Member Info for HawaiifiveO

Interesting he said they have had talks with 'international groups' concerning the lithium (but probably the CLP itself) first time I have ever heard him say such a thing, it does suggest they are seeking a partner.

Direct link to media - once again Livesey looks relaxed and oblivious to the share price action, maybe he has 'a plan'

https://youtu.be/XOBFRuX5zeA

To be honest I do not think the near term cash position is a problem, at the end of June they had a net £200,000 and in October they raised another £550,000 net, if one assumes £40,000 a month burn then they have circa £450,000 currently.

They have flagged a tax refund of £400,000 in Q1 - if that comes in then clearly they have a runway to Q3, according to a couple of posters on A@VFN, they are not drilling until Q4 so major funding is not required for some time.

The recent SP Angel research note suggests the EIA in for Muratdere Turkey is imminent, they have said they already have approached royalty companies who would buy ORR's 1.2% royalty, my view is this could fetch at least $1.5m once the EIA is in place.

If they can sell that royalty and also receive the tax refund on time they may not need to dilute at all this year.

The main bone of contention seems to be moving forward, they really need a JV partner for Cameroon, or they need to sell Senala to fund Cameroon for the foreseeable, in other words stop the never ending dilution runway.

Remember they are also pursuing $1.4m in Turkey through the courts (also mentioned in the recent note) so who knows, it might come.

I think the main issue here, something which the BOD fail to acknowledge, is there are so many stale bulls and disillusioned holders that are effecting sentiment - what is needed is a flushing event, a strong share price spike, such an event would allow the stale bulls out and bring in new investors with positivity and energy to promote the company.

Many suggest that posts on bulletin boards make no difference to a share price - that is wrong with small caps, sentiment is key.

Clearly the £3.5m m/cap is a anomaly, buying the shares at this level will duly reward IMO.

It looks like they may have a material lithium deposit on their hands, the RNS mentions 9km !

Lithium is the buzzword in the sector currently.

On AIM sentiment can turn in a flash, just look at what has happened at VAST - up 400% in a few days.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/oriole-resources-plc--orr-/rns/lithium-pegmatites-confirmed-at-the-clp-project/202302020700046614O/

I have been following MTL for a number of years, took a small part in the shareholder action when the shares were suspended, it was deemed likely the major shareholders would take the mine and leave equity holders with nothing, it never happened, since then the company has been rejuvenated by the appointment of a new CEO.

The interesting aspect is that Livesey is now a Non Exec on their board, the major shareholders of MTL are Nick Candy and a fellow called Nick Edwards - Candy is a purported billionaire and has made a small packet out of his stake in MTL over recent times by charging penal interest rates on his loans and by buying MTL's bank debt for a fraction of it's worth and making the company pay back 100% of the same loan, he will now gain from his equity stake as the shares re-rate over the next 6/12/18 months.

MTL have now paid back the penal loan and are now throwing off cash, the interesting aspect is this statement made yesterday in their update 'and to look at appropriate acquisition opportunities'

I would suggest that the Cameroon Central Licence Package may appeal to a company backed by the likes of Candy, what a ego trip it would be for him to be part of a brand new gold mining destination, MTL could pick up a decent slice for a modest sum and this investment would financially secure ORR for many years ahead.

I have wondered about Livesey joining the BOD of MTL - they are a gold producer in the Philippines - it does make the mind wander if there may be mutually beneficial reasons, stranger things have happened.

SP Angel has released a in depth research note on Oriole, it is quite lengthy, they suggest the company is undervalued to peers.

Interestingly they suggest the Muratdere EIA is due shortly - if so this would enable ORR to finally sell the royalty, could be worth $1.5m IMO.

Worth a read.

https://wp-orioleresources-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/02/Oriole-Resources-Initiation-Note-Non-Independent-01.02.2023.pdf

Elephant Oil now shows on the NASDAQ website.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ipos/overview?dealId=1164147-102522

The late flurry of buying is typical of news being lodged, some have speculated that an update will come by month end, we will see tomorrow.

Para 3 should read

at 3p the company would only be valued at £60m

Todays results and the very meaningful full repayment of the penal interest debt leaves very little of concern - I see a material rerating ahead - the company has demonstrated it's ability to pay down debt quickly and operational performance has been excellent.

The current sub £35m m/cap is a anomaly therefore - the remaining debt £64m - will be paid down quickly, at 3p the company would only be valued at £90m - for each £25m of debt reduction adds 1.25p to the share price in value.

All being well this could be trading above 5p in by Q3

Am sorry to say that I stand by my post a week ago where I suggested that if there had been strong interest in the sale process Condor shares would be rising. My view is that interest is poor, the longer there is no update the more I believe this is the actuality.

Child & Co have really, and I mean really, messed this up big time, Mellon's greed (demanding warrants and conversion at a miserable 15p on a measly $1m loan) simply goes to show he does not believe offers will be anything like the value he was promoting at Master Investor a few years ago, he implied value circa 75p-£1 a share.

No wonder Child is keeping a low profile, he has mislead the shareholder base for ever and an age, flip flopping from one scenario to another, now simply playing for time, extracting the last bean of shareholder cash in salary and expenses.

It's a darn poor show all around.

SP Angel have compiled commentary on today's update, interestingly there is no mention of the cash position or the clear need for more cash (no surprise there) but plenty of geologist waffle and some discussion on the work programmes ahead.

First paragraph continues to suggest they seek value from legacy assets, well they have been saying this for 4 years now.

Have checked the Muratdere website, still no news on the EIA which was presented in June last year, this is the only saleable asset ORR has.

https://wp-orioleresources-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/01/Oriole-Resources-Flash-Note-Non-Independent-30.01.2023.pdf

I really do not want to go over old ground with my concerns about management but I suspect we are not a million miles away from a share consolidation - the SP is once again flirting with .10p par value level, given recent placing discounts have been as high as 50% (see BEM) the current share price is not in a comfortable place for a raise therefore, you can bet they have their eye on this aspect.

Unfortunately recent SP weakness once again revolves around the cash position, the burn runs at £50k a month, OK they are taking shares in lieu of salary currently but this simply dilutes current shareholders, the question has to be asked does a £3m m/cap company need 5 directors who draw circa £500k a year - the answer is NO.

Rather than cut executive pay they actually increased it last year by promoting an employee to the BOD, no other peer company increased BOD costs in the same way as far as I can evaluate.

The question has to be asked is Oriole a pure 'lifestyle' operation, given the long winded projects (it is a known fact that a project like Cameroon may take 7+ years to commercialise) one has to ask what is in in for new investors other than hoping hoops to avoid the next inevitable placing , in my view the answer is yes it is a lifestyle company.

The current BOD have done very little since their appointment, the Senala JV was already there, all 'legacy assets' remain or have diminished in value, they have failed to realise any meaningful value from them as they implied early doors, the Cameroon project was acquired as a result of the CEO's former company ditching it - there has not been any meaningful corporate activity (as suggested by Livesey when he was appointed) the share count has gone from 470m to 2.5 billion in 4 years - all legacy Stratex shareholders (deemed a nuisance by the BOD BTW) have been wiped out as have the few 5%+ stakeholders that they inherited.

Livesey and Co have become aloof and disingenuous to shareholder concerns, note to joviality on those Proactive interviews, folk on the BB who suggest they have no interest in their retail investors are 100% correct, many are 80% down - the never ever have !

The best onlookers can hope for is the next pump where you may get a 30% rise, this usually comes ahead of a cash raise BTW.

DYOR etc

I have never ever known a process being conducted in the City that does not leak or entities being aware of how the process is going.

The complete lack of interest/volume in Condor stock, no large trades, nothing, suggests to me that the process is not going well, or if offers are being made they are at the very low end of the valuation spectrum, these would not suit Mellon & Co.

Surely if the advisors are being bombarded with meaningful offers this would have leaked, there would be buyers of Condor shares.

Before anyone suggests that insiders etc cannot trade or there are Chinese walls may I respectfully suggest they are not living in the real world. The process is approaching 2 months, the longer silence remains from the company the more likely the above scenario applies IMO.

I have a position here with a low average BTW.

That 2.6p near term target looks on, possibly today, the next move would be to 3.5p.

It is clear demand for the shares appeared late PM yesterday, it may suggest a RNS is in the wings, entities seem very determined to get their hands on the shares early doors also.

The matter is not entirely about charting, it is about sentiment, a historic low PE is a catalyst for buyers to enter in the knowledge they are near basement levels, yesterday the modest volume kick moved the share price 15%, the drop from 3.5p has been on very low volume so it is obvious it will rise equally quickly when buy volumes increase.

I stand by my view that 2.6p and 3.5p are near term targets.

I appreciate that might not suit everyone's agenda !

A few weeks back I suggested the RSI on Xtract was at a 4 year low and expected to see a significant bounce, if the shares break past 2.1p tomorrow there is no chart resistance to 2.6p and very little thereafter to 3.5p

The RSI is still in neutral territory which suggests there is decent upside ahead before the price action moves into overbought levels - I expect to see 2.6p reached therefore.

I wonder if Zak will chart XTR tomorrow, my view is it is time to buy the lows.

Hardly anything available online towards the close.

I have a small position in Rambler.

I initially thought the suspension and financial reorganisation would be resolved reasonably quickly, comments from John Meyer (SP Angel, the Nomad) saying he could not understand why the stock needed to be suspended aligned with my thought process.

As time has ticked by it seems, despite many initiatives by Rambler (cost cutting, hedging etc), a rising copper/gold price and generally improving market conditions, there is still no agreement with Newgen.

In my view the longer the delay the more likely a settlement will not be reached, there is no real explanation from the company. Toby Bradbury (the CEO) has continually pointed out how Ramblers gold/copper reserves is inconsistent to the modest debt position, this in my considered opinion makes it even more unusual that an agreement has not been reached by now.

I am bracing to lose my entire investment here, in my view if Newgen wanted to play ball they would have done so by now, what is there to discuss after all, either they agree to restructure their loan or not, it should not take circa 3 months to decide.

I fear Newgen's actions will wipe out shareholders, the loan arrangement was woeful, to offer the entire assets of Rambler against a $20m facility was abysmal, I sincerely hope I am wrong but the last update had shades of grey in it which I feel is ominous.

As for John Meyer suggesting that Toby Bradbury is a 'consummate professional' well as a shareholder I could use other summaries !

What I can never understand with these research notes is why the covering brokers clients are not flooding into the aforementioned stock.

So First Equity have a target price of 2.8p for Red Rock yet the shares are trading at 0.26p - let us see how many FE clients buy today !

https://www.rrrplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/FEQ-Red-Rock-Resources-19-01-23-Buy-Note.pdf