RE: Gil - Proactive Investors9 Apr 2019 07:20
I have been through this a lot in the past few days/weeks. I found it difficult to understand the reasoning.
Jethro, is lower Tertiary. Joe, upper Tertiary. Both have over a 40% COS which is incredibly high for wild catting.
Jethro is the first drill. They are obliged, as part of the agreement they have with Guyana, to drill all the way down on their first well and test the Cretaceous . It is a stipulation that they test the Cretaceous . Even though there are no prospects high lighted on their 3D mapping in the Cretaceous underneath Jethro. Sounds a bit nuts and a waste of time and money but it is part of the licence agreement it seems. C'est La Vie! So they will drill down and find nothing.
Lying underneath Joe, it looks like there could potentially be a Cretaceous prospect called Rappu. As it stands, they don't plan to drill down into it. I suspect where they are drilling Joe is an optimal spot for hitting Joe in the Tertiary but probably sub optimal if they drilled down and had a go at hitting Rappu in the Cretaceous .
I also understand that plans could change mid drill....and they have loads of financial running room if so.
What is clear to me is that Tullow really understand Tertiary plays. Tullow and ECO provided Exxon with the 3D for Hammerhead because they could see the structure clearly and wanted Exxon to drill it and prove up the Tertiary play for them. A successful result had massive implications across Orinduik. They did and what a fantastic result for everyone.
Tullow have been drilling out Tertiary plays off shore West Africa very successfully, same geology on either side of the Atlantic hence they are very good at reading Tertiary plays on 3D.
Meanwhile Repsol, Tullow and Total are drilling Kanuku next door at the same time. They are drilling a Cretaceous prospect which will have a read across for Orinduik (watch the Tullow video that itsyou posted the other day at the times he highlighted). This is pretty handy and will have affected their decision making a wee bit on Orinduik.
From the partners perspective, ECO needs to hit oil with one of these two wells as does Tullow. ECO because they are a minnow and a hit would multiply the value of the company several fold and Tullow need a hit as it will allow them multiple financial avenues to appraise, develop and produce the block.
The two prospects chosen have the best COS. Best bang for your buck and all that.