RE: Why do people bother to buy now?25 Jul 2025 14:42
I like reading Kim Clays posts on ADVFN-super clever.
I presume he should be interested in the risks as he's investing other people's money. Most investors are not familiar with the details of oil and gas. There is I believe a tendency to post big numbers to feed the shareholder demand for showing "upside".By example: 621 bbls/day of "open hole" flow. This is not a real reflection of sustainable production flow rates, which as we have seen were then stated as 140 then 80-100 then 65 at Moccasin. As per my previous post the probability of all three wells encountering moveable hydrocarbons is 21%, that just maths. The probability that all three wells are commercially successful , if we assume each has an 80% chance of commercial success then the probability that all three are commercially successful is 10.1%. That's pretty high at 80% commercial but as three of the four wells to date have flowed and are at least cash flow positive 80% is probably a good guess. So the aggregate NPV10 of $39mm should be placed in the context of the risk of that particular outcome actually happening.