Member Info for HelloSanDiego

JoeyDiamond - "The first half of the original Merck trial had very dubious data, 14% hospitalisation in placebo arm is just one example (Most other trials it was on average 4%)"

I think you're mistaken.

It's complicated to accurately compare. But if you take a look at the links I've provided below, you'll see that on November 15th 2020, a total of 1.39 million people in the UK had tested positive for covid and 200,773 had been hospitalized with it by that same date.

That's around 14%.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom

Manifesto - "They could know before SNG that a TO offer is incoming..."

If you're suggesting that's why they just bought more shares, I think you're wrong. Because I'm pretty sure that would be the definition of insider trading.

I think it's more likely they've intended since February to go to 30% and knew they could help support the share price if they did the last few percent in fits and starts.

I don't see how a joint-venture would be a good thing for shareholders.

Any company risking $50 million on a P3 trial would understandably want the vast majority of the profits. So all the time a platform trial is a possibilty, I'd be against a joint-venture or out licensing.

Andybe4, wasn't this you at 16:12 on the 18th January 2022?:

"When we look at SNG’s future, I see the £5 mark as SNG barely even getting started."

I'm not sure you should be dishing out advice tbh. We get it, you're angry and want to make everyone else angry with you. My advice: Watch Frozen, sing along with the songs and keep rewatching it until you can just let it go.

It would take $40-50 million for them to run their own, large-scale P3 trial.

That's a lot, but I think it's less than Polygon already has invested. So with a potential billion dollar annual market for this drug it's possible someone's already decided that that trial is going to happen one way or another.

There are a few ways this could turn around. But I have no idea how likely any of them are.

Thanks Manifesto.

Manifesto - "I hope we have applied for the Flu trial..Not long to wait as it starts 4 weeks today!!!"

Where did you read that? The only start dates I've seen were just some unverified rumours from Shoots on ADVFN.

Have there been any results released recently for any other drugs that were awaiting them from the Activ trials?

I'm wondering if this might be a sign they're gearing up to get SNG001 on the STRIVE trial imminently.

This article (linked below) appears to confirm the STRIVE trial will involve 240 sites.

It's the first new piece of solid information I've found on STRIVE since it was mentioned by Dr. Adam in July. It's an article from a couple of weeks ago on Vanderbilt University Medical Centre's website about one of their staff. It says he "is science committee co-chair for the STRIVE initiative, which involves leading the scientific direction of the 240-site international program."

It also confirms they're referring to The Strategies and Treatments for Respiratory Infections and Viral Emergencies (STRIVE) initiative and not one of the other STRIVE trials.

https://news.vumc.org/2022/09/22/self-named-co-principal-investigator-of-vanderbilts-clinical-and-translational-science-award/

Brand - "if we had something "ready to start" why do you assume we would know about it?"

Common sense and experience. It's something the company would want investors to know.

Brand - "Why does it look unlikely HSD?"

Because it takes time to devise a trial method, get it approved and get it underway. If we don't already have something almost ready to start, I don't see how it can start this winter.

Brand - "Nothing has changed"

I think that's the problem. We were told there was a good chance we'd be on another platform trial this winter, and with winter round the corner that now looks very unlikely.

Spot on?

He was advising people to buy at 18p yesterday.

Andy - "Buy in the 18’s. With positive long covid data, this should go in to the 30’s."

If you think this will climb 70% when we get data that shows what we were already told last week, you're way more optimistic than the rest of us Andy.

Is it a good idea to take investment advice from Andybe4?

Does anyone know what price he invested at?

Manifesto - "But I think most on here got the point."

The point you made was that you don't really know what you're talking about. You said that there's nothing negative in borrowing to get a company through the research point to commercialisation, and you're entirely wrong about that.

Manifesto - "Show me an AIM company with no debt?????"

If you can't find any by yourself you don't deserve to be taken seriously on here.

I think the recent GMP GDP vacancy either means that Paul Tomlinson's leaving or they've got another platform trial lined up.

I don't see how it could mean anything else, so I'm hoping we'll get some more information one way or another on Thursday.

MrCosts - "Cash balance in my view can only be around £10M now. "

You might have got that one right. We'll know in a couple of days.

MrCosts - "Polygon will know as much as we do..."

Not really. Polygon has experts and analysts who will understand the data and trial procedures better than us. They'll also have access to better research, e.g. what is actually going on inside the hospitals where trials are being conducted.