Member Info for HereKittyKitty

$7.75

@ 1.25 = £6.20

Variance 1.2 to 1.4

@ 1.2 = £6.46

@ 1.3 = £5.96

@ 1.4 = £5.54

Also in 8-9 months the USD to GBP could easily fluctuate 1.2 to 1.4

$7.75 could easily £5.95 which is why I think it will hover around 600

Unlikely we will see 1.2 lows USD/GBP

A stronger £ isn’t good news for this deal over an 8-9 month period

I bought AA in 2020 when in trouble and talks of takeover started and came and went with withdrawn offer/failed offer

Bought 15 Sold 30

Bought in again 22 Sold 40

Bought in again 22 sold 36

Stopped there but it did go 36 down 32 back 36

Before final sale

Anything can happen here

They state it won’t get through court & vote until late Q3/Q4

4-9 months of fun here

I’ll sure be trading any drops on negative news or share price drifts as people sell (like I did) to get stagnant cash out - why leave it sitting idle for potentially 8 months?

As i previously commented

There are still a few scenarios at play here as they stated Q3/Q4 until its possibly gets done, thus;

1. Alternative offers come through push over 620

2. It fails vote and SP drops 25-35% like 2022

3. It goes to vote and is approved at 620

I sold my entire holding at 620 because if scenario 3 comes to play (high probability) then I've got my cash now vs leaving as dead wood until Q4. It also allows me to jump back in should scenario 2 happen (possible but less likely but could happen). Scenario 1 is the only one I potentially loose on but this is least likely.

We brits love short selling and killing our own companies which is why the LSE is a joke of a market

AA was a great one - did well on that twice

I put in all my sell orders at 620 & they cleared at 08:45

Crazy I can buy back at 601

There are still a few scenarios at play here as they stated Q3/Q4 until its possibly gets done, thus;

1. Alternative offers come through push over 620

2. It fails vote and SP drops 25-35% like 2022

3. It goes to vote and is approved at 620

I sold my entire holding this morning at 620 because if scenario 3 comes to play (high probability) then I've got my cash now vs leaving as dead wood until Q4. It also allows me to jump back in should scenario 2 happen (possible but less likely but could happen). Scenario 1 is the only one I potentially loose on but this is least likely.

Still think this is worth 700-1100 fair value but matching Crowdstrike much more, but as Dark have even said; they are not realising true value listed in UK vs US competitors so I think they have an appetite for scenario 3 to get on US markets where they will get the love and valuation they deserve ...

"UNDERVALUED ON THE MARKET

Panmure Gordon analyst Harvey Robinson said the price did not reflect any significant synergies, and it could trigger interest from a trade buyer such as Palo Alto."

Be interesting next week too see the plethora of Form 8.3 RNSs showing who the major stakeholder voters are

It is mentioned here

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/DARK/thoma-bravo-to-buy-uks-darktrace-for-about-532-billion-4beyzn1ebhci2zl.html

Should also be noted that not all ThomaBravo deals go through

"Its move private will be seen as a major blow to the London Stock Exchange, where it listed in 2021. The company was seen as a welcome dynamic addition to a market often characterized as less appealing to technology firms than those in the U.S. or Asia, and stacked with “old economy” players, such as miners and oil and gas companies.

Darktrace specifically referenced its belief that it is undervalued in the U.K. as a reason for the sale. In a statement, it said its board believes the firm’s operational and financial “achievements” are not reflected in its valuation and that shares are trading “at a significant discount to its global peer group.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/uk-tech-darling-darktrace-rallies-after-agreeing-5point32-billion-sale-to-private-equity-firm-thoma-bravo.html

They are a huge Investment Fund that has a significant portfolio of companies.

Net is they see it is very undervalued on the LSE & based on ARR, growth etc they can realise a higher forward value from their growth that alas will never be realised as a UK plc

Its $7.75 meaning £6.20 which is why I let it all go at 620

I gave data driven factual context to what I believed was a fair price so stand by all the data I shared

Being Captain Hindsight is so very easy to do when not sharing any insights

This is what a chat board is for; sharing insights, factual data, thoughts etc to have meaningful adult conversations

But hey some just like to dig at others as that's all they have to do

Net is I've been here from start & worked this industry for decades; I've bought and sold through the journey & it has done me well

If somebody buys shares based on an unknown stranger saying it will be 100x next month then I guess the answer to will you walk off the cliff has been answered

Anyone who makes significant monetary decisions from reading an unknown strangers post on a chat board really shouldn't be investing

My personal next buyout target is ASOS as UK plc gets bought up

It’s says third or fourth quarter in the RNS

Took 3-4 weeks for this to fall through last time but this seems stronger worded & probably a move to delist in US so easy for a US company to buy vs being involved with the useless London Stock Exchange