.investing.com/equities/darktrace-consensus-estimates

Here's a UK version https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/gb:dark/forecast

If you look at the current price it is the same as it is in £ they just have not changed character ie. it shows current price 510.60

Interesting WSJ Analyst Consensus shows BUY with 513 low, 700 mid (where I believe is fair value) & 1118 high

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/UK/XLON/DARK/research-ratings

A takeover discussion could hit any anytime (like Aug 2022) and it will pop overnight - I'm sitting tight on my holding

All their data on Revenue, ARR, Customer growth, Churn, Forecast growth, Cyber AI Market etc is solid

Beyond Crowdstrike there are many viable actors to bid for such an undervalued business;

Microsoft

IBM

Oracle

EMC

Cisco

Computer Associates

VMWare

Dell

HP

Pal Alto Networks

Okta

Google

Norton

McAfee

Symantec

SentinalOne

Sophos

Trend Micro

At 513p

Market Cap is £3.59B / $4.49B

ARR is at 731.1M

Customers at 9,402

Crowdstrike is sitting at

Market Cap $71.98B

ARR is $2.56B

Customers at 23,019

So Dark has

28.5% of the ARR of Crowd

40.8% of the customers of Crowd

BUT only 16% the valuation of Crowd

Seems like a no brainer buy out for Crowd to add 9,402 customers paying $731.1M a year

or any of their competitors to gain Markey share against Crowd

Link https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/why-darktrace-is-getting-exciting-again

"Analysts continue to claim that Darktrace stock is being undervalued compared to US peers"