Break-even30 Sep 2018 23:11
The growth rate between H2 2017/18 and H1 2018/19 concerns me. Although test volumes increased by 21%, revenue increased by 7%, which means that revenue per test is falling, presumably because of the greater proportion of international sales. The increase in test volumes of 21% was also lower than the 27% growth rate reported between H1 2017/18 and H2 2017/18.
Growth in test volumes has been slowing and so has the average revenue per test.
We need more new contracts to come onstream.
With a cost base of c.£10m per annum (it will inevitably increase from the £9m to 31/3/18 because of the appointment of Rees and Jefferys as well as the expected growth) we need sales of roughly £19m to £20m just to break even, or 180,000 tests.
This is not going to happen until y/e 31/3/20 at the very earliest and most likely y/e 31/3/21.
My forecast for loss before any exceptionals to 31/3/19 is £4-5m. This is not a small loss as Loserfrith claims.
Why are we buying stock from Illumina when our service with them is not starting until 2020? Seems ridiculous to me!
I cannot see Illumina buying us until we have established a service with them.
I keep on holding although I am very disillusioned. I even bought more at 13p last week because I thought with the settlement secured we could move on and the future was brighter, but I feel royally shafted by the Board.
It's easy to blame finncap but the Board needs to take responsibility for this farce. They should have known better.
Let's see what tomorrow brings but I won't be selling for now.