RE: Posting from my local library30 Jan 2020 17:23
I was out travelling today, saw your post but it couldn't reply. The giste of it is 170 dead, 128 recovered - rest still ill - and getting better doesn't count for much because its the cough that leads to bronchitus that leads to pneumonia that is doing most of the kiiling. So the kill ratio could be anything from the latest quote I saw from an "expert" of 3.5% (up form 2) to this failry constant final outcome 55%ish. Second, reports from health workers inside China and a commentator on CNBC last yesterday morning put the numbers then at half a million infections - not 6000ish. Third, when thei started - 20 miles from the only BSL4 site in China where the US suspected in 2017 they were doing bioweapon research and had poor bio security there were 42 victims, including the mystery 13. The nursing staff traced most to the foodhall but not the mystery 13. One nurse blogged that when she went back to the records of the mystery 13 they had been ripped out of the register... Of course no one is going to accuse them of that now - it wouldn't help. would it ? Then look at the Chinese response. Before there were 100 victims, then had closed off 5 towns and were building "hospitals" (or is that morges) ridiculously quickly. Socail media has shown roads bricked up and tunnels closed up with stones, sand and cement.... Then the top man describes this as a "grave" time for China...wtf ! Then there's all the images we saw on social media now appearing on TV. Then this mornings interview on the Today program where at the end - without promting for a last comment - the Chinese rep said a few last words ending in "we must all work together to save mankind" - another wtf moment. The people who relly know what this is are scared ****less by it - have no doubt. However that is not the immediate reason the market has reacted today. The market has reacted because nearly all the complex technology supply chains visit China one way or another - on the wya to making your car, fridge, computer or anthing else for that matter, and they've just been shut down for another week. Given all of the above - I should add "at least" but I'm just sticking faithfully to what the big parties said. Finally, just conjecture, but I do think the very top honchos (and even Boris) have been told the score, and that is why we are all flying our people home to quarentine. Why would you insist on quarentine for something that was just "the flu". Do you see where I'm coimng from yet ?
Sign In
Follow the stocks
