Member Info for Herbieridesaga

Hi Laks - I just know the 100 day rule is the only one that ever worked when I modelled it - as others report. I modelled it for every share on the LSE for every day for a year and amongst the divi paying shares it worked - and for the non divi paying shares it didn't. Some claim 80-90% accuracy with it but I think that's dellusional. I say about 75% success rate on divi payers and maybe 55% on non divis. Anyway it snot Appl that concerns me. I'm playing with ETFs and ETCs since the correction started - and I've been reading everyones views... subject of next post.

Does that qualify as a collapse to you Laks (does by my rules) ? So if I understand your reasoning, and the sell signal is valid, is this bonfire night ?

Shareprofits hate crew, mind you thsy support Alba and thats stuck as well. Stil l Id rather have the chance to move profits from one to another than have the all explode at the same time.

Me as well... and what we need to chivvy it along is a falling dji but more importantly some diging up and some selling of dug up stuff.

I have been told new CEOs come in and make thiings sound bad blaming the previous team so tbey can then say how wonderful they were in turning things around. Just the fear of that will cause some selling even if it doesnt happen. Thats why I took my profit this morning. Expect rewards in 2 or 3 years imho. Company wont change but story will develop.

Erm - Nasdaq down over 4% - that's where your candle is ... Who invented that story about lack of funding. Brilliant, get a paper to invet some absolute twaddle and destabilise a stock we desparately need to be successful as a country. You would never find other countries inflicting these sorts of blows upon themselves just for a quick buck... Game over for FTSE tomorrow methinks - this will be the moment of capitulation. Not today - after the depths of dispair tomorrow.

NG was a good buy you see... Longs on the major indicies whoever very risky IMHO at the moment. Better short. Now waht did you say about shorts being dangerous ??

Thanks Laks. I only seek your opinion because I note you are often correct - its my call what I do. Same with the late Larry E who died sometime (maybe 2 years - I can't recall - ago). At the time he made his calls the DOW was an "overbought" 20k according to the experts - so I call it reaching 27k+ a good call... I've been trading an amember on here for years. Finally, NG is a hell of a lot less volative than most AIM stocks - and a fair number of FTSE350 stocks - and I don't see it going bust unless or until we have a Canada style solar flare event - which we would get some warning about thanks to the British satellite parked between us and the sun who's name escape me, so I'm happy to follow trends on that one - which is my choice. Goind well today anyway. ATB.

New name - cynical me - death mask (ref King Tut)

That would be extremely pleasant - especially if numpty nuts is correct and we get the chance to top up at 9p LOL

Think you didn't quiet understood what I was saying (probaby my fault !). Not sure I totally understand your answers either, so for clarifiaction. I think you said we are in an ew4 correction and ew5 for a higher high (30k) will follow, which means gold retraces. You seem to be looking on a longer cycle than me ? Hence I think I'm confused and need some clarification. Just to clarify, it was Larry Edelson who predicted 30k Dow - I did not believe that would happen, nor gold crash as he said, so I feel the recent +27k is close enough to 30k to already be an outstanding call. As we now have Trump, Corbyn and Brexit - his call on chaotic politics and the war cycle seem a good call as well. So I have to heed his other predictions as well. Just to clarify, I was saying the Dow wasn and still has an overvalued P/E, the FTSE was undervalued at 7700 and is more so now. Even with a Brexit train wreck, the FTSE 100 must be strong due to its base in foreign companies and earnings, - its not really an index of the UK economy at all - JMHO. Seeing your comments, I think you are predicting the Dax to crash next (clarification requested)... sounds sensible to me... once we Breixt to our own destruction, the Germans, Dutch and French will be left to pay all the bills in Europe, and that would crush anyone. So yes, if you're saying short the Dax - which I can in my HL account - your endorsement would make me feel more confident in doing just that - though I would own the decision if it backfired - not your fault. Got to watch for a collapsing pound whie doing this though... One other question. Are you calling NG. on a bull run now ? Makes sense to me as it seems to have bounced off a double bottom. Have a good weekend. Thanks as always.

Yes so the top and the tail of the formation confirmed good - but then that nodding donkey keeps going in Kimmeridge bay - 100 years of oil production there - never was anything to prove really.

oops - computer problem - sent three times - a holy member - makes you think

I suppose the argument goes the most unloved shares are often the ones that bounce hardest, and the unexpected moves normally happen in a falling chaotic market. Well first and third boxes ticked - and the season of miracles will follow on from the devil worshipper consumer event and the gobal warming ill directed anti establishment celebration - and of course the festival of lights so somewhere from all that may come your miracle. Better than any rationale market call at the moment.

I suppose the argument goes the most unloved shares are often the ones that bounce hardest, and the unexpected moves normally happen in a falling chaotic market. Well first and third boxes ticked - and the season of miracles will follow on from the devil worshipper consumer event and the gobal warming ill directed anti establishment celebration - and of course the festival of lights so somewhere from all that may come your miracle. Better than any rationale market call at the moment.

I supose the argument goes the most unloved shares are often the ones that bounce hardest, and the unexpected moves normally happen in a falling chaotic market. Well first and third boxes ticked - and the season of miracles will follow on from the devil worshipper consumer event and the gobal warming ill directed anti establishment celebration - and of course the festival of lights so somewhere from all that may come your miracle. Better than any rationale market call at the moment.

Ooops - 1280 - dyslexia - just like my son - Oxbrdige maths/science candidates both of us - geometric not linguistic.

Hi Laks, just caught your charts from Monday on gold. Thanks ma'am. So 2180 by 1st Nov then all bets off. I've just worked out how to short in my H&L SIPP so I wil be joining in the fun. Did you ever look at Larry Edleson's predictions ? He said the dow near 30k and gold to new lows before a crash and gold to 4000-5000. He also predicted the cycles of war and a whole lot else we're a coming together to make for a right royal mess (not that Yankees do royal - apart from as a photo fantasy). Anyway, I also saw some predict down to 15k next - though I'ne sure the late LE was preicting lower than that. You clearly do not expect it at 15k by Nov the first - but do expect a third drop at least. I am of the Buffet views about total capitulation and despair are needed - and that almost always means an irration flight to gold - and that's not 1280 - and that's not Dow at whatever you feel - 24/22/18 - so how's about this. Quiet often you do see an EW5. You seem to be predicting an EW5 (they can be down as well as up). What I have seen in the past is an amost perfect technical EW5 can then be the first leg of a much bigger EW5 formation. So if Nov 1st was a pause point (for the end of EW5/wave 1 of macro EW formation) I reckon this could be the big one - 3 months later another catastrophic fall of simlar magnitude 27 to 20, say 24 to 17, then say 20 to 15 - the other punters prediction for 6 months form now. Now call me old fashioned but I think Dow 15k is a sensible p/e ratio - where FTSE 7k is actually a bit light weight for current earnings (H&L saying the only two previous occurances of such low p/es being about 1916 and about 1942) - and this doesn't feel like a situation of quiet that level of threat. So the FTSE has been decoupled rom the DOW and DAX forever - is this the time of reckong I wonder ?? Your reviews always valued. Hope you found my ramblings amusing.

When I sold up my employee share scheme shares, this (with DOM and ABC) was the first share I bought - back.in 2009 - and the only 1 to go up in the first year ! Worth less now than it was then (unlike the others that multibagged). That is why I started trading, but this is a share for the right season and this certainly appears to be the right season for it.

Oh yes - how odd...