Member Info for HeadInTheSand

This is actually brutally simple.

Sfby as a whole needs to be producing enough revenue by June to meet the not insubstantial first swathe of already incurred debt funding costs.

Sfby as a whole needs to be producing enough volume of gas as a whole to meet the hedge commitments from July and onwards for a further 35 months.

That's it.

Re the above absolutely crucial milestones, the company has restated its intentions to drill the sidetrack starting Jan 4th. That's now just six weeks away. Further to that, the company's still claiming mid Feb for first gas, though it's true that the latest revised CPR states mid-March.

However, as per the company's tweeted pix of last week, there's still no equipment on site and the necessary groundworks don't yet seem to have been undertaken. To my mind, that makes a Jan 4th sidetrack start date very unlikely and a mid-March first gas date equally unlikely.

So... how much gas and by when, George?

ED you're getting confused with your multiple IDs. That's the trouble with being deceptive - you keep needing to remember what you've previously made up.

The "Solo" you refer to in your last post is clearly Solo4Yous, one of your many IDs that you're currently using to copy n paste spam discussion boards with on AD*FN.

Oops...

One has to ask... why the increased desperation?

PeterA, you're of course right about the timescale required to fulfil hedge commitments (those don't start till July as we all know).

However, there are earlier time-critical points than that - whether relating to Yanis's raised "keeping the lights on" cash (I have no idea how much spare cash ANGS has on hand for this), or more importantly, relating to payments required against already incurred debt funding costs (and I'm not talking there about the recently pushed back Knowe liability).

ED, it seems to be you, not I, that's determined to speak "on behalf of the company".

I'm simply pointing out that ANGS regulatorily owes it to its investors (NB investors) to be transparent on key schedules as they change, given that the Sfby project has a time-critical element in terms of delivering sufficient revenues to meet debt financing costs.

Not that I needed to in the least, but with ANGS I've paid for my right to point such glaringly obvious things out, whether the ramptastic squad like it or (clearly and unsurprisingly) not.

That's the issue with truths... they can be inconvenient.

The issue isn't with projects slipping (projects almost always do).

The real issue is threefold.

1. ANGS is seemingly invariably overoptimistic with its timescale estimates. That is worth bearing in mind.

2. When ANGS finds out that it has been overoptimistic and something has slipped, it simply does not inform those who have funded it throughout its history of any revision in schedule in any sort of a timely manner. Instead it leaves already missed schedules out there as supposedly "latest information". That should categorically not be the case. If it has told the market in August that groundworks were starting in September and they don't, then re-inform the market as to the revised chedule. If it has assured the market that equipment will be onsite in October and it isn't, then re-inform the market as to the revised schedule. This is not rocket science - it's just proper practice.

3. On the same point, because of the nature of its various debt funding arrangements and the various paybacks required under those, getting to a sufficient amount of gas production is time-critical. Which makes keeping investors up to date with revised scheduling as soon as it's known even more crucial and essential.

Of course it's possible for ANGS to make a success of Sfby - and quite a sizeable one, if things go exactly the way it still hopes in terms of timescales and produceable volumes. But it owes it to its investors to be far more transparent than it ever has been or indeed is still being.

And that means real updates once schedules have been missed, not random Twitter pics.

Merely pointing out the eternal disconnects between ANGS's assurances and reality, that's all.

And given your endless copy n pasting of snippets of ANGS's RNSes over any bulletin board you can find, it's of course ironically amusing that you should gripe about my posting a couple of snippets from the exact self-same source.

From ANGS's RNS dated 3rd Jun 2021:

"Two gas compressors packages are currently being designed by specialist fabricators in Kent. Each unit is rated at 5 MMscf/d each with Caterpillar gas engines and Ariel reciprocating compressor sections. The engines and compressor ends have been identified and secured for the project. Delivery to site of the first pre-fabricated unit will be in October."

"Gas commercial sales meter and analyser skid incorporating state-of-the-art Honeywell equipment is completely designed and subsequently reviewed by the National Grid. The equipment is under fabrication in the UK working towards delivery in mid-July."

"Construction activities are planned over several months with multiple local specialist contractors. On site operations will commence in July with limited groundwork preparations on this pre-developed site. In situ fabrication of flowlines will commence in August and main production equipment will be connected as individual skid packages arrive."

From ANGS's RNS just two months later dated 2nd August 2021:

"Two gas compressor packages are being fabricated by specialist engineers in Kent. Caterpillar gas engines and Ariel reciprocating compressor sections have been ordered and delivery confirmed. Bulk materials for the skid-mounted unit and process manifolds fabrication have been ordered. The first complete gas compressor package will be delivered to site in November."

"Power generation with Caterpillar gas engine using fuel gas from the production process has been ordered. Electrical switchgear is included in the order. Delivery to site is in October."

"Construction activities will commence in August with limited groundwork and foundations preparation on this pre-developed site. In situ fabrication of flowlines will commence in September as well as installation of the ground flare."

And what are we being regaled with via ANGS's Twitter feed now? Some random pictures of equipment not on site, plus some pictures of the site with no equipment on it and apparently no concrete hardstanding having been laid or other groundworks having been done upon which to mount the equipment.

There are now 8 working days till the end of November. And just 25 working days till Christmas. Add another 3 and you'll then be into the New Year. Let's not forget, they're meant to be drilling their (imo very necessary) sidetrack in January...

Sorry George, random pics of second hand equipment somewhere (but still not on site) just don't cut it. How much gas and by when?

As expected... shown up as deceptive and so the tag team resort to insult.

You'd think the boiler room could do better...

Except you haven't spent any time at all doing any figures, did you? That's known as "a lie".

All you've done is to merely copy n paste (and literally word for word) from PeterAshbeck's post of 13:17 yesterday...

Now sure, feel free agree with PeterAshbeck if you like... but why pretend that you've worked this out yourself? You're just regurgitating something that suits your agenda.

Honestly, it seems that the ramp squad are literally incapable of not being deceptive.

It seems that the policy of care in the community clearly has a lot to answer for...

Remind me... what were spot prices on Oct 5th this year? And what difference did that make?

There is a 3rd possibility and one that's far more likely, given the fact that ED is running at least 20 different IDs on various share discussion bulletin boards...

I would suggest that ED has a permanently estranged relationship with the truth.

It's literally within seconds of each other. ED posts some massive copy n paste nonsense here in an effort to drown out less ramptastic comment from others... and within a minute or so, he makes the exact same post next door on AD*FN, using one of his several IDs over there (DaveMarn is his current favourite seemingly).

This is tragically transparent. Give it a rest, because it really isn't working.

ED, the primary reason you'll "never be silenced" is because you're ramping under numerous different IDs, both here and especially on AD*FN.

Sadly for you though, all your prodigious efforts seem to be having the exact opposite effect...

BV I suspect that's the only pic they could find with earthmoving/construction vehicles on site. I have some reasonable doubt it's a recently taken pic. I even wonder if those vehicles have anything to do with ANGS? Who knows how old that piccy is? It certainly doesn't seem to have been taken recently...

Okay maybe people with longer term experience are overly wary re all things ANGS (but after so many missed schedules, who could blame them?) but...

...re that latest tweet, anyone else thinking that it's a surprisingly sunny mid-November day in NorthEast Lincolnshire and the trees have all got a surprising amount of leaves on them?

Yanis, I've kind of presumed that the crucial intermediate steps required to get to first gas will be taken at some point...

...though the way things are going so far and given ANGS's stellar record of non-delivery on anything at all ever, it's a very fair point you make.

Caravanboy, we all (inevitably) make our own decisions and judgements. However, your nod to me and others of a more negative/more realistic (delete as appropriate) opinion was genuinely appreciated - I realise it can't have been the most pleasurable thing to type, so hats off to you.

I cannot speak for anyone else but me, but I've literally got no agenda apart from telling it like I honestly believe it to be, given my relatively lengthy experience with ANGS. Like all of us, I'll either be proved entirely right, or entirely wrong, or (most probably) somewhere in between.

One thing I am 100% damn sure about though is that it remains all and only about "how much gas and by when?" Nothing else matters and anything else is entirely irrelevant white noise.

Good luck to you.

Wildtiger, exactly right.

As I've stated several times, the non-stop copy n paste multi-forum ramp attempts being made on this share are even more damaging to ANGS's credibility than their own undeviating record of non-delivery.

So...

On the 8th Sep, we get a still pic on Twitter showing some blue rebuilt compressor kit (then apparently in the US).

Skip forward a month and...

On the 7th Oct, we get another still pic on Twitter showing some rusty pressure vessels somewhere apparently "close to completion".

Skip forward another 5 weeks and...

Today the 15th Nov, they've blown the multimedia budget and given us a 3 second video of just one random bloke with a spanner allegedly in Norfolk apparently "refurbishing a first gas engine". I wonder how long that'll take him?

I wonder what we'll get next month in this torturously sl-o-o-o-o-ow drip feed of nothing of significance. It's hardly a positive hive of activity, is it?