Member Info for HeadInTheSand

That explains quite a lot, Mirasol. Amid his multiple ID bans, I had noticed FOTH's previous months-long role as the company's PR lackey - or as the John the Baptist to Sando's messiah, if you'd rather - for many months (and thus in some part no doubt responsible for certain PIs getting themselves locked into the UKOG lobsterpot, based on the Weald oil fairytale that was until recently the myth du jour).

Of course he then yo-yoed into the company's foremost critic for a while - Hell having no fury like a shill scorned, perhaps?

But now he's thumping the tub anew regarding Turkey - I wonder what's changed? Regardless, he really doesn't like it when easily verifiable and auditable facts from the recent past are brought up re UKOG though, does he? He'd prefer anyone who'll listen to him to entirely ignore anything that's happened in the past on the sole and facile basis that it is the past and thus immutable.

That strikes me as howlingly naive or more likely deliberately disingenuous on a number of fronts. It is a given that those positive about UKOG are so on the basis of mere supposition, whereas those negative about UKOG are so on the basis of actual but yes, occurred facts.

Regardless, track record and credibility are important. To use an analogy, if Dr Harold Shipman were to magically come back to life and assure me that he was now in fact a brilliant doctor specialising in elderly care, I still wouldn't sign my mother up to his practice. Knowing what one knows for sure is a very telling lodestone, no matter what Ozzy/FOTH would try to have one believe.

Finally Ozzy, I note with wry amusement that you criticise other posters for not "writing cohesive sentences". I would charitably point out that sentences tend to start with capital letters and end with single full stops, so perhaps a look in the mirror would be appropriate. Furthermore, when it comes to cohesiveness, perhaps while educating yourself as to simple punctuation, you might also wish to discover the potential use of the paragraph?

I tend to find the multiple ellipses that Ozzy is bizarrely compelled to use in every post he makes (those are the series of dots, like "...") are actually the only useful and thus most meaningful part of said posts.

The rest of them are just the usual furious yet substance-free and utterly unevidenced ramping BS.

However, I also suspect that Ozzy is actually a genuine PI - just one for whom the penny hasn't dropped yet, despite the mountains of evidence. The ever more threadbare confirmation bias to which he tragically clings like a comfort blanket is clearly a dangerously alluring thing.

In an attempt to return this thread to sanity (some hope, but what the Hell?)...

In 2017, the best ever close of day SP for UKOG was actually 8.975p. That occurred right at at the end of August 2017.

At that particular point in time, UKOG had 3,538 million shares in issue.

Move on to the present day. Right now (and before Sanderson issues any of the extra 8 billion shares he's looking to do), UKOG has 13,218 million shares in issue. So that's already over 3.7 times more than 4 years ago.

Therefore, to achieve the same maximum, dizzying (and in hindsight entirely unjustified) market cap as the company achieved in 2017, the current share price would not get to 11p. Or 8.975p.

Nope - it'd need to get to 2.41p to equal the company's maximum market cap ever. So - not quite the "50+ bagger" that TH2 and the ramp squad are attempting to rope a dope on. They're drawing the most childishly obvious of false equivalencies when they bang on about "a return to 11p" and quote 2017 as "proof" of the likelihood of this.

Of course, all adults in the room should be well aware of this already, but just in case...

(It is the most transparently pathetic of recent ramp attempts, huh?)

gkb, it's hard to ascertain the current cost base. Of course, it all depends what contractual strictures (if any) the lenders put on the £12 million, in terms of what it can be used for.

I would be surprised if the lenders have allowed it to be used for other flights of ANGS fancy, (e.g. any revisit of any Weald oil site for what would seem like the 100th time or any geothermal rainbow chasing). However I would be equally surprised if ANGS needed to attempt a further cash raise via a placing at this stage of proceedings.

nhawan, if you showed any capability of comprehension, you'd see that I am not deramping the share in the least. To the complete contrary, I have more than once stated that I do not expect the share price to move significantly in any direction, unless and until firm news of first gas being pumped is verifiably received.

It's really not a difficult thing to understand and as such, it's odd that you struggle...

As I've said, the likelihood of any EGM that may get called actually achieving any change is vanishingly small. But I hardly think that's the point.

Actually managing to get an EGM called in and of itself puts Sanderson and the UKOG board more on notice than they have ever been that a not insignificant number of investors are with every justification extremely unhappy with their stewardship of UKOG.

Even the possibility of an EGM being called has seemingly already panicked the board into suddenly launching their commitment to purchase a modest amount of monthly shares from July. I mean okay, this is mere window dressing, because all that's actually set to happen is that a small (5-10%) of the board's monthly salary will be used to purchase shares. And of course, the board's monthly salaries continue to be almost entirely financed by PIs, either directly or indirectly - solely because UKOG has next to no worthwhile income stream.

One also has to ask oneself if the amount board's salaries (as almost entirely financed by PIs) are in any way justified in the first place, given performance and track record? But that's a separate issue.

However, the director's share buying commitment is a major, sudden and in my book, effectively forced sea change, since they've never once bought in themselves - a thing which I consider incredibly curious, considering how Sanderson at least has for years continually assured anyone who'd listen that the SP is hugely undervalued against company prospects. One can only wonder in bafflement why he and the UKOG board have never once acted on their own issued assurances and predictions then, if UKOG has always been such an undervalued banker?

Honestly... why don't people get it?

George's last irrelevant puff piece softball paid-for interview (with LSE about a month ago) did nothing for the SP (which was no surprise to anyone - except probably George himself). This latest irrelevant puff piece softball paid-for interview (with Zak this time) is also set to do nothing for the SP.

Last time around, George was clearly startled that the 29th March financing update RNS had zero effect. He'll probably be equally nonplussed this time too.

What George seems utterly incapable (or possibly unwilling) to realise is that after so many months (and in the company's case, so many years) of missed deadlines, massively undercalled cost estimates, failure to achieve every announced assurance, plan or promise - basically unrelieved non-delivery on anything at all - in the eyes of the market, any words or statement issuing from him or or the company are given literally no credibility. Because they've done nothing but cry wolf throughout their history.

Which is why this latest RNS has had no positive effect on the SP whatsoever. George can talk and spin all he likes - it's beyond clear now that the one and only thing the market will set any store at all re ANGS in is the actual start of pumping gas from Poundland. Not another timescale estimate - verified start of production. Period.

And with the financing now accessible, no matter how painful the terms, George and ANGS have now utterly run out of all excuses. So, failing some bizarre attempted additional placing (which would be adding final insult to injury for PIs), in my very firm view, the share price ain't going anywhere dramatic, up or down, until provably commercially viable amounts of gas are flowing. A thing which, if even achievable, I don't expect till late Q1 2022 earliest.

@LSE337/Chris. No offence taken - yours was clearly an honest mistake. As you say, Cyan and Crocqman have explained regs concerning closed periods and director share trading perfectly.

And yes, there's literally no excuse whatsoever for Sandi and his board never to have put their own money in... and no reason for them not to, either. Unless of course they knew the tales they were spinning to the market were less than accurate.

@nomlungu, I have ignored any placing. I would find it literally gobsmacking if at this point ANGS decided it needed to raise even more funds. Especially in the light of the fact that they weren't ever meant to need that £12 million, as they assured us all for six months.

@gkb, you're welcome and agreed. I find it mildly depressing how often it's necessary to point out the glaringly obvious.

@Ocelot, "ANGS has delivered on the most time-consuming element of Saltfleetby, the debt facility..." seriously??? You mean it's finally got hold of the £12 million there was no question of it needing? And it was meant to have secured this by end January? And it was meant to have got to first gas by Q3 last year? And now it's telling us that it might just get to first gas by end 2021? Your continual attempts to polish the unpolishable are now nothing but laughable. I hope you're getting paid enough to stomach making yourself such a permanent figure of ridicule.

@BV, yep. And the market agrees with you. George is clearly viewed by the market as the latest in a long line of ANGS MDs that have cried wolf all too often, hence the pretty much zero reaction to the most recent RNS. The prevalent opinion now is - and entirely justifiably - pump gas or p*ss off with your endless porkies, George.

Missed the point again, DoneK.

Gkb simply and quite correctly points out is that any arrangement or interest fees payable to Mercuria (no matter whether in cash or shares) basically come straight out of the value that would have been deliverable to shareholders. That's primary school arithmetic.

You will presumably remember that between March and September last year, George was assuring investors, new and old, that first gas could be reached before end 2020 and for a mere cost of £2.75 million, all of which ANGS already had. Some will have invested on that basis and other will have chosen not to sell.

...and then ANGS dropped the bombshell. (Surprisingly similar to what it did before regarding Brockham actually).

Perhaps the above may explain why some longterm holders aren't putting out the bunting? And it seems the market as a whole is particularly underwhelmed as well. As before, I suspect the ANGS SP will wobble within a narrow range until we get news of first gas. Being pumped, not "in the next few weeks" or "imminently" or "in the near term" or "in the final furlong". Actually being pumped.

That's the trouble when one's told so many things that have turned out to be howling porkies - nobody will believe a word one says any more - so one has to actually deliver.

Ocelot and the frantic spin... makes me laugh. The word has gone out to the PR Drones...

"Cr*p! They're claiming to be within inches of the 5% needed - and that's all they need to call an EGM! We thought that we'd be able to mug PIs off with announcement of the compulsory Directors' share buying deal! Dammit! PIs must have spotted that all we were doing is using their own money to buy shares for ourselves! Quick Ocelot! Muster the boiler room and start spinning as hard as you can!"

It is of course a given that the past is the unchangeable past, that hindsight is an exact science and that "we are where we are".

However, when attempting to project future possibilities, it would be equally utterly bizarre not to pay some attention and ascribe some value to track record, form and the amount (or not) of earned credibility. That's also every bit as self-evident, no matter what some might wish one to think. Pushing for the past to be entirely ignored is just another hustle.

Sageman, understandable. The factors you're ascribing weight to are to me all reasonable and given your specific position, I don't doubt the common sense of your "wait and see" approach.

I'm not in much of a different position to you. My own B/E is just north of 1.4p, but like you, the amount involved is not of any real significance. Where we do differ is in terms of likelihood of delivery (although the past is of course the unchangeable past, in terms of making future projections, I ascribe a stronger weight to historic track records and credibility as a base point).

On that basis, I have a pretty much permanent sell order on my entire but modest holding triggering at 1p. That'd represent an irritating 30% loss, but the pound note amount is irrelevant - my own personal conviction is that it's the best I'll be able to do in any near- or mid-term future.

Sageman, that was pretty much my point.

George has finally got his funds, so now there can be no possible additional excuses for the company to see if first gas can be achieved. That is a good thing in my book, because ANGS has now run out of places to hide and is obliged to deliver without further prevarication.

I'd say it's already plainly obvious that the market has taken a decidedly guarded view on today's RNS - entirely unsurprisingly, given the company's currently undeviating record of non-delivery under both past and present management. As you say (and pretty much as it always has been), it remains all about actually producing something revenue-earning to a level that exceeds costs (hardly rocket science).

On this basis - and in direct contradiction to the PR drones - I now expect the SP to stay within a fairly tight range until at least December, by which point there should be more information supplied as to whether the latest revised and sketchy estimate of "first gas by end 2021" is liable to be met. As I've said, the fact that so much of what's needed to meet that l;atest indistinct target is still in the "design" stage, as made clear by today's RNS, does give me cause for concern. However presumably this will become clearer over time and I can't see anything else on the horizon that's liable to reasonably positively or negatively affect the current SP in any meaningful way...

...of course, barring unforeseen and bizarre potential own goals, such as JTP again "accidentally" lending all his shares to some youthful East European blonde or something. But failing that, I suspect the SP is in for a fair few months of stability

Ocelot states: "We all know that UKOG's current share price and market cap do not correspond to management's ambitions for the company."

This is simply not true. We do not "all know" that.

In my view - and all available evidence to date supports this - the "management's ambitions for the company" very clearly seem to be nothing more than to view the company as a gravy train, paying them ongoing and eye-wateringly fat annual salaries that are utterly undeserved, given the undeviating record of non-delivery, dilution and destruction of shareholder value.

That's what I know, solely based on auditable and verifiable evidence - I pay no attention to the endless "jam tomorrow... this time for sure... honest!" fairytales spewed out by Sando, to be vigorously spun and copy n pasted by his small contracted band of PR drones. And on that basis, the management's actual "ambitions for the company" continue to be achieved.

Right then. George has finally able to get his hands on the extra £12 million - which it must be remembered he spent six whole months assuring shareholders that no extra funding was needed to get Poundland to first gas, but let's draw a veil over that.

Despite the company's previous misinformation and miscalculations, in terms of ANGS now being able to carry on, this can only be seen as a good thing... if only because the alternative would have been to fold. What the availability of this funding also does do - and this is more positive for long-suffering ANGS PIs - is entirely remove the possibility of George and his board coming up with any more excuses for their currently undeviating non-delivery.

I'll note that the adviser fees paid out for securing this financing seem to be just under £200k (unsurprisingly in shares, not cash - ANGS needs to hang onto all that to cover ongoing and impending costs).

Two final points worth picking out:-

Today's RNS doesn't give huge confidence in the latest revised estimate of first gas by end 2021. A lot of the equipment and infrastructure is clearly stated as still being at the design stage, so in my view, this is likely to slip.

Secondly, I'll be more than interested to see how the market reacts to this RNS in terms of buying volumes and SP movement. It's very early days, but short-term, apart from a no doubt relief-inspired very modest minispike, all that seems to have happened is that the mid-May "drift down" fall has been recovered. So far at least, the SP hasn't even recovered to early April levels, despite today's announcement. I therefore doubt that my sell order is going to get triggered any time soon.

11p and then some? Well by my reckoning, TH2's latest claim is that UKOG is set to become a 50 bagger at the very least.

Of course I don't know if he's factored in Stealin' Steve's issuing of up to 8 billion new shares or not. If he has - and pushing his usual drivel scarily beyond the furthest reaches of insanity, TH2 is instead claiming that UKOG is set to be at least an 80 bagger.

Someone within the PR boiler room needs to have a sharp word. When rampathon attempts reach this degree of swivel-eyed lunacy, they're actually counter-productive to what UKOG's clearly paying for, because they're so obviously laugh-inspiring in their ludicrousness.

"...I was simply using Genel as an example"

Of course you were, Ocelot. I mean, it's not like you have a very long and undeviating track record of quoting misleading information or using completely irrelevant examples in your concerted (and no doubt paid for) campaign to polish the unpolishable, is it?

Mind you, credit where it's due. Although your agenda is still glaringly obvious, when compared to the frankly insane spewings of TH2, you're positively sophisticated in your deliberate disingenuousness.

What's both interesting and amusing is the increasing frenzy of the blatantly obvious paid shills to attempt to dissuade actual and genuine PIs from supporting an EGM. The word's clearly gone out - Sando and his well-paid cronies seem to be getting more nervous about an EGM being called.

To correct a recent usual piece of deliberate disingenuousness from Ocelot, yes, 5% of the total voting share capital is needed to be able to call an EGM. However, if an EGM does take place, to pass any resolutions on the day, only 50.1% of the votes actually cast there and then are needed. Not the same yardstick at all - and of course, Sando and chums would have no ability to cast any votes themselves, since they don't currently own any shares.

Regardless of whether an EGM gets called or not, and regardless of whether any PI-originated resolutions get passed if there is an EGM, showing the ability and desire to call an EGM is pretty much the only way that PIs can keep a board of directors even vaguely honest, if the latter has shown itself to consistently view its investors with nothing but disinterest and contempt, as UKOG has done.

It is therefore no bad thing - completely separate to the fact that the nerves being displayed here by the company PR drones are also amusing.

"I don't know of any other AIM company who have directors who have given that commitment to purchase between 5 & 10% of salary to buy share in there own company every month for at least 12 months."

...but the two things you forget are:-

1. Given the way Sanderson has continually talked up this share in the past, how come he and the board have never bought in before? The only logical answer is that they never themselves believed the hype that they were continually spouting in order to part PIs from their hard-earned.

2. Even under this new (and to me, solely fear-caused) arrangement, all Sanderson and the BoD are actually doing is using nothing but PI-supplied funds to buy themselves a decidedly modest amount of shares per month. This is self-evident, since UKOG has next to no other income. So, I'm afraid it's not the board putting THEIR money where their mouth is at all. Instead and as usual, it's Sanderson and co putting OUR money where their mouth is.