RE: IMHO...this is where Sir Tony ....14 May 2018 11:52
We need to see what sanctions will be applied and what the exemptions will be. WSG business does not break the pre 2015 sanctions. Nor does the supply chain or the financing.
The unknowns need to be clarified. They are simple. What are the new level of sanctions. Lots of rhetoric swirling around now. There is no way the sanctions will be as strong as in the past because the other partners to the agreement are fighting to preserve it. The US are on their own this time. Still powerful because of their grip on the financial system and the banking system in particular.
This is why WSG are financing the project via Germany. Germany have been doing business with Iran right through the sanctions period. Plenty of business did not fall under the sanctions umbrella. A number of German banks are happy to provide banking services to companies that do business in Iran because their exposure to US markets is limited.
May has already talked to Trump about exempting UK businesses that are doing business in Iran. Civil servant talks between the two sides will take place shortly. The Europeans, Russians and Chinese are al kicking back at the US stance. Watch out for the Foreign Ministers meeting in Brussels tomorrow. I expect a unity statement to follow.
So,
1/. WSG comply already to the pre 2015 sanctions
2/. The UK government is campaigning for exemptions and I am sure what WSG provides will be in the mix of that haggle.
3/. Lots of fight back/kick back from EU and China and Russia
4/. We have been working hand in glove with HGM to make sure we are compliant
5/. We are v well politically connected.
Once the unknowns are known , the suppliers will know if they can follow through and do business with WSG/IRAN or we have to find alternative suppliers. I think the politics will become clearer this week and the detail will get resolved over the coming months. To me it looks like a 3-6 month process but WTFDIK