RE: Powers that be20 Sep 2023 17:04
Boringboy, what you have just said is not true. That was and is your take on it.
1. Tin Hill is about 51 hectares
2. ALR's total acreage is now about 550 hectares from what is in the public domain
3. RRR has confirmed that other licences are in train; so total acreage should be greater.
All of that is factual. However good or bad Tin Hill is, it is less than 10% of the total acreage.
4. RRR has confirmed that all acreage was sampled before submitting the applications
5. RRR has confirmed that it is moving to EIAs on all the licenced areas
The rules in Zim changed. If you listen to the interview posted earlier, Andrew Bell states that there are or were only two approved plants to which to sell in Zim post the rule changes.
6. So the rule changes took the quick and easy local sales option off the table.
7. It was always the intention and, RRR has publicly stated it, that the local sales was short term to generate cash flow and then to start to beneficate for export and higher prices.
8. Whether sales are local or sales are for export is irrelevant to the point you are addressing.
9. The point is the discount to the DCF or NPV10 necessary to secure a sale of the assets.
10. Lets suppose that based on the grades announced today and the previous comments about the extension to depth and further pegmatites that the NPV10 for Tin Hill alone is $230 mil. What could you sell it for today? My view would be maybe $30mil, possibly $20mil for a quick sale.
11. The FEQ report addressed only Tin Hill, it did not address the other licences. So if FEQ did the same exercise across all the licences what would the NPV10 be? It would be a very large number but to sell them, we would have to accept the same or a larger discount as on Tin Hill.
12. So keeping the licences maximises the returns but involves other risks. So which is better $20mil now for Tin Hill or $200mil over 10 years?
13. The only to get it right is to use 20/20 hindsight.
DYOR